Royal Ascot Horse Racing Picks and Commentary
22 to 1 Tom’s Royal Ascot Analysis
RACE 1 – Queen Anne Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Str) (Class 1) (4YO plus) 1m – Breeder’s Cup win and you’re in the race.
8 – Facteur Cheval – Draw 7
He ran once this season in Meydan, on a good track and won, with a battle at the end at 22-1. In the previous season, he placed in all six of his starts in 2023 on all types of going, showing his versatility. He was second to Big Rock on the soft going in his last race last year. He drops back to the straight mile.
11 – Maljoom – Draw 13
One race this season, ran at Ascot in a listed race at the mile over the good going and finished third. He didn’t quicken enough at the end of the race and was a bit all over the track. He ran at Royal Ascot in 2022 and ran a very unlucky fourth to some nice milers at the Royal Ascot meet. He had many breaks in his training and racing career, but with a prep race, he will prove to run in the money.
2 – Big Rock – Draw 3
In his last race, based on past performances, he would be on the lead and control the pace, he didn’t. For his first race of the season, he was asked to go on and didn’t and faded to run sixth. This comes off a brilliant run last October at Ascot, where he blew away the field on British Champions Day at the mile distance. He looked good going into the race last time. As a 3yo, he ran against some of the best in France, including Ace Impact. My question with him is does he really want longer races and the race at the mile was a fluke? This is the second start for the trainer and he switches jockey to Christophe Soumillon.
RACE 2 – Coventry Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (2YO only) 6f
7 – Columnist – Draw 15
Impressive winner at Chester at six plus furlongs on the soft going in a fast time by over four lengths. He should be one of the leaders initially and may have plenty left to win.
2 – Andesite – Draw 19
He won his first start at York at six furlongs on the good going by a head. At times, he ran “green,” but overall, he traveled well. He was also a bit keen in the lead-up to the race. Watch the odds and see how heavily he is backed.
12 – Ingot – Draw 3
A promising effort at Kempton on the all-weather at seven furlongs. He ran second by a little less than a neck. Cutting back in distance and is from a family that wants distance, so the Gosden’s must feel that he will do well at this distance in a big race.
18 – Symbol of Honour – Draw 20
He ran “green” in both his races, with the first start running sixth (of seven) by nine lengths at Newmarket and returned eleven days later to win at Lingfield by over three lengths over a next-time-out winner. That’s a big turnaround, and it went from five to six furlongs, which also helped. Mickael Barzalona has the ride for Charlie Appleby.
RACE 3 – King Charles III Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (3YO plus) 5f
12 – Big Evs – Draw 6
As a 2yo, he ran one bad race against older horses in the Nunthorpe, a race he was supplemented into. He won his first start this season at York in a listed race. Sitting third in the mid-stage of the race, he was asked to go with just over one furlong to go and took control and won. He won the Breeder’s Cup race by half a length. He won at Royal Ascot last season.
He is again entered against older rivals in this race but has a kick to the finish that is really impressive for this five-furlong specialist. The last three-year-old to win this race was Lady Aurelia.
8 – Asfoora – Draw 17
This mare from Australia ran a prep race at Haydock in May. She lost by two-plus lengths, going five furlongs at the joint favorite. She had chances to go on with one furlong but appeared to have needed the race. She’s on my ticket, an eight-time winner at five and five and a half furlongs because this was her goal.
17 – Crimson Advocate – Draw 2
Won at Royal Ascot last season for George Weaver after a winning effort at Gulfstream with a win-your-in race. She ran sixth in the Breeder’s Cup in her next start. Her first start of the season was a winning effort at Gulfstream by one length, and then she was transferred to the Gosden’s with the lead-up to this race. She picks up William Buick, and off the last race with some smart training, she will be ready again.
RACE 4 – St James’s Palace Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (R) (Class 1) (3YO only) 7 furlongs 213 yards (1603m)
8 – Unquestionable – Draw 3
After winning the Breeder’s Cup race, his first start of the season was in the Irish Guineas, and he ran fourth and looked like a horse who needed a race. He lost by six lengths and was basically one pace, but the comment was that he would be closer to form in his next race. I agree, and with this tough field of 3yo, he will sit close to the pace and pounce at the end to win at a price.
3 – Darlinghurst – Draw 4
A winner of four in a row after two starts is not showing much. His last win in a group 3 was a Chantilly; he was eased down at the end. He drops back to this distance and is a winner on both turf and all-weather, from soft to good, with standard mixed in. By the numbers, he keeps getting better and better with each start.
6 – Notable Speech – Draw 5
He was my top choice in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, at 16-1. E won by a length and a half over the next-out winner, Rosallion. Getting that price on a William Buick/Charlie Appleby horse was surprising to say the least. If you look at his past performance, you will see all-weather wins at Kempton against OK Field. He was the favorite in every race and won. The breeding says more distance, but where he is now, he is undefeated in three starts.
RACE 5 – Ascot Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (4YO plus) 2m 4f
11 – Ndaawi – Draw 18
He’s been going over the hurdles lately and has a win and a couple of thirds at the sixteen-furlong distance. Some form, but if you look back at his flat racing career, he was racing against listed and group horses without success. His top-level win on the flat was in an 8.5-furlong race at the class 2 level. The distance and the handicap level are the right places for a win.
3 – My Lyka – Draw 16
A winner of two races on the turf and all-weather at a distance (but not this far), he will have his chances here. He was transferred to the current trainer and had a layoff of over one year, but he returned to the races, finished second in a hurdle race, and lost by a whisker. This race was over 20 furlongs. His flat career includes two wins in France and some good runs from the six starts overall. Ryan Moore has the mount.
10 – Zanndabad – Draw 4
After three races over the hurdles, including a complete mess and two second-place finishes, he returned to the flat at Chester and ran third in a field of sixteen on the good to firm going. He finished best of all in the race, suggesting another run on the flat at a distance would be the next step. He will be one of the favorites off that effort.
18 – Pledgeofalliance – Draw 1
A winner last time at Goodwood in a class 3 race at 16 furlongs with a slow start and moved forward to take the lead at three furlongs and finished strongly. He will be with the leaders in this race and let’s see if more distance is what he wants. He may set the pace in this race.
RACE 6 – Wolferton Stakes (Listed) (Class 1) (4YO plus) 1m 2f
5 – Botanical – Draw 13
A winner of his last two races by three and six lengths, he has strong form coming into this race. In his six-race career, he’s won three times and ran in the money in the other races (two all-weather and one on the turf). He moves up in class. The distance suits him, and now, to get the trip from an outside draw will be the key to victory.
13 – Ouzo – Draw 5
He’s won three in a row. The first win was at Ascot, going 8 furlongs, and then he went to Dubai to win twice at 9 furlongs, and in those two races, he went off at 11-1 and 8-1. In the two races in Dubai, he had to overcome trouble and did not win by wide margins. He moves up in class, but distance should be suitable.
4 – Astro King – Draw 12
After good efforts at Newmarket, he drops from group-level races to run in this listed race. Before those races, he ran in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain with disappointing results. I think he is good enough for a nice in-the-move run against this group, which makes the most sense to me.
RACE 7 – Copper Horse Handicap (Class 2) (4YO plus) 1m 6f
3 – Beamish – Draw 5
After not racing for 13 months, he ran as you would except for the first race, showing pace, on the lead at the beginning, and nothing at the end. He won his first three starts in 2022, then ran in Group 3 races in Ireland and did okay. He was put away, gelded, and changed trainers for his last effort. They will drop him behind the leaders and move forward between the three and two-furlong poles left in the race. Good price.
13 – Lmay – Draw 16
Her first race this season was not good, losing by over sixteen lengths, going 16.5 furlongs at York in a group 3. She was done at the two-furlong marker. She’s only won a maiden race and has flashed moments of ability in better company, with her best finish running third in a Group 2 race. She had 8 months off, and it showed. With the class drop, a good distance for her, she will show up today with a finish in the money.
6 – Naqeeb – Draw 11
Two races this season, both at the group 2 level, ran third in one and dead last in the most recent race, beaten by 52 lengths. Toss the last race and look at some of his other efforts. He wins at the class 2 and 4 levels, and he has some in the money runs, too. The last race was wishfully thought after the third place finishes at 12 furlongs. This is a much better spot for a placing.
There are some reserve horses; one is worth noting if he draws in.
17 – Bague D’Or – Draw 9
He’s a winner in his first start of the season and looks good in that running.
Rich’s Royal Ascot Ranks
Race 1: Queen Anne Stakes
1 – AUDIENCE – looks like a mile or longer is the key
5 – CHARYN – 2nd to top choice in their last – won two of three following some rest
8 – FACTEUR CHEVAL – In the Money 11 of 12 at the distance
7 – DOLAYLI – gave up the lead late in a French GI at 1 1/16 miles – cut back in distance to a mile helps.
Race 2: Coventry Stakes
9 – COWARDOFTHECOUNTY – smoked at The Curragh in debut, horse he beat came back to win
5 – CAMILLE PISSARRO – 4/5 and 3/5 odds in his two races – clearly well thought of
7 – COLUMNIST – debuted in a $38k allowance race and won easily
6 – CATALYSE – made easy work in his debut as the 6/5 favorite – won “going away”
Race 3: King Charles III Stakes
16 – VALIANT FORCE – just missed against the likely favorite in the Breeders Cup – won Norfolk Stakes at Ascot
12 – BIG EVS – likely favorite – hard to argue with 7/5-1-0 record – 2nd by length in debut other was just bad
5 – REGIONAL – led until the last few steps at 6f, dropping back to 5 furlongs helps
8 – ASFOORA – better in 2nd up
Race 4: St James’s Palace Stakes
6 – NOTABLE SPEECH – don’t know how good a horse is until it wins
1 – ALMAQAM – been “impressive” in 2024 and straight smoked the comp in his last, 3rd up
5 – METROPOLITAN – three of his four races would do – including a G1 last out
7 – ROSALLION – never off the board in six races – 3rd up after a G1 win
Race 5: Ascot Handicap
5 – DIVINE COMEDY – always like this comment, eased when winning by 5 ½ lengths – getting more distance today helps
1 – PIED PIPER – will definitely be coming at the end, extra distance today works to his favor – high weight horse
3 – MY LYKA – 6 high quality starts in 7 races
4 – BOHER ROAD – the last two are impressive, just concerned 1st up record is bad – but if he can still has form from the last two – lookout
Race 6: Wolferton Stakes
5 – BOTANICAL – no bad races in 6 -decent run in lone at Ascot – 2nd a few back to a horse I pointed out on Belmont Stakes day – MEASURED TIME
16 – TORITO – going to keep coming at the end – a little more distance might be helpful
9 – ISRAR – has raced well in Group company – distance 4/1-1-2
1 – ANCIENT ROME – by far most accomplished horse as defined by earnings 1.5 million – the rest might not add up to that
Race 7: Copper Horse Handicap
17 – BAGUE D’OR – distance 4/3-1-0 – runs well after some rest like today
1 – ALSAKIB – won at this level the two times he ran
11 – INTINSO – four of the last five races would do
6 – NAQEEB – drops from a pair for G2s – this is absolutely a better fit
