A decent first day at the Royal Ascot for Tom and Rich. Tom hit a nice longshot and Rich a decent Trifecta. Day two at the Royal Ascot will likely have a few high-priced winners – let’s see if Tom or Rich find more winners in their Ascot tips for Wednesday, June 19th.
Royal Ascot Selections and Analysis – Day 2
22 to 1 Tom’s Royal Ascot Tips
Race 1 – Queen Mary Stakes (Fillies’ Group 2) (Class 1) (2YO only) 5f
4 – Enchanting Empress – Draw 25
Undefeated in three starts, all at five furlongs. She won a listed race last time out by half a length of the soft going. She has been coming from the rear of the field to win. The high draw will help her close fast at the end, and she will have a run at Ascot in May.
13 – Make Haste – Draw 18
She looks good in her only run at Naas, winning by over three lengths. She raced close up, and when asked to go, she had good speed to finish strongly. Time was good; she will make a good account of herself here.
24 – Ultima Grace – Draw 17
An easy winner at Keeneland, going 4.5 furlongs on the dirt. Normally, Wesley Ward takes the blinkers off his 2yo in their second start. Not this time, and I am looking for her to race on the far side on the lead, and the far side is where the race will be won.
23 – Truly Enchanting – Draw 9
She won her only start at Tipperary by three plus lengths. With this draw, positioning is all important, and she came charging at the one-furlong pole to go to win. Another masterful ride by Ryan Moore may get the job do.
Race 2 – Queen’s Vase (Group 2) (Class 1) (3YO only) 1m 6f
1 – Birdman – Draw 7
Undefeated after two races, including a listed race win at Navan at 13 furlongs. He appears to have improved off the first start at Cork, running at 12 furlongs. He seems suited for even longer races, and his closing kick will make him a winner here.
7 – Meydaan – Draw 8
A winner of his last start at Goodwood over the good to firm going in a listed race, he has been consistent in his last two races. He improved by eight lengths when running third a Lingfield, the Derby Trial. The winner ran second in the Epsom Derby, and Illinois ran second, who runs in this race. He’s ran his maiden win on the all-weather and good to firm in his last three races. I think he will continue to improve.
4 – Illinois – Draw 5
Ran second last time out in the Lingfield Derby Trial, beaten by over 4 lengths as the favorite. Off that effort, he has been pointed to this race. He won his first start at the Curragh over the soft going and then shipped to St. Cloud for a close-up third-place finish in group 1. He returned to the races at Leopardstown with a third-place run on the heavy going. He’s favorite again, but I think he’s no better than a third-place horse.
Race 3 – Duke Of Cambridge Stakes (Fillies’ & Mares’ Group 2) (Old Mile) (Class 1) (4YO plus) 1m
6 – Laurel – Draw 1
This will be her first start of the season, and she has won all of the races first up after a layoff. Her last race was in May 2023 in group 1, and not great, running tenth. She won two of her races on the all-weather and one win on the turn on the good to firm going. She only races at 8 furlongs—an interesting jockey choice by the Gosden’s to use Ryan Moore. She will be the favorite but at a reasonable price. The draw is a concern.
2 – Breege – Draw 13
A winner last time out at Epsom by a head at 8.5 furlongs on the good to soft going. She generally runs well in her 13 races but has only won twice. She has finished in the money in every race in her three runs at Ascot. That’s the way I play her.
3 – Doom – Draw 6
She lost by three-quarters of a length at the Curragh on her first season start in group 3. I note this effort because she again ran well. After her maiden win, she ran a fourth and then won in France in listed races last season. She runs on both good to firm and soft going, and this race suits her very well.
Race 4 – Prince Of Wales’s Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (4YO plus) 1m 2f
9 – Blue Rose Cen – Draw 4
Although her first run of the year was not her best, it was a useful run that prepared her for this race. She is a four-time winner of Group 1 races in France, and this distance suits her. It’s been a long while since I’ve gotten a good price on her.
2 – Auguste Rodin – Draw 3
Which horse will show up today? The winner of the Breeder’s Cup or the runner in Dubai? He ran second last time out at the Curragh in a much better effort than at Meydan (it won’t have taken much). He was beaten by three lengths, but today, I will add him to my ticket, he could run last too.
5 – Lord North – Draw 5
At 8 years old, he is the oldest horse in the race, but he still shows that he can run with top company. He’s raced three times this season with an awful run in Meydan and good runs on the all-weather and on the turf at Sandown in a group 2. I would be surprised if he wins, but I still think he’s good enough to run in the money.
Race 5 – Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Str) (Class 2) (3YO plus) 1m
24 – Daysofourlives – Draw 10
His two starts this season at Newmarket were good races, and he placed in both races, and he wasn’t far back. He’s won at Ascot at his distance on the good to firm going. He looks like a winner on form for me.
23 – Metal Merchant – Draw 8
He’s run twice this season, winning, and placing second both at Newbury. He’s a true miler at this level; he just needs the trip to have a chance again.
30 – Eldrickjones – Draw 21
It was an awful race last time on the turf; it didn’t run at all as the joint favorite. Decent runs on the all-weather with a win and not far behind in the other races. They thought a lot about this horse early in his career, running him in group races with some placings. What made the difference in his last eight races was wind surgery. This is the right level at a price.
4 – Holloway Boy – Draw 23
His first two starts have shown improvement. He ran fourth in his first start and third in his next start. Both these races were on the heavy going. The mile is the distance; a better track may make the difference.
Race 6 – Kensington Palace Stakes Fillies’ Handicap (Str) (Class 2) (4YO plus) 1m
6 – Cell Sa Beela – Draw 17
In the group 3 race, she didn’t run at all at the first start. She looks good in the paddock but not on the track and was beaten by thirteen lengths. She finished last year with a win at Ascot in a listed race at seven furlongs. She ran last year at Royal Ascot and finished eleventh after a nine-month layoff. I like her chances with a race this time and will play her to win.
3 – Mammas Girl – Draw 8
Her last five races were in group company, and her best finish was fourth at Newbury. She won her first two races, including a Group 3 race, and then showed little in her next five races, all in group company. I think the class relief and the two races under her belt this season will give better results.
11 – Summer of Love – Draw 10
She’s only raced three times, with two wins at seven furlongs. All of these races were on the all-weather. This is a Godolphin-owned horse trained by Saeed bin Suroor. Moving to the turf, she got the breeding, and the distance would suit her. She could be one of the favorites.
4 – Mystic Pearl – Draw 7
She raced in Meydan early in the year without much success in group 2 races. Her return in April on the all-weather wasn’t much better in a listed race. They dropped her down in her last race at Ascot, and she showed signs of life, running third, losing by a length and a half. This is a good spot for her to move forward.
Race 7- Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed) (Class 1) (2YO only) 5f.
13 – Honorary American – Draw 4
His first start was at Aqueduct at five and a half furlongs on the dirt. He was with the leader until the end and ran third. He’s bred for the turf, but the dirt debut was ok. The blinkers will stay on, and Joel Rosario get into the winner’s enclosure.
3 – Artagnan – Draw 5
The first run was at Ripon, running “green.” He had the lead but gave it up in the final 100 yards, losing by two lengths. It was a learning experience, and the next out win is possible with William Buick to ride.
7 – Celtic Chieftain – Draw 12
First up, winning by a head, making the move forward with two furlongs to go. One of the comments I read said, “Overcame inexperience,” so it was less than the perfect trip. With improvement, he can do well again. The maiden race was Navan was a sixteen horse field.
18 – Rock N Roll Rocket – Draw 19
Appeared not to like the heavy going in his second start and finished way behind. His first start was a winning effort on the good going by a nose at Cork at 16-1. You get a big price today and you will get the going that he appears to prefer.
Rich’s Royal Ascot Ranks
Race 1: Queen Mary Stakes
24 – ULTIMA GRACE – Wesley Ward horse that won with ease at 1/9 in Keeneland Debut
3 – BETTY CLOVER – beat so many in here already – why not again
9 – KASSAYA – kind of hard to look past a $1.27 million horse
17 – MISS RASCAL – won her last, at Ascot, by 3
Race 2: Queen’s Vase Stakes
8 – MINA RASHID – like it when 3yo show lots of improvement compared to 2yo
1 – BIRDMAN – unbeaten in a pair and beat the ML fav
3 – HIGHBURY – came to life in his last, winning by 7 ½ lengths
4 – ILLINOIS – it’s where I live for now – better in 3rd up
Race 3: Duke of Cambridge Stakes
3 – DOOM – close 3rd in G3 last out, getting more distance works for her
6 – LAUREL – the back class is there, more than a year off, rusty or not
5 – JULIA AUGUSTA – bombs away – stumbled, jockey lost whip, still finished a close 4th – resume says better in second up
11 – ROGUE MILLENNIUM – either going to compete for the win or not show up at all
Race 4: Prince of Wales’s Stakes
8 – ZARAKEM – has six wins in 10 races, including last 3 first up efforts like today
1 – ALFLAILA – another that wins off the bench – winner’s enclosure in the last three
10 – INSPIRAL – winner 9/4 collecting $3.66 million – horses that beat him in last didn’t fire on Monday
2 – AUGUSTE RODIN – even money ML favorite – wins or runs stinkers, stinkers too big of a risk to take 1-1 odds
Race 5: Royal Hunt Cup Handicap
6 – BESHTANI – hasn’t run a bad race since his debut – could have won six in a row
23 – METAL MERCHANT – has beaten a lot of horses in here – classic 3rd start after a layoff
24 – DAYSOFOURLIVES – a lot of good race – maybe at his best in the 3rd up
10 – TALIS EVOLVERE – 8 of last 10 races would be competitive in here
Race 6: Kensington Palace Handicap
20 – ELIM – came back to run a decent race in her last – expecting a return to pre layoff form here
8 – TWIRLING – 3rd up – should be right off the pace and close
11 – SUMMER OF LOVE – if she can take her recent AW form from the last two to turf
19 – RAJINDRI – nine high quality races in 10 starts – won only 3rd up effort like today
Race 7: Windsor Castle Stakes
12 – HAWAIIAN – was 7/5 favorite in debut, stumbled and still won
24 – TREASURE ISLE – got it together in his second race winning at 3/5
11 – GABALDON – debuted in a non graded stakes at GP and “shook clear” for the win
22 – SHADOW ARMY – won debut and the horse he beat came back to win the next out – key race?
