PARX Racing Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free PARX Racing Racing Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
PARX Racing – 9-24-2024
Race 1
7 – Fully Committed – He finished 2nd vs similar in his last race, he has the highest last race speed rating and he has a high % winning trainer.
5 – Rolly – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, has a high % winning trainer who wins 18% of the races with horses in maiden claiming races, and the shorter distance should help.
9 – Why Stop There – He drops in class today and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
8 – Pacific States – He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a good 4F workout on Sep-14.
Alternate:
4 – Texas Air Force
3 – Lord Seabee
Race 2-Female
2 – Bitcoin Baby – She ran 2nd vs tougher in her last race, drops in class today, she has a high % winning jockey and she switches to a high % winning trainer.
1 – Rock Me Gently – She finished 3rd vs tougher in her only start, drops in class today and the rail post is winning at a18% clip.
6 – Deadly Angel – She is a first-time starter; she has a trainer who wins 18% of the races with horses in maiden claiming races and she has a good 3F workout on Sep-18.
Longshot:
5 – Imperio Azteca – She has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Brownisthenewblack
4 – Internet Bidder
$.50 Pick 4: 1,2,3,4,5,6/2,4,5,6/6/1,5,6,7 – Cost $48.00
Race 3 -Female
6 – Vitaemi – She finished 3rd vs tougher in her last race, she has the highest last race speed rating, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
5 – Leviosa – She finished in the money in three out of the last four starts, winning two of the starts, drops in class today and she has a high % winning trainer.
4 – Forest Maiden – She finished 3rd vs tougher in her last race, drops in class today and she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Longshot:
2 – Matty Bo – She likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 50% of the races, winning 36% of the races, the distance will not be a problem finishing in the money in 50% of the races, winning 25% of the races.
Alternate:
1 – Erin’s Enthusiasm
3 – Gia’s Fuego
Bet: $10.00 Win # 6
Race 4-Female
6 – Emirates Affair – She ran 2nd vs tougher in her last race, drops in class today and she has a high % winning trainer.
2 – Ambitiously Placed – She has won two races in a row and is now going for a hat trick and she switches to a high % winning trainer.
4 – Black Ice – She ran 2nd in her last race and has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Flashndynamite – She ran 2nd in her last race and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
5 – Our Uptown Girl
$.50 Pick 4: 2,6/1,3,5,6,7/6,7/1,2,3,5,7– Cost $50.00
Bet: $10.00 Win # 6
Race 5
5 – Level Up – He likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 67% of the races, winning 33% of the races, the distance will not be a problem finishing in the money in 66% of the races, winning 17% of the races.
7 – Dance a Dini – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey and can handle the distance.
6 – Marvelousmoondance – He ran 3rd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Book Runner – He switches to a high % winning trainer who wins 27% of the races with horses when he drops them off a claim and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Booster Shot
8 – I’m Not a Baby
Bet: $1.00 Exacta Box: #1,5,6,7
Race 6
7 – Harley’s Charly – He won his last race at PARX Racing, he likes the distance finishing in the money in eight of nine races, winning three starts and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Flat Lucky – He has won two races out of the last three starts, finishing 3rd in his last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 31% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and he has a high % winning jockey.
4 – Six Whips – He ran 2nd in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
9 – Peach Nectar – He drops in class today; he has a high % winning trainer who wins 25% of the races in the 2nd race after claiming a horse and he has and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
8 – He’s Incredible
1 – Shadow Box
$.50 Pick 4: 6,7 /1,2,3,5/1,7,8,10/1,5,10 – Cost $48.00
Bet: $15.00 Win & $25.00 Place: #7 – $6.00 DD: 7/1,2,3,5
Race 7
3 – Chelonian – He ran 2nd vs tougher in his last race at PARX Racing, drops in class today, he switches to a high % winning trainer who wins 60% of the races in the 1st race after claiming a horse and he switches to a has a high % winning jockey.
1 – Wish for Peace – He ran 3rd in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Roadtriptonowhere – He likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 65% of the races, winning 25% of the races, the distance will not be a problem finishing in the money in 71% of the races, winning 19% of the races and he switches to a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
5 -Roan Mountain – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and he has a high % winning jockey.
Race 8-Female
10 – Paula’s Surprise – She won her last race at PENN National; she switches to high % winning jockey Paco Lopez and she has a bullet 4F workout on Sep-13.
1 – Snappy Ride – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, the rail post is winning at a 22% clip and she has a high % winning trainer who wins 18% of the sprint races he has a horse running in.
8 – Shetalkstomuch – She ran 2nd in her last race, she has a high % winning jockey and switches to a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
7 – That’stony’ssister – She won her last race; she has a high % winning jockey and switches to a high % winning trainer who win 27% of the races when taking a horse from a sprint-route-sprint.
Alternate:
6 – Tootaloo Kangaroo
Bet: $1.00 DD: #1,10/1,5
Race 9
1 – Borracho Concho – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, the rail post is winning at a18% clip, he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
5 – Birthday Bond Rob – He drops in class today; he has the highest last race speed rating and he has a high % winning jockey.
10 – Double O Otto – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
8 – Z’s So Good – He drops in class today and he has a high % winning jockey.
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 6th Race – #7 – Harley’s Charly
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 37% w2w – PP: Inside Out
9 – WHY STOP THERE – only semi class dropper – missed by a neck at this level 2 back
7 – FULLY COMMITTED – track drop from Monmouth park and missed by a neck at this level last out
5 – ROLLY – should be forward from the start – cut back from 7f helps
1 – BUBBY PAPERMAKER – gets the rail, 3rd up and packs some late punch – closers factored yesterday
Race 2: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 37% w2w – PP: Inside Out
1 – ROCK ME GENTLY – typical 2nd race improvement is all she needs
2 – BITCOIN BABY – showed speed for the first time last out and just missed – more in 2nd up
3 – BROWNISTHENEWBLACK – best work for the first timers and gets a weight break
5 – IMPERIO AZTECA – only MSW dropper that was decently bet – seems like an aggressive drop for second career start – they want to sell for sure
Race 3: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 37% w2w – PP: Inside Out
6 – VITAEMI – running at the lowest level in the last 10
4 – FOREST MAIDEN – SIM FAV – most LS and should be right off the pace
5 – LEVIOSA – most consistent PARX runner – all or nothing at the distance 21/4-0-0
2 – MATTY BO – lowest level in last 10 with the most back class
Race 4: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 22% w2w – PP: Inside Three Best, 4+ Discount, but 8+ Better than 4-7
2 – AMBITIOUSLY PLACED – winner 2 in a row, upped SP# last 3, better pace early
6 – EMIRATES AFFAIR – 3rd up, substantial drop in class, won the last two with ease when running close – but a cut below – this level
4 – BLACK ICE – 3rd start after a layoff, better ATB, faster fractions
5 – OUR UPTOWN GIRL – bullet work between races – maybe ready to come alive?
Race 5: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed, 40% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair with 4-7 a Little Discounted
3 – BOOSTER SHOT – ran a little faster last out, drops in class, won by 3 the last time he ran here
5 – LEVEL UP – faster early fractions in last – maintenance work for more fitness today
7 – DANCE A DINI – trending in the right direction, has a lot of LS at times, lowest level in last 10
4 – LUCKY LUCKY LUKE – has some late legs, maybe gained some confidence after winning last by more than 8 lengths?
Race 6: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 37% w2w – PP: Inside Out
8 – HE’S INCREDIBLE – any of his races before his last wins, not sure what to make of his last as the first in a new barn after a claim, big drop to lowest level in last 10 – +7 TOTAL PACE
6 – FLAT LUCKY – last race better than it looks, faster fractions, just needs to run two back
4 – SIX WHIPS – getting better – stumbled last out, move to the inside helps
1 – SHADOW BOX – really hard call over the 7 – rail is better and his PARX numbers are better too
Race 7: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed, 40% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair with 4-7 a Little Discounted
2 – ROADTRIPTONOWHERE – top TOTAL PACE +6 – ran faster last out – highly consistent
5 – ROAN MOUNTAIN – one of two mounts for PACO – horse has responded well for him – much better pace in first half
3 – CHELONIAN – won 3 of 6 at PARX and just 3 of 21 elsewhere – cutting back from 1 1/16 Miles could help
7 – THIRSTY PAPPY – Parx 8/4-2-1 – distance 7/3-2-0 and prefer over the PENN shipper
Race 8: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 34% w2w – PP: Inside Out
2 – SUNDRIA – won last out, tends to pair peak numbers, although it might not look like a drop in class – let’s rewind a race OC 25k par Speed # is 89 – this is 86
1 – SNAPPY RIDE – 3rd up and the resume says today will be the best of the 3
4 – THEGODDESSOFSNAKES – should press forward versus these – cut back in distance helps
10 – PAULA’S SURPRISE – the other PACO mount, bullet work between races, but PENN shipper
Race 9: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 37% w2w – PP: Inside Out
5 – BIRTHDAY BOND ROB – drops in class with TLRSP# +6 and has a maintenance work
1 – BORRACHO CONCHO – history says 2nd up should be as good as last with a chance to be a lot better
3 – MILAGROSO – top TOTAL PACE +6 – most LS and sits 3rd or 4th early – chance to run by late
8 – Z’S SO GOOD – will be out front with the 1 and has hit par for this level
