PARX Racing Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free PARX Racing Racing Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
PARX Racing – 11-18-2024
Race 1 -Female
7 – La Tourista – She drops in class today, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 39% of the races when taking a horse down 2+ classes and she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
5 – Mercy Mercy – Her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Rainbow Trout – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, she has the highest last race speed rating and her best dirt speed is close to the avg winning speed.
Longshot:
4 – Luna T – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race and she has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Gangster Rap
1 – Lois
Race 2 -Female
5 – Creative Copy – She has finished in the money in four out of the last five starts, winning three races and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Catti La Belle – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last two races at PARX Racing and the distance will not be a problem.
6 – Heart Light – She likes PARX Racing finishing in the money in 77% of the races, winning 31% of the starts, and distance will not be a problem as he has finished in the money in 82% of the races, winning 36% of the starts.
Longshot:
1 – More Ransom – She has won two races out of the last four starts, has a trainer who wins 19% of the races in the 2nd after race after claiming a horse.
Alternate:
4 – Bunny Bonus
2 – Obstinate
$.50 Pick 4: 1,3,5,6/3,5,6/3,6/2,3,4,7 – Cost $48.00
Race 3 -Female
5 – Napolitan – She finished 2nd in her last start as the favorite but has a trainer who wins 20% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
3 – La de Peluche – She has a high % winning jockey and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
6 – End of the Rainbow – She drops in class today and she has the highest last race speed rating.
Longshot:
2 – Winbori – She has a trainer who wins 19% of the maiden claiming races a horse he trains runs in.
Alternate:
1 – Gwen Stacy
Race 4
6 – Fully Committed – He finished 2nd vs similar in his last race, he has a trainer who wins 17% of the races in the 2nd after race after claiming a horse and he has a high % winning jockey.
3 – Four Days Early – He drops in class today and his best dirt speed is faster than the avg winning speed.
2 – E T’s Evasive Moon – He drops in class today, has a high % winning trainer who wins 18% of the maiden claiming race he has a horse competing in.
Longshot:
1 – Buchies Packin – He is a first-time starter whose Dam has 3 winners from 4 starters, the rail post is winning at a19% clip and he has a trainer who wins 20% of the races with 1st time starters.
Alternate:
4 – Splitting Stones
$.50 Pick 4: #1,2,3,6/3,4/1,3,4,5/1,4,6 – Cost $48.00
Race 5 -Female
4 – Maximus Angelicus – She finished 3rd in her last start, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 28% of the races in a horse’s 1st route race, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a high % winning jockey.
3 – Alyvia Mavis – She finished 2nd in her last race at PARX Racing, she has the highest last race speed rating and she has a high % winning jockey.
7 – Carousel Queen – She has a trainer who wins 28% of the races in a horse’s 1st race at a route and has a good 4F workout on Nov-06.
Longshot:
2 – Mary Loves Louie – She has a high % winning jockey and has a several good workout in a row.
Alternate:
5 – Vague
6 – Fur Elise
Race 6
5 – Reelin N Dealin – He drops in class today, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 60% of the races in a horse’s 2nd race at a route and he has a high % winning jockey.
3 – Au Some Warrior – He has a trainer who wins 20% of the Maiden Sp Wt races a horse he trains runs in, he has a high % jockey and blinkers added today.
4 – Okie Den Den – He drops in class and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Dancing On Air – He can improve while trying dirt, the longer distance offers hope for improvement and the rail post is winning at a 21% clip.
Alternate:
2 – Fenton Forever
6 – Regalpains
Race 7 -Female
6 – Tempting Lady – She finished 3rd in her last start, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a high % winning jockey.
4 – Lady Sriracha – She finished 3rd in her last race at Laurel Park, drops in class and she has a trainer who wins 26% of the maiden claiming race a horse he trains runs in.
1 – Jess’s Moment – She finished in the money in the last four races finishing 3rd vs similar in her last race and the rail post is winning at a19% clip.
Longshot:
2 – Spanish Girl – She finished 2nd in her last race and she has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Angel of Harle
7 – Sweet Distraction
$.50 Pick 4: #1,2,3,4,6/2,3,5,6/3/1,8,9,10,12 – Cost $50.00
Race 8 -Female
6 – Lost Love – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, winning the previous race and she has a high % winning trainer.
5 – Vanellope – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, she has a high % winning jockey and blinkers added today.
3 – Lady Robo – She won her last race and she has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
2 – Banana Split– She won her last race and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
4 – She Can Scat – She has the best dirt speed among today’s starters.
Race 9 -Female
3 – Dazzy – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 30% of the races in the 2nd after race after claiming a horse and has a high % winning jockey.
4 – Reassess – She has finished in the money in five out of the seven career starts, winning two races and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Xtra Extraordinary – She has won two races out of the last four starts, drops in class today and she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Melody’s Kiss – She has won two races in a row and now goes for a hat trick and she can handle the distance.
Alternate:
2 – Jody’s Ruby
1 – Betsy Is the Gal
Bet: $24.00 Win: #3 – $2.00 Exacta Box: #3,4,5,6 – $4.00 Exacta: 3/4,5,6 – $5.00 DD: 3,4/1,9,10,12
Race 10
1 – Starlord – He won his last race, he switches to high % jockey Paco Lopez and the rail post is winning at a19% clip.
12 – Separate Ways – His early speed running style helps chances and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
10 – One America – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
9 – Optimistic Nate – He won his last race earning the highest last race speed rating.
Alternate:
8 – Dos de Oros
4 – Secret Saturday
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 9th Race – #3 – Dazzy
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 24% w2w – PP: Inside Out, 4+ Discount
7 – LA TOURISTA – doesn’t look like it in PPs, but should be forward, lowest level in last 10
5 – MERCY MERCY – 3 sp# increases – consistent performer – PACO
2 – RAINBOW TROUT – off since Feb – solid set of works prepping
4 – LUNA T – wide trip in last, bounce back coming in 2nd up?
Race 2: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed, 39% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair, 4-7 Small Discount
5 – CREATIVE COPY – TLRSP# and could take it higher in 2nd up
1 – MORE RANSOM – a little better late in her last – Top EP and LP
3 – CATTI LA BELLE – very consistent performer and her average race good enough to win
6 – HEART LIGHT – 3 SP# increases and ITM 9/11 at the distance – by far best C-Zone
Race 3: 1 1/8 Miles – Bias: Stalkers, 4/10 w2w – PP: None from Rail, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Best, 8+ None
6 – END OF THE RAINBOW – TLRSP# +4, and only horse with a Par race on resume
5 – NAPOLITAN – top TOTAL PACE +5 – better ATB in last
3 – LA DE PELUCHE – ITM 5/10 so far – 2nd last out
1 – GWEN STACY – take any of the rest – all are about the same – most LP here
Race 4: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 36% w2w – PP: Inside Out, 8+ Discount
6 – FULLY COMMITTED – TLRSP# +4 and top TOTAL PACE +7
3 – FOUR DAYS EARLY – lone horse with a Par race on resume – 3rd up and class drop
1 – BUCHIES PACKIN – not much to beat for this first timer
2 – E T’S EVASIVE MOON – maybe too much early speed for the rest
Race 5: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed, 39% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair, 4-7 Small Discount
4 – MAXIMUS ANGELICUS – on the front – major C-Zone edge – MSW Dropper – PACO
3 – ALYVIA MAVIS – TLRPS#+10 – faster by more than a second
7 – CAROUSEL QUEEN – best published work since her last
6 – FUR ELISE – tough call over the 5, should be better in 2nd up and return to dirt
Race 6: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 38% w2w – PP: Inside Out
5 – REELIN N DEALIN – rerun his debut and it’s a wrap – bounce back needed
3 – AU SOME WARRIOR – consistent performer that has been getting quicker at the start
6 – REGALPAINS – TLRSP#+7, a ton of LP relative to the rest
2 – FENTON FOREVER – none have hit PAR for this level – need to have the lone firster
Race 7: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 24% w2w – PP: Inside Out, 4+ Discount
3 – ANGEL OF HARLEM – been off for morse than a year, a pair of 4f works in 46 and change – could come out flying
4 – LADY SRIRACHA – most consistent performer in the race
6 – TEMPTING LADY – TLRSP#+5, one of two with a par race on the recent resume
7 – SWEET DISTRACTION – 3rd up and lowest level of her career
Race 8: 1 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 37% w2w – PP: 1-3 Fair, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Bonus
3 – LADY ROBO – won last big with faster fractions despite going longer
6 – LOST LOVE – just missed last out and another that race faster with better 2/4 pace
4 – SHE CAN SCAT – lone horse with a par race on recent resume
5 – VANELLOPE – SIM FAV in the 3rd up
Race 9: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 34% w2w – PP: Inside Out, 4+Discount
3 – DAZZY – TLRSP# +11 – SIM FAV – PACO and Jamie Ness
5 – XTRA EXTRAORDINARY– Kentucky track dropper in 3rd up
6 – MELODY’S KISS – unbeaten in a pair at PARX – off the board in 5/5 elsewhere – horse for the course for sure
4 – REASSESS – might be a turf horse, but just has some fast Parx dirt works – first PARX race
Race 10: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 36% w2w – PP: Inside Out, 8+ Discount
9 – OPTIMISTIC NATE – TLRSP#+3 – should be forward and maintenance work
10 – ONE AMERICA – track dropper – OK record in first up
1 – STARLORD – PACO coming off a win that was better ATB
11 – CHECKING BOXES – has hit par and had better fractions last out
