Parx Full Card Tips, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
$100 Challenge – Suggested Wagers for Parx on a $100 Budget
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Free Parx Picks and Comments
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
4 – Curteis – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race at Delaware Park and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
3 – Chip’s Friend – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race at PARX Racing and has a high % winning trainer.
6 – Florianopolis – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer who wins 19% of the maiden claiming race he has a horse competing in.
Longshot:
7 – Sette Stelle – He has finished in the money in four out of the last five races, and has a trainer who wins 20% of the maiden-claiming race he has a horse competing in.
Alternate:
8 – Shea D Capture
2 – Principe
Bet: $1.00 DD: 3,4/1,2,3,6 – $2.00 WP: #4
Race 2
6 – Emirates Affair – She finished 3rd in her last race, has the highest last race speed rating, has an early speed running style so should improve at the shorter distance.
2 – Marion Grace – She won two races out of the last four starts at PARX Racing, finishing 6th in her last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 33% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again.
3 – Systemic Risk – She likes finishing 2nd and switches to a high % winning jockey to try and win one.
Longshot:
1 – Et’s Moon Maiden – She drops in class today and switches to a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
5 – Collin’s Grey Lady
7 – Jezebel Jade
Bet: $.50 Pick 4 -2nd race #1,2,3,6 – 3rd race #3,4 – 4th race #3 – 5th race #2,3,4,8
Race 3
3 – Miss Chamita – She won three races in a row at PARX Racing, took a trip to Delaware Park finishing 4th and now returns to PARX Racing and has a high % winning trainer.
4 – Peyton’s College – She finished 2nd in her last race and received the highest last race speed rating (tie).
5 – Classy Miss – She likes PARX Racing finishing in the money in 60% of the starts, winning 27% of the races and the distance will not be a problem as she has finished in the money in 50% of the starts, winning 13% of the races.
Longshot:
6 – Speightster’s Gold – She finished 3rd in her last race and has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
1 – Thegoddessofsnakes
2 – Gingers Wish
Bet: $2.00 WP: #3
Race 4
3 – Trepat – He has won two out of his last three races and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Haney Boys – He ran 2nd in his last race and has an early speed running style which helps chances.
8 – J Wass – He finished 3rd in his last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 31% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again.
Longshot:
4 – Our Mark Steven – He was claimed by a trainer who wins 17% of the races in the 1st after race after claiming a horse and he has a good 4F workout on Sep-09.
Alternate:
7 – Vero Sun
Bet: – $.50 Pick 4 – 4th race #2,3,8 – 5th race #2,3,4,8 – 6th race #1,4,7 – 7th #1 – $2.00 WP: #3
Race 5
3 – Social Lady – She ran 2nd vs similar (on Dirt) in her last race, switches to a high % winning trainer who wins 33% of the races in the 1st race after claiming a horse, has a trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (10 3-5-2) and a good 4F workout on Sep-11.
2 – So Fully Sue – She finished 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in her last race and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
8 – A Case of You – She drops in class today and she has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
4 – Blueberry Pie – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race.
Bet: $2.00 WP: #3
Race 6
7 – Harley’s Charly – He won his last race at PARX Racing and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
4 – W. P. Cadet – He won two races in a row and is now going for a hat trip and was claimed by a trainer who wins 33% of the races in the first race after claiming a horse.
1 – Minxzhippsdontleye – I am not sure what happened in the last race as he finished in 7th place but won the race before so I will ignore the last race and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
8 – Mizzen Man – He ran 2nd in his last race and earned the highest last race speed rating.
Alternate:
6 – Cupid’s Dart
2 – On Our Way Boyz
Bet: $2.00 WP: #7
Race 7
1 – Baafeed – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, has high % winning jockey Paco Lopez and has high % winning trainer Scott Lake.
3 – Geebert – He likes PARX Racing winning 28% of his starts and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Rob the Rich – He has finished in the money in eight out of his last starts ten starts, winning two races and running 2nd vs similar in his last race, and he has the highest last race speed rating.
Longshot:
7 – Easy Day – He has finished in the money in nine out of fifteen starts at PARX Racing, winning six races, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
Alternate:
6 – Real Talk – He drops in class today, and he switches to a high % winning jockey, should improve while returning to the dirt and he has a good 4F workout on Sep-08.
4 – Happy Farm
Bet: $.50 Pick 4 – 7th #1,3- 8th race # 1,6 – 9th race # 1,6 – 10th # 3,6,7,8 – $2.00 Win: #1-$2.00 DD: 1/6
Race 8
6 – Made Birdie – She won her last race at Monmouth Park by closing at 5-furlongs so stretching out to 6-furlongs should just be just the ticket she needs, and she just keeps improving in each race.
1 – Dewey Doit – She won her last race at PARX Racing; she has a high % winning trainer, and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
5 – Bailintin – She won her debut race at Delaware Park, has a high % winning trainer, and earned the highest last race speed rating (tie).
Longshot:
2 – Kiss for Luck – I am going to ignore the last race as she had lots of trouble, dropped in class today and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
3 – First Joke
Bet: –$ 10.00 Win #6
Race 9
1 – Getaway Palace – She has won two out of her last three races, drops in class today and has a high % winning trainer.
6 – Pageant Princess – She has finished in the money in four out of six starts and has a high % winning trainer.
4 – Touring Maryanne – She Ran 2nd vs similar (on Dirt) in her last race and she has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
2 – Moonboots – She switches to a high % winning jockey and has a bullet 4f workout on Aug 9th.
Bet: $2.00 WP: #1
Race 10
6 – He Hate Me – He finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
8 – Osprey – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – He’s Incredible – He has won 40% of his starts at PARX Racing and has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Crypt – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 19% of the claiming races he has an entry in.
Alternate:
1 – Small Reason
9 – Hide the Ransom
Bet: $2.00 WP: #6
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Tactical Speed – 29% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bonus, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Big Bonus
4 – CURTEIS – Top Total Pace, Sim Fav – first try at Parx – most back class
6 – FLORIANOPOLIS – better ATB in 1st up, resume says he’ll be better in round two off the bench
3 – CHIP’S FRIEND – chance to rebound in third after a layoff, chance to be pace setter, same early fractions a 1m70y as 6f
2 – PRINCIPE – TLRSP# +2, last race was better than in looks with faster fractions – weight break
Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Trifecta: 4,6/3,4,6/2,3,4,6,7
Race 2: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 36% w2w – PP: Fair 1-7, 8+ Bonus
2 – MARION GRACE – early speed with big mid moves – maybe a small drop in class, cut back to 6f helps 5/1-2-1
7 – JEZEBEL JADE – cut back from 6 ½f could help here, bullet work between races – Parx 12/3-3-1
3 – SYSTEMIC RISK – very consistent performer – held speed longer last out – chance to be pacesetter
6 – EMIRATES AFFAIR – TLRSP# – just needs to run back a race or two
Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Pick 4: 2,7/1,3,4/3,4/2,3
Race 3: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed – 31% w2w – PP: 1-7 Fair, 8+ Small Discount
3 – MISS CHAMITA – Parx 5/3-1-0, 2nd off the claim for tr Michael Pino – weight break
4 – PEYTON’S COLLEGE – tie TLRSP# – Parx 11/4-3-0, Distance 2/0-1-1
1 – THEGODDESSOFSNAKES – likely pacesetter with tie strongest C-Zone
5 – CLASSY MISS – consistent performer with enough back class to win
Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,3,4/3,4/1,3,4,5,6
Race 4: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 29% w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2/3 Small Bonus, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Fair
3 – TREPAT – speed of the speed, top Total Pace +12 – TLRSP# +3 – could improve a lot in 2nd Up
4 – OUR MARK STEVEN – by far his best work on Aug 12th – drops in class – SCRATCHED
8 – J WASS – proper distance 5/1-1-2 – strong C-Zone
2 – HANEY BOYS – run OK off the bench, will go fast early
Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Pick 4: 3/2,3/1,4,5,7/1,5,7
Race 5: 1 Mile Turf OFF – 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 36% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, Inside Out Bias
3 – SOCIAL LADY – TLRSP# of horses left +6 – mixed bag off the bench, improving works getting ready for first race since July 6
2 – SO FULLY SUE – could be better in 2nd up, Z pattern – pace setter? Only 2 dirt races 2/1-0-1
8 – A CASE OF YOU – down in class, faster fractions and pace #s through the first ½ mile
4 – BLUEBERRY PIE – best race came close to the pace, should be in the mix right away
Race 6: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 29% w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2/3 Small Bonus, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Fair
7 – HARLEY’S CHARLY – left arrow horse – 3rd up, usually the best of the 3, likes the comment surged in last
4 – W. P. CADET – lone PC horse, winner two in a row, including his last and first at Parx by 4
5 – AZTEC LEGEND – track dropper – weight break, and strong chance to be on the lead
1 – MINXZHIPPSDONTLEYE – drops in class after a terrible race, two maintenance works between – loves an off track 6/3-1-1
Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Trifecta: 4,5,7/4,7/1,4,5,6,7
Race 7: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 36% w2w – PP: Fair 1-7, 8+ Bonus
5 – ROB THE RICH – top Total Pace +5, TLRSP +4, better in 2nd up – only mount for Kendrick
7 – EASY DAY – 3rd up, only horse in the field to own a triple-digit speed figure in last 10 starts
1 – BAAFEED – never OTM in four mounts with Paco, a touch better in 2nd half of last outing – Lone PC
3 – GEEBERT – big time closer, probably too far back to catch the winner, but could chance to hit the board
Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Pick 4: 5,7/1,2,3,5/1,6,11/1,6,7
Race 8: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 36% w2w – PP: Fair 1-7, 8+ Bonus
3 – FIRST JOKE – drops from a 106K NGSTK turf race at Monmouth – run back to debut is easy win
1 – DEWEY DOIT – could be pacesetter – Tie TLRSP +5 for both
5 – BAILINTIN – the other to tie TLRSP# and ships in from Delaware with a maintenance work between
2 – KISS FOR LUCK – won her debut at Parx and then tried a G3 at Toga, and 204K NGSTK at Monmouth
Race 9: 7 ½ Furlongs Turf OFF – 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 36% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, Inside Out Bias
1 – GETAWAY PALACE – down in class from 100K NGSTK – considerably better ATB
11 – COACH HAS SIX ACES – all or nothing horse 11/4-0-0 – winner last two, Paco on both and his only 2
6 – PAGEANT PRINCESS – 3rd up, best in the cycle in two other round 3s – tr Kathleen Demasi 24% v 21%
4 – TOURING MARYANNE – 2/1-1-0 on an off track – not a fan of Penn shippers, but has shown some Parx class
Race 10: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 36% w2w – PP: Fair 1-7, 8+ Bonus
7 – HE’S INCREDIBLE – better ATB last out with major mid race pop – lowest level in last 10
6 – HE HATE ME – consistent performer, down multiple classes, 33% for Ness vs 25% overall
1 – SMALL REASON – track dropper, class dropper, Kent Sweezey only ran one other at Parx W – 2nd off the claim – 23% vs 14% overall
8 – OSPREY – top Total Pace, TLRSP# – spotty 1st up and only one work since last run on July 7
