Parx Full Card Tips, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
$100 Challenge – Suggested Wagers for Parx on a $100 Budget
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Mountaineer Park
Free Parx Picks and Comments
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
4 – Lord Joan – She ran 2nd vs tougher in her last race and she has a trainer who wins 28% of the races with a horse who has been 90+ days away.
1 – Popthechampagne Ro– She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race and has the highest last race speed rating.
6 – Colette’s Spirit – She drops in class today.
Longshot:
2 – Incomparable – She drops in class today, and she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Alternate:
7 – Amalfi Lady
Bet: $1.00 DD: 1,4/2,5,6 – $2.00 WP: #4
Race 2
5 – Modern Midas – He finished 4th in his last race at Saratoga after ducking in at the start, bumped at the 5/8 and checking, switches to a high % winning jockey and drops in class today.
6 – Jewels in the Bay – He won his last race at PARX Racing, switches to high % winning jockey Paco Lopez and has a high % winning trainer.
2 – Financial Strength – He has finished in the money in four out of the last five races, winning one of the starts, has the highest last race speed rating and drops in class today.
Longshot:
4 – Holy City – He finished in his last race as the favorite, but he has a high % winning trainer who wins 30% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and switches to a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
7 – Rex Kwon Do
Bet: $.50 Pick 4 -2nd race #2,4,5,6 – 3rd race #4,7 – 4th race #2,6,9 – 5th race #5,6,13
Race 3
4 – Steerage – He drops in class today and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Capt Complicated – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 17% of the starts when shipping a horse in to run.
2 – Uptown Shoes – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Obscured by Clouds – He drops in class today, can improve while returning to dirt and switches to a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
1 – Bubby Papermaker
5 – The Grayt Pumpkin
Bet: $2.00 WP: #4
Race 4
2 – Paradigm Shift – He won his last race at PARX Racing, receiving the highest last race speed rating (tie) and has a high % winning trainer.
9 – Bay and Gold – He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, he has a high % winning jockey who in the last 14 days has this record (8 2-2-1).
6 – All Hail Mo – He has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Be Water – He finished 3rd vs similar in last race, has a trainer who wins 20% of the claiming races he has an entry in and should improve at the shorter distance.
Alternate:
4 – Riverview
Bet: – $.50 Pick 4 – 4th race #2,6,9 – 5th race #5,6,13 – 6th race #4,8 – 7th #1 – $2.00 WP: #2
Race 5
13 – City Rage– He ran 2nd vs tougher (on Dirt) in last race, drops in class and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Tiz a Prince – He was claimed in his last race by a trainer who wins 20% of the races in the 1st after claiming a horse and has the highest last race speed rating (tie).
6 – Mt Suribachi – He drops in class today, has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (8 2-2-1).
Longshot:
10 – Mr. Einstein – He finished 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer who wins 17% of the of the route races he runs a horse in.
Bet: $2.00 WP: #13
Race 6
8 – Relishment – He finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race and he has a high % winning jockey.
4 – Plamen – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and he has a high % winning jockey.
5 – Causalistic – He came wide into the stretch in his last race and finished 4th; he has a high % winning jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (11 3-3-3) and blinkers added today.
Longshot:
2 – Henrythethird – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 28% of the races in the 2nd race after claiming a horse and can improve while returning to a route.
Bet: $2.00 WP: #8
Race 7
1 – Nuedorf – He only needs to repeat his last race win, his career first start, switches to high % winning jockey Paco Lopez and has the highest last race speed rating.
3 – Wontcatchhimtoday – He is a first-time starter whose Dam has 3 winners from 4 starters, breeding suits today’s sprint distance and he has a high % winning trainer who wins 25% of the races in a horse’s debut maiden claiming race.
7 – Bali Amour – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
2 – I Am Dada Moon – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 17% of the races when taking a horse Up one class.
Alternate:
8 – Pallino
Bet: $.50 Pick 4 – 7th #1- 8th race # 3 – 9th race # 2 – 10th # 1,2,3,4,6,7,8,9,10,11-$10.00 Win #1-$1.00 DD: 1,2,3,7
Race 8
3 – Veeson – He won his last race at PARX Racing after being off for seven months, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and has the highest last race speed rating.
4 – Mask Patrol – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race as the favorite, but he has a high % winning trainer who wins 31% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and has a high % jockey.
8 – Rush Center – He has finished in the money in four out of the last five races, winning two of the starts, switches to a high % winning jockey and has a high % winning trainer who wins 22% of the races when taking a horse from a route race to a sprint.
Longshot:
7 – Ninja Prize – He switches to a high % winning jockey, can improve while returning to dirt and he has a trainer who wins 22% of the races when taking a horse from the turf to the dirt.
Alternate:
6 – Blue Royal
2 – Battuta d’Oro
Bet: $2.00 WP: #3
Race 9
2 – Distorted View – She has won two out of her last four races and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
10 – Peyton Elizabeth – She has won two out of her last three races, she switches to a high % winning jockey, and she has a high % winning trainer.
9 – In My Opinion – Her jockey in the last 7 days has this record (9 3-0-0).
Longshot:
7 – Knickersinatwist – She has finished in the money in her last eight starts, finishing 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in her last race.
Bet: $2.00 WP: #2
Race 10
11 – B B Bad – He has been knocking at the door finishing in the money in four of his last five races, finishing 3rd vs similar in his last race and he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
9 – Defend – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race as the favorite, but he has a high % winning trainer who wins 29% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and has a high % winning jockey.
2 – Charlie Five O – He switches to a high % winning jockey and has a good 4F workout on Sep-08.
Longshot:
3 – Starlite Walker – He comes in from Monmouth Park after winning his last race and received the highest last race speed rating to try PARX Racing for the first time.
Alternate:
1 – Thiscatcanjump`
Bet: $2.00 WP: #11
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 36% w2w – PP: Fair 1-7, 8+ Bonus
1 – POPTHECHAMPAGNE RO – TLRSP# with +8 Total Pace Edge
4 – LORD JOAN – drops off the claim. Off since Feb, nice work on Aug 10th, maintenance works since – 1st up record is question
7 – AMALFI LADY – likely pacesetter with 2nd best c-Zone, pair of 2ns ups, major moves up an down once
6 – COLETTE’S SPIRIT – most late pace in the field – weight break could help get off to a faster start
Suggested Wager: $1 Double: 1/2,4,5,6
Race 2: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 31% w2w – PP: Strong Inside Out Bias
6 – JEWELS IN THE BAY – Paco rides coming off the MCL win – tie Top Total Pace
2 – FINANCIAL STRENGTH – TLRSP#, track dropper, class dropper, 3rd up, best in of the 3 in the only other 3 race cyle
5 – MODERN MIDAS – track dropper from NYRA – class dropper, last race better fractions early
4 – HOLY CITY – another track dropper, 1st off the claim for tr Michael Pino – 24% angle
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 4: 2,4,5,6/5/2,5,6,9/6,13
Race 3: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 29% w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2/3 Small Bonus, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Fair
5 – THE GRAYT PUMPKIN – TLRSP# by a lot in last two, 4 SP# increases
4 – STEERAGE – pacesetter with strong C-Zone, biggest class dropper,
7 – CAPT COMPLICATED – showed more late interest in his last, Z Pattern
2 – UPTOWN SHOES – maybe improves in 2nd up
Suggested Wager: $1 Exacta Key Box: 5/2,4,7
Race 4: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 36% w2w – PP: Fair 1-7, 8+ Bonus
9 – BAY AND GOLD – been regressing, Z pattern in last, maybe going from a route to a sprint
2 – PARADIGM SHIFT – tie TLRSP in MCL win, w2w better ATB and gets a weight break today
5 – BE WATER – plenty of EP, ran similar fractions at 6 1/2f v 6f, Parx 7/1-3-1, but distance 5/0-1-0
6 – ALL HAIL MO – tie TLRSP#, been off since June, drops in class, Distance 4/1-1-1
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 2,5,9/2,9/2,4,5,6,9
Race 5: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – OFF
13 – CITY RAGE –tie TLRSP#, dropping in class, Ness Silvera – better in 2nd half last out, but first on a wet track
6 – MT SURIBACHI – tie TLRPS#, drops in class, OK off track record
5 – TIZ A PRINCE – tie TLRSP# consistent performer – lone off track run didn’t go well
1 – SOVEREIGN CHANGE – tough call over the 2, but the 2 sucked in lone muddy run, this one 2/0-1-1, better numbers overall
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 5,6,13/6,13/1,2,5,6,13
Race 6: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed – 31% w2w – PP: 1-7 Fair, 8+ Small Discount
8 – RELISHMENT – been off since mid July, only one published work, tr Michael Pino 20% off long breaks
4 – PLAMEN – better ATB in last, off track 5/0-2-2
5 – CAUSALISTIC – last race a little better than it looks, ran about a second faster in last, ITM 3/3 on wet
1 – MARCO ISLAND – TLRSP# and potentially better in 2nd up – a little faster fractions early in last
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 4,5,8/4,8/1,2,4,5,8
Race 7: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 36% w2w – PP: Fair 1-7, 8+ Bonus
1 – NUEDORF – won debut with TLRSP#, got DQd, Pacp pops on today
9 – AMORE D’ORO – last work was the best of the 1st timers
3 – WONTCATCHHIMTODAY – has the 2nd best work for 1st timers
8 – PALLINO – Pure MSW dropper
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 4: 1,3,8,9/3,4,8/2,10/3,6,9,11
Race 8: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 31% w2w – PP: Strong Inside Out Bias
8 – RUSH CENTER – upped his output in both round twos off the bench, Paco here and lone with came with Paco – sizeable drop
3 – VEESON – TLRSP# and improved a lot in only second start after a layoff
4 – MASK PATROL – better EP#s in last, Parx 3/1-2-0 could have all 3 with a little luck
5 – BUMP N RUN – big drop in class, on the upswing on last two, back class is there
Race 9: 7 ½ Furlongs Turf – OFF – 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 36% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, Inside Out Bias
10 – PEYTON ELIZABETH – Ness in route to sprint, won last time with this horse, 2nd up should be as good but most likely better than last
2 – DISTORTED VIEW – won last with better EP#s last out, but slower times
7 – KNICKERSINATWIST – could be lone E, drops from a 50K NGSTK, not a Penn transfer fan
5 – FOXY JUNIOR – another Penn Invader with decent speed number consistency
Suggested Wager: $1 Double: 10/3,6,9,11
Race 10: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 29% w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2/3 Small Bonus, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Fair
3 – STARLITE WALKER – track dropper, TLRSP#, 3SP# increases, Big overlay with top Total Pace
9 – DEFEND – Ness/Silvera, better ATB in last, could pop or drop in 2nd up – likely pace setter
6 – PARDSY – down in class, been off since Jan, just missed last time with similar time in the barn, best race on a wet track, weight break
11 – B B BAD – been off since May, improving works getting prepped for return
