Can We Beat the Favorites?

We’re back at Parx Racing with nine races, and after a Monday dominated by short-priced horses, today’s mission is pretty straightforward:

Can we find some value — or are we staring at another chalk-filled afternoon?

Favorites win races, and there’s no reason to force a longshot simply because we want a bigger price. But when the public pounds a horse below what the numbers suggest it should be, that can create opportunity somewhere else.

Rich and Terry will put the Smart Sheets to work comparing SIM Odds to the Morning Line, along with SIM Speed, pace, C-Zone, % Chance to Lead and race shape to identify potential overlays and favorites that might be worth challenging.

If the chalk looks legitimate, we’ll look for ways to build value around it with exactas and multi-race wagers. If we find a favorite that looks vulnerable, that’s where things can get interesting.

Download Today’s Smart Sheet: https://horseracingtoday.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/11/PRX_20261110_1a2569_HRT.pdf

Smart Sheets Explanations: https://horseracingtoday.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/HRTSmartSheetsExplanations.pdf

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Race 1 – Female

5 ½ Furlongs – Rail Bonus, 2-7 Discount, 8+ Fair

Terry’s Picks

2 – Disco Hopp: Finished 3rd in last race; Early speed running style helps chances so the shorter distance can help.

3 – Sushi: Won last race at PARX Racing; Highest last race speed rating.

1 – Crimson Red: Finished in the money in 2 out of the last 3 races, winning 1; Has a high winning trainer and jockey.

Longshot:

4 – No Denying: Trainer wins 40% when drops off claim; High% winning jockey.

Alternates:

5 – Mona L

7 – No Mo Muffins

Terry’s Suggested Wager

$.50 Pick 4: 1,2,3,4,5,7/5,7/1,2/1,2,5,6

Cost: $56.00

Rich’s Picks

1 – CRIMSON RED – SIM Speed #+5 and Tip TOTAL PACE +8

5 – MONA L – on the lead – most upside and top C ZONE

4 – NO DENYING – 1 of the 2 biggest class droppers

3 – SUSHI – dominated in 1st at Parx – better in 2nd up?

Rich’s Suggested Wager

$0.50 Pick 4: 1,5/5,7/1/1,2,6

Race 2 – Female

6 ½ Furlongs – Early Speed, Rail Bonus, 2/3 Farish, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Fairish

Terry’s Picks

7 – She’s a Gem: Ran 2nd in last race as the favorite but has a High % winning trainer who wins 39% with beaten favorites; Highest last race speed rating.

5 – Bertie’s Cause: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; strong jockey stats.

1 – Take Time to Dream: Rail post is winning at 19% clip; Can go the distance.

Longshot:

4 – Charm of the Song: Drops in class today; strong jockey stats.

Alternate:

2 – Violets Smile

Terry’s Suggested Wager

$.50 Pick 4: 5,7/1,2/5,6/2,3,5,6,7,9

Cost: $24.00

Rich’s Picks

7 – SHE’S A GEM – TLRSP#+9 and will be on the lead

5 – BERTIE’S CAUSE – on the other end with most LS +9 – SIM FAV

2 – VIOLETS SMILE – YES horse and biggest, only dropper

1 – TAKE TIME TO DREAM – should be part of the early pace too – 3rd up

Rich’s Suggested Wager

$0.50 Pick 4: 5,7/1,3/1,2,6/3,5,6,9

Race 3

1 Mile – Early Speed, Strong Rail, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Almost Fair, 8+ Same as Rail

Terry’s Picks

1 – Mor Cheese Please: Won last race at PARX Racing; Fastest dirt speed among today’s starters; Rail wins at 19%; High-percentage winning trainer.

2 – Glider Infantry: Won last race at PARX Racing; Has a high% winning trainer and jockey.

4 – Quetzal Island: Finished in the money in 58% of the races, and distance will not be a problem as he has finished in the money in 50% of the races.

Longshot:

6 – It’s Authentic: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Can go the distance.

Terry’s Suggested Wager

$10.00 Win: 1

$5.00 Exacta: 1/2

$3.00 Exacta Box: 1,2,4,6

Cost: $56.00

Rich’s Picks

1 – MOR CHEESE PLEASE – TLRSP# +10 – peak number – how much regression?

2 – GLIDER INFANTRY – out front with the top C ZONE

4 – QUETZAL ISLAND – has been consistent – regressed last out

6 – IT’S AUTHENTIC – 4th of 4

Race 4 – Female

1 Mile – Early Speed, Strong Rail, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Almost Fair, 8+ Same as Rail

Terry’s Picks

6 – Got Game: Has won 4 races out of the last 5 starts; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; high-win% trainer and jockey.

5 – Midnight Flight: Likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 73% of the races, winning 27% of the starts and distance will not be a problem as he has finished in the money in 80% of the races, winning 20% of the starts.

2 – Miss Jones: Ran 2nd in last race, winning the previous race; Can go the distance.

Longshot:

1 – Cruise Missile: Won last race at PARX Racing; Rail post is winning at 23% clip; Highest last race speed rating.

Alternates:

4 – Et’s Moon Maiden

3 – J Rivers

Terry’s Suggested Wager

$10.00 Win: 6

$5.00 Exacta: 5/6

$5.00 Exacta Box: 5/6

$3.00 Exacta Box: 1,2,5,6

Cost: $61.00

Rich’s Picks

6 – GOT GAME – Parx 7/5-1-0 – could be better in 2nd up

1 – CRUISE MISSILE – TLRSP# +4 and 2/2 at the distance

2 – MISS JONES – SIM FAV and Top SIM Speed number – tied most upside

3 – J RIVERS – tough call over the 4 – has more upside and EP vs middle back

Race 5

6 Furlongs – Early Speed, Rail Bonus, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Small Discount, 8+ Discount

Terry’s Picks

9 – Rogue Prince: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Early speed running style helps chances so returning to a sprint will help; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

3 – Change Your Boots: Drops in class today; trainer wins 20% when dropping down 2+ classes; Strong jockey stats.

7 – Matzoball Muhammet: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters

Longshot:

6 – My Little Nico G: Switches to a high % winning jockey; Early speed running style helps chances.

Alternates:

5 – World Wide Web

2 – Lil Oviedo Fire

Rich’s Picks

5 – WORLD WIDE WEB – only YES – most upside

9 – ROGUE PRINCE – Maybe -1 – SIM FAV and top Jy/Tr combo

3 – CHANGE YOUR BOOTS – should be forward and sizeable drop

6 – MY LITTLE NICO G – Top TOTAL PACE – first at Parx – should be forward

Race 6 – Female

6 ½ Furlongs – Early Speed, Rail Bonus, 2/3 Farish, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Fairish

Terry’s Picks

4 – Rogue Justice: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Has a high winning trainer.

2 – Mischief Maxey: Likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 71% of the races, winning 14% of the starts and distance will not be a problem as he has finished in the money in 100% of the races.

7 – Buckin’ Right: Ran 3rd in last race as the favorite but has a High % winning trainer who wins 25% with beaten favorites; Has a high winning jockey.

Longshot:

6 – Angel of Hope: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

Alternates:

3 – Sabby Sunset

5 – Answer the Call

Terry’s Suggested Wager

$.50 Pick 4: 2,3,4,6,7/1,2,3,5,7/1,5/1,4

Cost: $50.00

Rich’s Picks

4 – ROGUE JUSTICE – most upside – Top TOTAL PACE

3 – SABBY SUNSET – Snachez and Ness – track dropper – distance 2/0-2-0

1 – SHERUNSTHISTOWN – could be out front – won on the rail w2w – last time Francisco rode

5 – ANSWER THE CALL – track dropper from GP and FLA – better EP/Fractions

Race 7 – Female

6 ½ Furlongs – Early Speed, Rail Bonus, 2/3 Farish, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Fairish

Terry’s Picks

7 – Dewey Doit: Likes PARX Racing and the distance; Has a high winning trainer and jockey.

5 – Mamarsha: Won last race at PARX Racing; Switches to a high %winning trainer.

3 – Mila Rose: Always in the hunt finishing in the money in the last 7 starts, winning 3 races; Strong jockey stats.

Longshot:

2 – Snappy Ride: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Highest speed figure at today’s distance; Strong jockey stats.

Alternates:

1 – Mezcalifornia

4 – Jump a Fox

Rich’s Picks

5 – MAMARSHA – too much ES +5 and TLRSP#+4 – wins on the lead – standout C ZONE

3 – MILA ROSE – super consistent – top TOTAL PACE

7 – DEWEY DOIT – Sanchez / Pino – 3rd up – better middle out in last

1 – MEZCALIFORNIA – strong rail – resume says better in the 3rd up

Rich’s Suggested Wager

$3 Exacta Key Box: 5/1,3,7

Race 8 – Female

7 Furlongs – Early Speed, Inside Out

Terry’s Picks

1 – Lady Annabelle: Winning machine winning the last 7; Has a high winning trainer.

5 – Nature’s Candy: Ran 2nd in last race; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

2 – Mary Q: Won last race at PARX Racing; Has a high winning trainer who wins 22% races when taking a horse from a Sprint-Route-Sprint; Switches to a high % winning jockey.

Longshot:

6 – Presenceisapresent: Finished in the money in 4 races out of 5 career starts, winning 2; Has a high winning trainer and jockey.

Alternate:

4 – Aoife’s Magic

Terry’s Suggested Wager

$20.00 Win: 1

$10.00 Exacta: 1/5

$10.00 Exacta Box: 1,5

$5.00 Exacta: 1/2,5,6

Cost: $65.00

Rich’s Picks

1 – LADY ANNABELLE – Top TOTAL PACE – 7 wins in a row

5 – NATURE’S CANDY – could be better in the 3rd up – SIM FAV – most upside

4 – AOIFE’S MAGIC – been off for a while – ITM 9/11 at Parx – on the pace

6 – PRESENCEISAPRESENT – strongest C ZONE – room to improve in 2nd up

Race 9

6 ½ Furlongs – Early Speed, Rail Bonus, 2/3 Farish, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Fairish

Terry’s Picks

1 – Little Lance: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Rail post is winning at 19% clip; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

4 – Dot’s Dollar: Won last race at PARX Racing; Highest speed figure at today’s distance ñ Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Has a high% winning trainer.

7 – Action Hero: Likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 47% of the races, winning 17% of the starts and distance will not be a problem as he has finished in the money in 42% of the races, winning 17% of the starts.

Longshot:

9 – Lord Winsalot: Performs well at PARX Racing; Switches to a high % winning jockey; Can go the distance.

Alternates:

3 – Fight Fiercely

2 – Omaha Eight

Rich’s Picks

4 – DOT’S DOLLAR – SIM FAV – on the lead – most upside – solid C ZONE

1 – LITTLE LANCE – Top TOTAL PACE – 3 small SP# Increases

7 – ACTION HERO – YES horse – only class dropper

9 – LORD WINSALOT – Top SIM Speed # – consistent

Terry’s Best Bet of the Day

PARX Racing – Race 8 – #1 Lady Annabelle

1 – Lady Annabelle: Winning machine winning the last 7; Has a high winning trainer.

Terry’s Best Bet Wagers

$20.00 Win: 1

$10.00 Exacta: 1/5

$10.00 Exacta Box: 1,5

$5.00 Exacta: 1/2,5,6

Cost: $65.00