PARX Racing Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free PARX Racing Racing Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
PARX Racing – 9-30-2024
Race 1
11 – Scamp Walker – He won his last race at PARX Racing and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Awesome for Sure – He has won two races in a row and is now going for a hat trick and he has the highest last race speed rating.
1 – Chasing Stardom – He drops in class today; the rail post is winning at a 22% clip and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Fenwick Jack – He finished 3rd vs similar in last race at PARX Racing and he has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
9 – Financial Strength
8 – Code Enforcer
Race 2 -Female
4 – Incan Moon Goddess – She ran 2nd vs similar in her only start as the favorite but has a trainer who wins 24% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again, she has the highest last race speed rating and Lasix is added.
3 – Bahamian Baby – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race.
5 – Stay Opportunistic – She finished 3rd vs tougher in her last race at PARX Racing, her early speed running style helps chances so the shorter distance can help.
Longshot:
10 – Dixie Music – She ran 3rd vs tougher in her last race and she has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
8 – Norho’s Gamble
$.50 Pick 4: 3,4,5,10/1,3,5,6/1,3/3,5,11 – Cost $48.00
Race 3-Female
6 – Shudabeenacowgirl – She ran 2nd vs similar in last her race, she has the highest last race speed rating and has high % winning jockey Paco Lopez.
3 – Ode to Edie – She won her debut race at PARX Racing; in her second race she extended out and finished poorly and now returns to 6-furlongs which may just be the ticket to winning.
1 – Pesadilla Chanel – She was beaten only 1-3/4 lengths vs similar (on Turf) in her last start, the rail post is winning at a18% clip, she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
5 – Chit Chat Chub – She won her last race at PARX Racing and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
7 – Namora
2 – Fireball Express
Race 4-Female
3 – Heart Light – She has finished in the money in her last seven starts, winning three of the races and she has a high % winning jockey.
1 – Lean On E – She ran 2nd vs similar in last her race, only missing the win by a neck, the rail post is winning at a 18% clip and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Popthechampagne Ro – She has won two races out of the last three starts and the distance will not be a problem.
Longshot:
7 – Peacelovenkarma – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
2 – Captivating Cara
4 – Hightime Valentine
Bet: $10.00 Win & $20.00 Place: #3 – $5.00 DD:3/3,5,10,11
$.50 Pick 4: #1,3/3,5,10,11 /1,2,3,8/1,6,7 – Cost $48.00
Race 5
3 – Lemon Creek Louie – He has the highest last race speed rating, switches to high % winning jockey Paco Lopez, he has high % winning trainer who wins 28% of the races in the 2nd start with this trainer and he has a 3F workout on Sep-24.
5 – Notable Bob – He drops in class today and switches to a high % winning trainer who wins 27% of the races when taking a horse down 2+ classes.
11 – Olliemeister – He drops in class today; his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
10 – Jova – He switches to a high % winning trainer and has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
8 – Captain Cardo
9 – Predicted
Race 6
2 – Fast Bob – He has finished in the money in his last three starts, finishing 3rd vs tougher in the last race and he has high % winning trainer.
1 – Dalton – He ran 2nd vs tougher in his last race, the rail post is winning at a 18% clip and he has a trainer who wins 28% of the races when taking a horse down 2+ classes.
8 – Lookin’ Super – He has won one race out of two starts at PARX Racing and he has high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
3 – Pylon – He has finished in the money in four of his last five starts, winning one of the races and he has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
5 – Crafty Don
9 – The Bearrish One
$.50 Pick 3: 1,2,3,8/1,6/5,6,7 – Cost $12.00
Race 7-Female
1 – Sansa Ariel – She has finished in the money in eight of her last ten starts, winning one of the races, drops in class today and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
6 – Angelic Storm – She finished 3rd vs similar in her only start, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Cinque Amore – She ran 2nd vs similar in her only start as the favorite but has a trainer who wins 21% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again, and her early speed running style helps her chances.
Longshot:
2 – Road to Dreams – She drops in class today and she may improve while returning to dirt.
$.50 Pick 4: 1,6,7/3,5,6/3,6,7/9,10,11 – Cost $40.50
Race 8
5 – Assembly Point – He likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 50% of the races, winning 17% of the races, the distance will not be a problem finishing in the money in 56% of the races, winning 39% of the races and she has high % winning jockey Paco Lopez.
6 – Bourbon Calling – He drops in class today, he has high % winning trainer who wins 32% of the races in the 2nd race after claiming a horse and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
3 – Mo Rewards – He can improve while returning to dirt and has high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
1 – Brilliant Chase – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
2 – twasthedevilsidea
4 – Yes Sir Colonel
Race 9-Female
7 – Amy Mule – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race and has a high % winning trainer who wins 32% of the races in the 1st race after claiming a horse and has a high % winning jockey.
6 – Miss Cinnamon – She has won races three out of the last five races, has a high % winning trainer and jockey and blinkers are added today.
3 – Gilda’s Girl – She drops in class today and she has high % winning trainer who wins 30% of the races in the 1st start that a horse has with the trainer.
Longshot:
2 – Snow Lake – She has finished in the money in her last five starts, winning the last start.
Alternate:
8 – Summersattheshore
Bet: $15.00 Win: #7 – $1.00 Exacta Box: #2,3,6,7 – $3.00 Exacta: 7/2,5,6
Race 10
9 – Up Against It – He has won four races out of eight starts this year, drops in class today, he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
11 – Kingsville – He drops in class today; his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and he has high % winning trainer.
10 – Chain Reaction – He finished 3rd vs similar in last race at PARX Racing and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
7 – Brindisi – He drops in class today, can improve at the shorter distance and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Star Weaver
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 4th Race – #3 – Heart Light
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 34% w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2+ Inside Out
1 – CHASING STARDOM – good chance to go w2w – should be more fit in 2nd up
11 – SCAMP WALKER – tough outside post after being a little better ATB
4 – AWESOME FOR SURE – probably been facing tougher at mostly NYRA and GP
7 – COMMINGLING – record says 2nd off the sidelines at least as good but more likely better than last
Race 2: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 36% w2w – PP: Inside out with Rail Bonus
4 – INCAN MOON GODDESS – Top TOTAL PACE +5, second race improvement would be more than enough
10 – DIXIE MUSIC – very consistent performer that will try to close
5 – STAY OPPORTUNISTIC – biggest class dropper and should be on the front
3 – BAHAMIAN BABY – track dropper from Monmouth and TB? Chris P angle
Race 3: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 36% w2w – PP: Inside out with Rail Bonus
6 – SHUDABEENACOWGIRL – Paco on a Top TOTAL PACE +12 in 3rd up
1 – PESADILLA CHANEL – probably has the most upside and lightly races
7 – NAMORA – 3rd up and took major leaps forward in the previous pairs of 3rd races
4 – NEIGHBELLINE – biggest class dropper to lowest level of short career
Race 4: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 23% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bonus, 4+ Discount
1 – LEAN ON E – hot rail in 2nd up, just missed in last, but moves up in class
7 – PEACELOVENKARMA – incredible late pace vs these – a good start and the rest are cooked
9 – EXPECT TO BE READY – Q37 and very likely to be the pacesetter – drops, weight break, 2nd up with a maintenance work between, more stamina
3 – HEART LIGHT – ITM 9/10 at PARX – extra distance is helpful today
Race 5: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 23% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bonus, 4+ Discount
1 – BIG BROWN SHOES – strong chance to be pacesetter with Q40
3 – LEMON CREEK LOUIE – Paco on horse with TLRSP# and usually pairs strong runs
11 – OLLIEMEISTER – running at the lowest level of career by far with most back class by far
2 – AHSAD – speed and fade at 1M 70 yards, cutback today helps –
Race 6: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 23% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bonus, 4+ Discount
3 – PYLON – on the lead, Q32 horse – speed and fade in 1st up, drops in class
2 – FAST BOB – top TOTAL PACE +8 – electric LS edge, can’t get caught in traffic with inside post
8 – LOOKIN’ SUPER – maybe the most upside with most back class
1 – DALTON – just missed last out and drops in class
Race 7: 5 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 54% w2w – PP: Outside in but Rail is Better than 2/3
1 – SANSA ARIEL
7 – CINQUE AMORE
6 – ANGELIC STORM
9 – CUP OF LIFE
Race 8: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed, 39% w2w -PP: Mostly Fair, 2/3 Small Bonus, 4-7 Small Penalty
4 – YES SIR COLONEL
5 – ASSEMBLY POINT
1 – BRILLIANT CHASE
6 – BOURBON CALLING
Race 9: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed, 39% w2w -PP: Mostly Fair, 2/3 Small Bonus, 4-7 Small Penalty
7 – AMY MULE
2 – SNOW LAKE
6 – MISS CINNAMON
3 – GILDA’S GIRL
Race 10: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 23% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bonus, 4+ Discount
8 – LORD WINSALOT
13 – FIRST DEPUTY
10 – CHAIN REACTION
7 – BRINDISI
