PARX Racing Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free PARX Racing Racing Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
PARX Racing – 11-11-2024
Race 1 -Female
5 – Pretty Lily– She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, she has the highest last race speed rating and she has a high % winning trainer.
2 – Afterneath – She drops in class today, switches to a high % winning jockey and she has high % winning trainer.
7 – Flag Song Flyin – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, her best dirt speed is faster than the avg winning speed and she has high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
9 – Ode to Edie – She bobbled at the start causing a poor finish, can improve while returning to a sprint and she has high % winning trainer and jockey.
$.50 Pick 4: 2,5,7,9/1,3,7,9/1,4/3,9,10 – Cost $48.00
Race 2
7 – Key Stat– He finished 4th in his last start as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 30% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and he has a high % winning jockey.
3 – Spinning Heart – He finished 3rd in his last race at Keenland, he switches to a high % winning trainer who wins 30% of the races in the 1st race after claiming a horse and switches to a high % winning jockey.
9 – Maliblue – He ran 2nd in his last race, he has the highest last race speed rating and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Sir Palace Prince – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, the rail post is winning at an 18% clip and he has a trainer who wins 25% of the race’s maiden claiming races he has a horse competing in.
$.50 Pick 4: 1,3,7,9/1,3,4,6/3,9/1,2,7 – Cost $48.00
Race 3 -Female
4 – Tres Maria’s Dream – She has won three out of her last four starts, she has a trainer who wins 44% of the races a horse when dropping a horse off a win.
1 – Solemn Oath – She won her last race at PARX Racing; she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and she high % winning jockey Paco Lopez.
3 – Secret Temptation – She finished in the money in her last six starts, winning three races, switches to a high % winning trainer who wins 41% of the races in the 1st race after claiming a horse.
Longshot:
6 – Expect to Be Ready – She won her last race at PARX Racing and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
7 – Popthechampagne Ro
2 – Black Ice
$.50 Pick 4: 1,3,4,6/3,5,9,10/1,2/3,4,7 – Cost $48.00
Race 4
9 – Borracho Concho – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Sleipnir – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, his early speed running style helps chances so the shorter distance may help and he has a high % winning trainer.
10 – Strasse – He has the highest last race speed rating and his early speed running style helps chances so the shorter distance will be a plus.
Longshot:
5 – Heavy Timber – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 66% of the races when using 2nd time Lasix and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Chochocho
$.50 Pick 4: #3,5,9,10/1,2,4,7/3,4,7,10/3,5 – Cost $48.00
Race 5
1 – This Run’s for You – He has won three races out of his last seven races, finishing 3rd in the last start, the rail post is winning at a 21% clip he has high % winning jockey.
2 – Jake Rocks – He finished 3rd in his last race, he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Rebel Empire – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, and he has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
4 – Sophia’s Prince – He has won two races in a row and now goes for a hat trick and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
6 – Rob the Rich
9 – Liberty Star
Race 6
7 – Divine Miracle – He likes PARX Racing finishing in the money in 70% of the races, winning 41% of the starts, and distance will not be a problem as he has finished in the money in 70% of the races, winning 41% of the starts.
4 – Roan Mountain – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and he has high % winning jockey Paco Lopez.
3 – Group Hug – He has finished in the money in two out of his last three starts, he has a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
10 – Berks – He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and switches to a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
9 – People Force
8 – Iconic Legacy
$.50 Pick 4: #3,4,7,10/3,5/1,8,11/1,5,9,11 – Cost $48.00
Race 7
3 – Winning Time – He ran 3rd in his last race, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and he has a high % winning trainer and he high % winning jockey Paco Lopez.
5 – I Don’t See Colors – He has finished in the money in his last four starts, winning two of the races, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a high % winning jockey.
6 – Light the Way – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, his early speed running style helps chances so the shorter distance may help and he has high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
7 – Catty’s Uncle – He likes PARX Racing finishing in the money in 58% of the races, winning 13% of the starts, and distance will not be a problem as he has finished in the money in 83% of the races, winning 33% of the starts and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
2 – All American Rod
1 – Dream Knight
Bet: $20.00 Win & $30.00 Place: #3 – $1.00 Exacta Box: #3,5,6,7 – $4.00 Exacta: 3/5,6,7 – $5.00 DD: 3/1,7,8,11
Race 8
11 – Dylan’s Ruby – He likes PARX Racing finishing in the money in 86% of the races, winning 14% of the starts, and distance will not be a problem as he has finished in the money in 75% of the races, winning 25% of the starts.
8 – Ninja Prize – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, his early speed running style helps his chances and he has a high % winning jockey.
1 – Whiskeyromeosierra – He won his last race; the rail post is winning at a 18% clip and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
7 – Clever Tiger – He has won two of his last three races and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Jewels in the Bay
2 – Mr Sandman
Race 9 -Female
11 – Old Head – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, she has the highest last race speed rating and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
9 – Erin’s Enthusiasm – She has finished in the money in her last three races, winning her last race at PARX Racing and she can handle the distance.
1 – La Cienega – She has won 25% of her starts at PARX Racing and she has a high % winning trainer who wins 25% of the races when dropping a horse off a win and she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Angelic Storm – She has finished in the money in three races out of her last four starts, winning her last race at PARX Racing and she has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
7 – Parisian Vibe
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 7th Race – #3 – Winning Time
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 24% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Plus, 4+ Similar Discount
5 – PRETTY LILY – TLRSP#+3, better fractions and early pace in his last
2 – AFTERNEATH – first race at PARX – class and track dropper – SIM FAV
9 – ODE TO EDIE – sizable class drop to lowest level of her career
7 – FLAG SONG FLYIN – better pace from the middle out in last
Race 2: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 35% w2w – PP: Inside Out, 8+ Only Under Par
7 – KEY STAT – lone horse with a PAR race on recent resume and better ATB – major improvement in only other 2nd up
9 – MALIBLUE – TOP TOTAL PACE +9 – TLRSP#+6
3 – SPINNING HEART – Ness/Sanchez – track dropper and bullet work between races
10 – STORM WATCH – maybe most upside in only 2nd start – speed and fade in debut – two works and cuts back in distance
Race 3: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed, 39% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bonus, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Fair
1 – SOLEMN OATH – better middle out and you can’t pass on PACO
6 – EXPECT TO BE READY – likely pacesetter – this is the distance 7/5-1-0 only 2 wins in 23 at any other
7 – POPTHECHAMPAGNE RO – only comfort zone above 50%
8 – HELEONORTIZ – speed figures climbing – much better fractions despite going longer
Race 4: 5 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 58% w2w – PP: Outside In – No Big Edge or Discount
10 – STRASSE – TLRSP#+7 – drops to his lowest level of career
9 – BORRACHO CONCHO – 2nd at this level two back – same tr/owner
5 – HEAVY TIMBER – another running at the lowest level of his career – trainer 10/15 second lasix
4 – CHOCHOCHO – maybe too much early speed for the rest
Race 5: 6 ½ Furlong – Bias: Stalkers, 35% w2w – PP: Inside Out with Strong Rail
1 – THIS RUN’S FOR YOU – faster fractions despite going ½ furlong more – distance 4/0-1-3
7 – REBEL EMPIRE – Ness/Silvera – just missed at this level last out with better 2/4f
9 – LIBERTY STAR – PACO better ATB – race sneakily faster last out
2 – JAKE ROCKS – track dropper with the most back class
Race 6: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 38% w2w – PP: 1-3 Fair, 4-7 Discount, 8+ By Far Best
7 – DIVINE MIRACLE – distance 6/4-0-1 – better 2/4 pace in last
3 – GROUP HUG – top TOTAL PACE +8 – Ness/Rodriguez – more distance today could help
6 – LEVEL UP – smoked winning by 12 lengths – better fractions TLRSP# +3
10 – BERKS – Ness/Sanchez – been off since March – nice works – winner 10/21 on a fast track
Race 7: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 35% w2w – PP: Inside Out, 8+ Only Under Par
5 – I DON’T SEE COLORS – TLRSP#+13 – one of two that have a PAR race
3 – WINNING TIME – good chance to be better in 2nd up – PACO and never off the board in 6
6 – LIGHT THE WAY – better pace early in last – in for a check on the big class drop – not in for a price
2 – ALL AMERICAN ROD – either if his first two would do, needs to rebound from last in 2nd up
Race 8: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 35% w2w – PP: Inside Out, 8+ Only Under Par
1 – WHISKEYROMEOSIERRA – 3rd up – TLRSP# +3 and only other 3rd up saw a big jump
8 – NINJA PRIZE – top TOTAL PACE+5 – is SIM FAV – very consistent performer
11 – DYLAN’S RUBY – most back class and cuts in distance in 3rd up too
4 – JEWELS IN THE BAY – been off since July – a lot of works – should be fit
Race 9: 6 ½ Furlong – Bias: Stalkers, 35% w2w – PP: Inside Out with Strong Rail
11 – OLD HEAD – TLRSP#+4 and just missed at this level last out – could bump in 2nd up
8 – DANTASTIC – tr/owner same – bombed in last – has rebounded next out following a bad race
1 – LA CIENEGA – rides the hot rail and could be the pacesetter
9 – ERIN’S ENTHUSIASM – tough call over the 6 – big win in her last and is in form now
