Horse Racing Picks and Analysis
Tough sledding for Tom and Rich in the middle day as bombs galore score. The duo looks to rebound on Foreign Friday.
Royal Ascot Tips
(The Going Report)
Race 1: ALBANY STAKES
Race 2: COMMONWEALTH CUP STAKES
Race 3: DUKE OF EDINBURGH HANDICAP
Race 4: CORONATION STAKES
Race 5: SANDRINGHAM HANDICAP
Race 6: KING EDWARD VII STAKES
Race 7: PALACE OF HOLYROODHOUSE STAKES
Royal Ascot Picks and Comments
22 to 1 Tom’s Tips
Race 1 – 14:30
Albany Stakes
6 – Jabaara – Draw 18
She won only start at Newmarket and had to do much work to get the win.
She appears to be closer, so the strong pace in this race will help her.
Dam side – 8 foals 5 are winners, one 6F winner and the rest are 1 mile or farther.
Sire side – producer of many, many top-class horses
10 – Navassa Island – Draw 3
Ran second in a Group 3 race at Naas for her only start. She did not have clear running and made up a ton of ground, and lost by a neck.
Dam side – 6 foal 4 winners including Lezoo, produces sprinters to 7F.
Sire side – a winner in France and has produced horses up to 1 mile.
18 – Soprano – Draw 16
Winner first out at Newmarket as the favorite, and William Buick kept her to the task for the win. 6F should suit her perfectly.
Dam Side – 1st foal she was unraced, but the family is middle-distance types.
Sire Side – Group 1 winner in sprints in Australia and England.
Race 2 – 15:05
Commonwealth Cup
2 – Little Big Bear – Draw 2
Won last out at 6F in Group 2 at Haydock as big favorite.
Tried and failed badly at 1 mile in the Guineas running last. He’s a sprinter
Champion 2yo last year in Ireland.
The one to beat.
4 – Mischief Magic – Draw 1
Only a little in his return to the races in the first start of the year. At Ascot and lost by 16L. Too bad to believe? I think because he the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile sprint last out on firm group and has won before on good to firm going.
Toss last race, and he will have no excuses today.
11 – Lezoo – Draw 14
Not much in her return to the races last out but this was the Guineas at 1 mile and she appears to be a sprinter so today back to 6F vs males.
Beat Meditate in her last race of 2022 at Newmarket by 3/4L.
If you toss the last race, she’s won 4 6F races and place 2 behind in the other. The winner won the Guineas.
Maybe 8-1 odds…
Race 3 -15:40
Duke of Edinburgh Stakes
5 – Live Your Dream – Draw 18
After being off for a long time (2021), he ran 12F at Haydock in class 2 handicap and ran second at 9-2. He closed well at the winner. Short of conditioning.
He’s run 11 races 4 wins 4 placings.
He wants to distance the question is the going but appears to be back to his old form.
6 – Okita Soushi – Draw 9
He Ran 5th in group 3 at Leopardstown at 14F and lost by 3L.
2 wins at Dundalk on all-weather at a distance of 16F and 10.5F, both times the favorite.
He’s run on the good to firm going 3 times and won 1 and placed in the other.
Distance is fine and Ryan Moore can only help get home.
16 – HMS President – Draw 11
Won last start at Newmarket at 14F on the soft going just by a neck.
Good effort in first start of the season on all-weather at Kempton running 2nd at 11F
His final race of last year was a real stinker.
He’s run 33 times 4 wins 13 placings.
That placing number is why I am placing him to run third.
Race 4 – 16:20
Coronation Stake
3 – Meditate – Draw 4
Good effort at the Curragh at 1 mile with Tahiyra winning.
Tried the mile at Newmarket in the Guineas and never in the race.
She won the Breeder’s Cup race at 1 mile on the firm going at Keeneland, but I am thinking she is not a miler.
She’s 2 for 2 on the firm going and that’s what we are getting today.
4 – Queen For You – Draw 1
Won novice at Ascot in May at 1 mile by 2L.
The last race ran at York running 2nd by a head after a slow start.
Drops in the distance and gets a bend to run around, positioning is important.
Gosden generally knows what he’s doing and is seeing in the morning and the odds reflect that. She has a very good chance here.
7 – Tahiyra – Draw 3
Won last out at the Curragh, beating Meditate at 1 mile as the big favorite.
Won her to start at 7F and again beat Meditate.
Ran second as the favorite in the Guineas.
Her last 3 races were all group 1’s.
She’s the one to beat and my only question will she like the firm going because she has never run a truly firm going yet?
Race 5 -17:00
Sandringham Stakes
24 – Sparks Fly – Draw 10
Won the last 4 in a row at lower levels and on soft or heavy going.
The last two wins, she won 5 1/2L and 6L.
She’s turned tiger since running on the turf because her first 5 races were on the all-weather and her best finish was 3rd.
Does she like to be good to firm going and is the class rise too much?
Will find out and at 25-1 why not give an undefeated horse on the turf a chance?
Laura Pearson rides with a 3lbs allowance.
2 – Jackie Oh – Draw 28
Won her maiden at Naas at 1 mile by 1/2L
Then they got aggressive and ran her in a listed race at Navan at 10F, she did an ok 2nd.
Ran her at the Curragh in the Guineas group 1 and that was too much for her to handle at this point in her racing career and ran 5th.
Drops back to a level I think she will do very well at.
Moore/O’Brien have won a race or two in the past.
26 – Marksman Queen – Draw 23
Only 3 races run and 2 wins 1 second at today’s distance but on the all-weather only.
She’s not winning by big margins (or losing).
Breeding says turf in perfect for her but she may want more distance.
This Gosden trained horse will have her chance to provide again that the 1 mile on the turf is her type of race
Holly Doyle has the ride.
Race 6 -17:35
King Edward VII
2 – Arrest – Draw 1
Look good until the 3F marker in the Epsom Derby and then went backward with nothing left. I was found after the race he had lost a shoe.
Prior to that, he ran good races with 3 wins and 2 placings never out of the money.
Barring anything happening this time, he should have a better result.
With the Frankie factor, the odds will be low.
5 – King of Steel – Draw 6
This lightly raced horse came into the Epsom Derby with 1 maiden win and a dull effort in group 1 at Doncaster in October.
He outran his odds of 66-1 and ran 2nd to Auguste Rodin in the Derby.
Some feat off a layoff but the trainer knew what he had.
In this race, he will have to prove to himself that wasn’t a fluke but you’re not getting 66-1 ever again.
4 – Continuous – Draw 3
Ran a nothing race in the Prix du Jockey last out at Chantilly losing by 15 1/2L Toss it.
In the previous race and first start of the season, he ran a nice 3rd in group 2 at Doncaster. That was on the good to firm going.
He won both his starts as a 2yo including a group 3 at Saint-Cloud.
Moore/O’Brien, with the second string to Augusta Rodin has a good chance here in this small field.
Race 7 – 18:10
Palace of Holyroodhouse Stakes
17 – Thunder Moor – Draw 19
Only a novice winner but he’s been running against better horses in listed and group races. This is a drop-in class, and that’s what he needs.
He has been distanced in all the races following that win.
This will be his first start of the season, and they are using an apprentice jockey Billy Laighnane on board with a 3lbs allowance.
7 – Danger Alert – Draw 5
He won last out at Chester, going 5F and by a head at 12-1.
He did have some issues, and the comment line said he will have to pass the stalls test before he was allowed to run again.
Beaten badly in the race before after winning at Kempton.
It took six starts to break his maiden, but he ran second 4 times. Getting a paycheck at least.
5F seems to be his best so far, with 4 starts, 2 wins, 1 placing.
23 – Remarkable Force – Draw 18
The first start of the season was at Redcar and ran a useful 4th. Well, it could have been better, but it’s a start.
He won his first two starts of his career, and then like many do, they got aggressive, and he ran at Royal Ascot in Group 2 company and did nothing.
Tried listed company with one 3rd at Ayr.
Basically, they were average efforts overall.
This is a better spot for a second start.
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1: ALBANY STAKES
10 – NAVASSA ISLAND – ownership must think they have something as she debuted in a G3 – missed by a neck
9 – MATRIKA – at this point you have to be nuts not to include Ryan Moore
18 – SOPRANO – won debut with ease with a strong race rating
2 – DAWN CHARGER – seemed like horses with Ascot experienced did well on Wednesday – let’s see if it carries over
Race 2: COMMONWEALTH CUP STAKES
5 – NOBLE STYLE – improved in his last and was well bet, going to find his form in the third after a break
1 – LITTLE BIG BEAR – Ryan Moore again, but why put the favorite on top after what we’ve seen the last three days
12 – OCEAN QUEST – hasn’t done anything wrong in any of his five races
8 – SHAQUILLE – won five of six overall and is unbeaten in three at the distance – why is he down here?
Race 3: DUKE OF EDINBURGH HANDICAP
6 – OKITA SOUSHI – did I tell you Ryan Moore is winning everything? Good breeding and a decent run on Ascot
11 – AL NAFIR – four of his six races probably gets this done, other two, not so much – 1st Gelded maybe puts him in the good camp
15 – HAUNTED DREAM – run his best 1st up, like today
9 – NAGANO – complete wildcard – keep an eye on the odds board – back class is there, if the bettors back, probably live and could be top horse in the race
Race 4: CORONATION STAKES
7 – TAHIYRA – only a ½ length from being undefeated in 4
6 – SOUND OF HEAVEN – should be close to the front in a short field – proved she can run a mile and improved plenty in 2nd career start vs debut – another round 2 today
3 – MEDITAE – only one bad race in 9, that was on soft, all the good surface races were 1st or 2nd
Race 5: SANDRINGHAM HANDICAP
2 – JACKIE OH – ok finish, not embarrassed in last vs TAHIYA who is the 3/5 in the CORONATION STAKES
22 – EXIMIOUS – three of her four races were solid, won 2nd career start after solid effort in debut, solid effort in first up, looking for the pattern to repeat
26 – MARKSMAN QUEEN – first three all good on AW, just ¾ lengths from winning all 3, turf breeding is there
29 – the horse’s name is RICH, I’d look dumb as hell if I didn’t take her and she won
Race 6: KING EDWARD VII STAKES
3 – ARTISTIC STAR – maybe was a little hyped in last, comments mentioned sweating, lacked room, going to rebound today
5 – KING OF STEEL – ML favorite but was $66 to 1 in last and the 3 was $22
2 – ARREST – also was amped up in last, was a head away from winning the previous 4
Race 7: PALACE OF HOLYROODHOUSE STAKES
13 – JER BATT – got off to a crappy start in his last, finished 2nd , but usually is on the front
22 – THE BIG BOARD – turf 7/2-3-1, likely improves in 2nd up, likely will be forwardly place
24 – HARRY BROWN – finished 2nd or 3rd in four at the distance and the surface
2 – WALBANK – raced once at Ascot – finished behind the Riddler last year, had he not stumbled, he might have won
