22 to 1 Tom’s Paris-Longchamp Tips and Analysis
RACE 1 QATAR PRIX MARCEL BOUSSAC – CRITERIUM DES POULICHES
1 – Zarigana
All I can say is wow, to start. She has two starts, two wins, and jumped up in speed from race one to race two. She was a favorite in both her races. She’s the one to beat. She’s only run on and off, going soft to good to soft going.
2 – Simmering
She chased two top-class 2yo in Fairy Godmother and Lake Victoria at Royal Ascot and the Curragh. In her other three races, she won. Her numbers have also improved with each race; she will need it to get my top choice. She has won on the soft going.
3 – Bedtime Story
She ran awful, like time out, vs. Lake Victoria, running last as the favorite. She won her first four races, including on the soft going. She has one of those races, and she will run better today.
8 – Vertical Blue
RACE 2 QATAR PRIX JEAN-LUC LAGARDERE
10 – Camille Pissarro
He went off the favorite last time and ran a second, missing by a nose in a twenty-horse field at Doncaster. He ran up and down all season, some good races, some forgettable races. He’s one once, a maiden at Navan, and that was on the softer going. He’s run all his other races on good to firm going. Hmmmmm
1 – Houquetot
He ran four times and ran second once on the good going at Deauville. The other races were on the good to soft to the very soft going, and all were winning efforts. I added another furlong today, and that should be helpful.
3 – Field of Gold
In three starts, all at seven furlongs, he has two wins and a third. He had to hold on for the win in the last start. He moved from midpack to the front. He will continue to improve, and adding distance will help—Gosden runner.
5 – Revolutionnaire
RACE 3 PRIX DE L’ABBAYE DE LONGCHAMP LONGINES
9 – Bradsell
Bradsell has been unstoppable this season, winning all three races. His second-to-last run at York in Nunthorpe was exceptional despite having a favorable post position. At the Curragh, he displayed his winning form once again. My only concern is the going. It’s been a while since he ran in turf condition, but he has won on soft going.
2 – Moss Tucker
He has only run average efforts in his last races but won on the heavy going at the Curragh in April. His overall record on soft to heavy going is good. He is a past group one winner, so he can produce a good effort, and I think the odds may be in his favor for a strong run today at big odds.
5 – Kerdos
A winner on the heavy going early in the season but only managed to get fourth or fifth place lately. Is he more a spring and fall horse wanting the softer going? It wouldn’t surprise me if he puts in a strong effort today.
13 – No Half Measures
RACE 4 QATAR ARABIAN WORLD CUP – PASS
RACE 5 QATAR PRIX DE L’ARC DE TRIOMPHE
3 – Fantastic Moon
Is it time again for a German horse to win the Arc again? I think so based on his recent form with the one bad race at this track. Solid effort last time on the good going at this distance. He has won on a soft track and certainly can do it again—there are big odds for the upset today.
13 – Sosie
This 3-year-old is the one to beat. He has a proven record with only six races, including a strong effort over soft going. He has won three group one’s and only lost was in a listed race at Chantilly. This one has power away from the horse in impressive style. He is undefeated at this track.
7 – Bluestocking
She won her last race over the soft going after a very good effort behind City of Troy at the start. She caught Emily Upjohn late at the end. She will need a good trip and be in a position to finish. I would not be surprised if she is the one to spring the upset.
9 – Look De Vega
RACE 6 PRIX DE L’OPERA LONGINES
11 – Content
After a nothing effort at Royal Ascot, she turned the corner and improved with a third, second, and then a win. She has what it takes at this distance to have a good turn of foot and get up in time. She’s not the same horse that ran on the soft going at this track in May. Good effort her, she runs at Del Mar next month.
6 – Almara
Here is the picture of a horse that is always trying and may not win but is getting a piece of the purse money every time. In her last six races, she has a win, third, second, second, second, win. These races have been on the turf, from heavy to good running and the all-weather. I can’t leave her off my ticket based on what she has done.
10 – Fallen Angel
Her last race was a good second at Leopardstown, but she lost to a top horse in Porta Fortuna. After a three-month layoff, her first race of the season was awful, but she bounced back with a win. She needed that test to perform well here, but I need to figure out the going, and soft may not be to her liking.
RACE 7 QATAR PRIX DE LA FORET PRESENTE PAR EDUCATION ABOVE ALL
3 – Tribalist
1 – Poet Master
8 – Beauvatier
5 – King Gold
RACE 8 QATAR GRAND HANDICAP DES FLYERS PRESENTE PAR RMC
13 – Etel Du Ninian
10 – Tudo Bem
17 – Torpen
7 – Rock Bay
RACE 9 QATAR PRIX DE LA PLACE DE L’ETOILE
7- Tallevast
5 – King Trezy
14 – Swift Flight
11 – Fashion Grey
