Churchill Downs Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free Churchill Downs Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
Churchill – 11-20-2024
Race 1-Female
2 – Citizen Judy – She drops in class today, she has the highest last race speed rating and she has a high % winning trainer who wins 27% of the races when taking blinkers off.
6 – Evalina – She has the best dirt speed which is fastest among today’s starters and she has a good 4F workout on Nov-08.
4 – Tegwar – She finished poorly in her last race after breaking out at the start and being bumped and drops in class today and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Parisian Light – She drops in class today, should improve while returning to dirt, has a trainer who wins 25% of the races when taking a horse from a maiden to a maiden claiming race.
Alternate:
9 – Kate Wins
Race 2
1 – Went West – He won his last race, he has the highest last race speed rating and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
6 – Fort Warren – He drops in class today and has a high % winning trainer who wins 24% of the races in the 2nd start a horse he trains competes in.
2 – President Z – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 23% of the claiming races a horse he trains runs in and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Background – He has a trainer who wins 26% in the 1st after claiming a horse and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
$.50 Pick 4: 1,2,3,6/1,2,3,4,5/1,8/3,5 – Cost $40.00
Race 3
1 – Coalmoon – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a high % winning trainer.
2 – Il Marchesse – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer.
3 – South Bend Tom – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 23% of the races when taking the blinkers off a horse he trains.
Longshot:
5 – Lured Away – He ran 2nd in his last race and has a high % winning trainer who wins 18% of the 2nd route race a horse he trains competes in.
Alternate:
4 – Gallo de Fuego
6 – Baby Max
Race 4 -Female
8 – Shancelicious – She is a first-time starter whose Sire wins 31% of the races with 1st time starters and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Dinahs Girl – She finished 3rd vs tougher in her last race, drops in class today, he has the highest last race speed rating and the rail post is winning at a 19% clip.
10 – Bella Vittoria – She finished 3rd vs tougher in her last race, drops in class today and has a high % winning trainer who wins 28% of the maiden claiming races a horse he trains competes in.
Longshot:
7 – Next Agenda – She is a first-time starter whose Sire wins 16% of the races with a 1st time Starters, her Dam has 3 winners from 4 starters and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
5 – Melittlefrostgirl
Race 5
5 – J J’s Ranger – He won his last race, has a high % winning trainer who wins 30% of the claiming races a horse he trains competes in and he has a high % winning jockey.
3 – Lend It Tewmey – He finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today and has the highest last race speed rating.
4 – Rewire – He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
1 – Jammin Justice – He drops in class today and blinkers added today.
Alternate:
2 – Tap the Candy
6 – Untroubled
Bet: $4.00 Exacta: #5/1,3,4
Race 6-Female
2 – Windy Walk – She has won two races in a row and now goes for a hat trick and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Lucy Got Game – She has won two out of her last four starts and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Low Country Magic – She ran 2nd in her last race, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
4 – Wee Bit O Mischief – She won her last race and her best dirt speed is close to the avg winning speed.
Alternate:
5 – Crazy Cami
3 – Crushed Ice
$.50 Pick 4: 2,7/1,2,7/2,6,7,8/4,6,8,10 – Cost $48.00
Bet: $16.00 Win & $20.00 Place: #2 – $6.00 Exacta: #2/4,6,7 – $2.00 DD: 2/1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9
$.50 Pick 3: #2,7/1,2,4,7/2,6,7,8
Race 7
1 – Summer Splash – He has won three out of her last six starts, the rail post is winning at 18% clip and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Briterdayzahead – He has won two races in a row and now goes for a hat trick and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Top Gun Tommy – He has been competing in Southern California earning the best dirt speed among today’s starters (tie) and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
4 – Solidify – He has finished 3rd in his last two races, drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
8 – Lunar Module
5 – Tallahatchiebridge
Race 8
8 – Raging – He won his last race, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 80% of the races in a horse’s 1st race at route and he has a high % winning jockey.
7 – Shogun Be Fast – He ran 2nd in his last race and the distance will not be a problem.
6 – Own the Field – He has finished in the money in four out of his last six starts, winning one of the races and he has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
2 – Atlantic Dancer – He has finished in the money in three out of his last four starts, winning one of the races and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
3 – I’m Your Man
Race 9
6 – Ember – He ran 2nd in his last start, has a high % winning trainer who wins 21% of the races in the 1st race after claiming a horse and he has a high % winning jockey.
4 – Business Model – He drops in class today, has the highest last race speed rating and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
8 – Rocco Strong – He drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer who wins 33% of the races when dropping a horse down 2+ classes.
Longshot:
10 – Category Ten – He finished 2nd in his last start as the favorite but has a trainer who wins 21% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
7 – Koselio
3 – Icarus
Best Bet of the Day at Churchill – 6th Race – #2 – Windy Walk
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 7 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 2 races, 1 w2w, other Co-Pilot – PP: Both Wins 8+
2 – CITIZEN JUDY – going to get the lead and could be hard to catch
10 – BONITA SONG – first timer vs a bunch that haven’t been anywhere near par
6 – EVALINA – been well bet in both races – rebound to debut gives her a chance – solid works
1 – ADRIAN – Lone Pure MSW dropper in 2nd career race – most untapped upside
Race 2: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 21% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Best, 4-7 Small Discount, 8+ Fair
1 – WENT WEST – better pace, better fractions, TLRSP#+7
2 – PRESIDENT Z – SIM FAV with top PAR+
6 – FORT WARREN – likely front runner – top C-ZONE – 3rd up with most back class
3 – BACKGROUND – it’s a little wet today and he has some of his best efforts on a wet track
Race 3: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 25% w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Fair
1 – COALMOON – only horse with a PAR race and TLRSP#+9
6 – BABY MAX – taking a shot here, comes the closest to par for the rest with top end 2nd race improvement and has solid work between races – just needs a better start
4 – GALLO DE FUEGO – SIM FAV with the best PAR+
7 – SUPER SNOOP – great chance to be on the lead and 2nd race improvement
Race 4: 5 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 55% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Discount
Have to focus on 1st timers since none of the experienced horses have hit par
8 – SHANCELICIOUS – Wesley Ward 1st timer 2.9/3 – best works – IMO
7 – NEXT AGENDA – strong breeding, decent works
1 – DINAHS GIRL – better 2/4 pace in last with faster fractions – signs of life
4 – NOLA LOUISE – tough call over the 2, but trainer hits at 17% with first timers
Race 5: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 28% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair
5 – J J’S RANGER – smoked around the track with better EP and early fractions – top TOTAL PACE +13
3 – LEND IT TEWMEY – one of two with a PAR race on recent resume – better ATB – drops in class
6 – UNTROUBLED – lone E that should be on the lead
4 – REWIRE – the other with a recent PAR run – highly consistent performer
Race 6: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 25% w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Fair
2 – WINDY WALK – winner two in a row – winner 3/5 at CD – risk to regress
7 – LUCY GOT GAME – moving up the speed ladder – won lone CD race in a blowout
6 – LOW COUNTRY MAGIC – chance to be LONE E – bullet work in mud between races – TLRSP#+3
5 – CRAZY CAMI – resume says 3rd up should look a lot like the last race
Race 7: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 25% w2w – PP: Inside Out, 8+ Hard to Win
7 – BRITERDAYZAHEAD – Top TOTAL PACE+6 and should be pacesetter – plenty of back class for 2nd up
1 – SUMMER SPLASH – off since Aug 12th, plenty of good works preparing
5 – TALLAHATCHIEBRIDGE – taking a shot – 3rd up – closer with high end upside – tr 19% off the claim
2 – TOP GUN TOMMY – comes in from the West Coast – numbers there are good, but works at CD suspect
Race 8: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 25% w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Fair
8 – RAGING – should be on the lead with a big EP edge -TLRSP#+3
1 – ROUSSETTE – 2nd up should look like 1st up – last was good enough and winner 2/3 at CD
6 – OWN THE FIELD – a little better ATB and drops in class
7 – SHOGUN BE FAST – should be forward – a little faster fractions despite going longer
Race 9: 1 1/8 Miles – Bias: Closers, 0/8 w2w – PP: Outside In – None from Rail
8 – ROCCO STRONG – left arrow horse that should be forward – been facing tougher
4 – BUSINESS MODEL – TLRSP# and drops in class with a maintenance work
3 – ICARUS – lowest level in last 10 in 3rd up
6 – EMBER – trainer solid off the claim – 1st at CD – works are eh
