The Queen Elizabeth II Cup at Keeneland presents one of those races where understanding how the race might unfold could be every bit as important as deciding which horse is best.
On paper, there is plenty of talent. Most of the field has already produced a PAR-level performance, meaning they have demonstrated the ability to run a race good enough to compete at today’s level.
That makes separating the contenders more difficult.
The Smart Sheets Pace Chart, however, gives us somewhere to start.
Can Kensington Lane Control the Race?
#9 KENSINGTON LANE (8-1 ML) stands out as a potential Lone E.
Our Pace Chart identifies the running styles horses have used when producing their winning performances — or best performances in the case of maidens. Kensington Lane is surrounded primarily by horses that prefer to stalk or close.
That could give her an important tactical advantage.
If nobody wants to challenge her early, she could find herself controlling the tempo while conserving enough energy for the stretch.
There’s just one problem.
#2 LUSTER (5/2 ML) might actually be faster.
Luster Could Get First Run
Luster owns a 7-point Early Pace advantage over the field.
As a general Smart Sheets guideline, 5 pace points equals approximately one length, making a seven-point advantage significant.
Our analysis of 1,000 simulated races also gives Luster nearly a 43% chance of leading at the first call.
That sets up one of the biggest questions in the race.
What happens when the horse that prefers the lead meets another horse that may be fast enough to take it away?
If Luster and Kensington Lane establish position without putting too much pressure on each other, the overall race shape could favor the front of the field.
If they decide to fight for the lead, everything changes.
And that’s when the closers become much more interesting.
Faithful Departed Could Be Waiting for a Pace Duel
#4 FAITHFUL DEPARTED (7/2 ML) appears to be the strongest late-running threat.
She owns the top Late Pace score in the field, registering better than 100 and holding an advantage of a little more than half a length over her nearest competitor.
That’s only part of her case.
Faithful Departed also owns a 62.4% C-ZONE.
C-ZONE helps identify the likelihood that today’s projected race position will resemble the positions from which a horse has produced its successful performances.
In other words, it’s not enough for a closer to have a big finish.
The horse has to be close enough to use it.
Faithful Departed’s C-ZONE suggests she has a solid chance of getting the type of setup she needs.
Don’t Overlook Storm’s Wake
One of the more intriguing numbers belongs to #7 STORM’S WAKE (10-1 ML).
She owns the best C-ZONE in the field, with nearly an 8-in-10 chance of finding herself in a position consistent with her better performances.
At 10-1 on the morning line, that’s worth noticing.
She doesn’t necessarily need to be the fastest horse on paper if the race develops in a way that puts her exactly where she wants to be while others are forced outside their preferred trips.
Tam Tam Might Have the Most Options
Then we have #3 TAM TAM (4-1 ML).
Her advantage may be versatility.
Tam Tam has demonstrated that she can win from the front, middle or back of the pack, earning the ANY designation on the Smart Sheets Pace Chart.
That could prove particularly valuable in a race with an uncertain pace scenario.
If Kensington Lane gets loose, Tam Tam can adapt.
If Luster pushes the pace, she can adapt.
And if the two hook up and create an opportunity for horses coming from behind, she has already demonstrated that she can win that way too.
Sometimes the best trip belongs to the horse that doesn’t require one specific trip to win.
PAR+ Points Us Back Toward the Same Horses
Most of this field has already demonstrated the ability to compete at today’s level.
All but #10 DEEPLEARNING (12-1), #11 SOLOIST (20-1) and #6 BRAIDA (8-1) have recent PAR-level performances on their resumes.
Braida deserves slightly different treatment because she makes her U.S. debut after five starts in France.
When evaluating foreign runners, we generally prefer to see a win or strong performance at the Group level as evidence that the horse can handle this caliber of competition. Braida was soundly beaten in her lone Group 3 attempt.
That doesn’t mean she can’t win today.
It means we’re being asked to believe she can make that jump without having seen the evidence yet.
PAR+, which estimates each horse’s chance of producing a PAR-level performance today, brings several familiar names back to the top:
| Horse | PAR+ |
|---|---|
| #9 Kensington Lane | 88% |
| #3 Tam Tam | 61% |
| #2 Luster | 60% |
| #4 Faithful Departed | 50%+ |
When different pieces of the Smart Sheets keep pointing toward the same horses for different reasons, that’s when things become particularly interesting.
What About the 20-1 Longshots?
There are also two horses who could make the exotics considerably more interesting.
#5 TURNER’S CHARM (20-1 ML) and #8 LOOKIN AT DIAMOND (20-1 ML) aren’t the obvious choices.
Both need some things to go their way.
But look at the Smart Sheets Speed Chart and their upside isn’t dramatically different from several of the primary contenders.
Both also possess strong enough C-ZONE numbers to suggest they’re capable of getting into the race.
At 20-1, we’re not asking whether they’re the most likely winners.
We’re asking something different:
Are their chances better than their odds suggest?
That’s a much more interesting question for a horseplayer.
How Might the Queen Elizabeth II Cup Unfold?
The initial race shape appears to favor Luster and Kensington Lane.
Kensington Lane is the natural early-speed horse, while Luster possesses the numbers suggesting she could beat her to the first call.
If they cooperate, one of them could become extremely difficult to catch.
If they don’t?
Faithful Departed, Tam Tam and Storm’s Wake appear to be among the horses best equipped to take advantage.
And if the pace scenario produces something unexpected, Turner’s Charm and Lookin At Diamond offer two 20-1 alternatives with enough underlying positives to deserve another look.
That’s what makes this race interesting.
There isn’t one Smart Sheets number telling us who is going to win.
Instead, we’re given the pieces:
Who gets the lead?
How much energy does it cost to get there?
Who gets the right trip?
Who has enough left when the real running begins?
Put those pieces together, and you can start writing your own ending to the Queen Elizabeth II Cup.
See Today’s Keeneland Smart Sheets FREE
Keeneland is today’s Smart Sheets Freeview, giving you access to the Smart Sheets for the entire card.
See the pace, simulations, C-ZONE, PAR+, speed figures and the other data we’re using to break down today’s races — then decide what you see.
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