By: Rich Bieglmeier
The Jerome Stakes is a historic thoroughbred horse race held annually at Aqueduct Racetrack. Inaugurated in 1866, it is the second-oldest stakes race in the United States, following the Travers Stakes. The race is named after Leonard W. Jerome, the founder of the former Jerome Park Racetrack in the Bronx and grandfather of Winston Churchill (wow).
The Jerome Stakes is open to three-year-old horses and contested over 1-mile on dirt. The race carries a purse of $150,000 and serves as a qualifying event on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, awarding points to the top five finishers (10-5-3-2-1) toward eligibility for the Derby.
Throughout its history, the Jerome Stakes has been won by several notable horses, including:
Aristides: Winner of the inaugural Kentucky Derby in 1875.
Bold Ruler: Victorious in 1957, later sired Secretariat.
Kelso: Five-time Horse of the Year, won in 1960.
Fusaichi Pegasus: Triumphed in 2000 before winning the Kentucky Derby the same year.
So far, none of the eight scheduled to compete in the 2025 running of the Jerome Stakes have a run on their resume measuring up to the PAR SPEED figure for today’s Stakes conditions. ENDURING SPIRIT (PP: 1 ML 30-1) and STUDLYDORIGHT (PP: 7 ML 5/2) have come the closest.
While none have cleared the PAR RACE hurdle, many have the running style that matches the Profile of a Winner for Aqueduct’s one-turn mile. The distance favors horses that sit right off the lead early, move into contention for the lead by the half-mile marker, and sprint on down the stretch into the winners’ circle. Inside draws have a slight edge, but there are no deal makers or breakers based on post positions.
Our analysis suggests ENDURING SPIRIT, MANSETTI (PP: 2 ML 10) and GEORGIA MAGIC (PP: 5 ML 10-1) are likely to come out of the gates hot and could set fast fractions. ICAN (PP: 3 ML 8-1) and CYCLONE STATE (PP: 6 ML 7/2) ran their best races upfront but might not have enough juice to keep up at the jump; although, ICAN is the most likely to catch a pace that mirrors his best performance. STUDLYDORIGHT is another that will probably find today’s pace to be right in his COMFORT ZONE.
With as many as five horses flashing speed at the start, strong late legs could be the ticket to 10 Kentucky Derby points and the 2025 Jerome Stakes Crown. STUDLYDORIGHT (there’s that name again) has shown the most late pace with MCAFEE (PP: 8 ML 2-1) and OMAHA OMAHA (PP: 4 ML 8-1) hot on his heels.
Our TOTAL PACE measuring stick gives STUDLYDORIGHT a 1-length (5 point) edge over the rest of the field. The race for the runner up TOTAL PACE score is tight. Only ENDURING SPIRIT appears to be out of range.
Perhaps STUDLYDORIGHT has a few negatives. He is the only horse in the Jerome that didn’t show improvement in his most recent run and one of two, with ENDURING SPIRIT, that didn’t finish in the first half of their last races. Both crossed the finish line, fourth of six and had in-race excuses.
Guaranteed Tip Sheet believes STUDLYDORIGHT has an excellent chance to rebound in the Jerome as he has a Stakes win at Aqueduct at today’s distance. Last out, he tried two-turns for the first time and faltered, racing wide. He should benefit from returning to a one-turn mile. We see him sitting right behind the early leaders with jockey Xavier Perez putting the three-year-old in position to use his late legs to get up for the win at the wire.
