Horse Racing Picks and Analysis
Four days down, one to go. Tom’s back hurts after carrying the team on Friday. Hopefully, Rich can show up on Saturday to help Tom a little bit.
Royal Ascot Tips
Race 1: CHESHAM STAKES
Race 2: JERSEY STAKES
Race 3: QUEEN ELIZABETH II JUBILEE STAKES
Race 4: HARDWICKE STAKES
Race 5: WOKINGHAM HANDICAP
Race 6: GOLDEN GATES HANDICAP
Race 7: QUEEN ALEXANDRA STAKES
Royal Ascot Picks and Comments
22 to 1 Tom’s Tips
Race 1 – 14:30
Chesham Stakes
15 – Nemonte – Draw 2
A winner at the Curragh first out by a neck at 20-1 odds. The horse flew home to get the win.
The 7F should suit her perfectly based on the breeding.
Dam side – first foal and the related runners all have won at distances 1 mile or greater.
Sire side – unbeaten as a 2yo and won the July Cup as a 3yo. A nice sprinter.
11 – Carolina Reaper – Draw 11
She missed the break in her only start and ran 4th at Beverley. The race was a mess for her, but she moved very strongly at the end. To say the least, it was an interesting first start.
Dam side – 6 foals, 3 are winners at 7F or greater.
Sire side – Unbeaten and champion 2yo and won a 3yo too.
3 – Golden Mind – Draw 15
2 starts, and the last one was a winning effort at Leicester. The first start was ok, running 3rd in a field of 5. He went up in distance from 5F to 6F
This race has been the target, so let’s see if he can do it.
Dam side – 2 foals, both winners. He is a half-brother to Perfect Power, who won at Royal Ascot, among other races.
Sire side – Sire was a top-class miler
Race 2 – 15:05
Jersey Stakes
7 – Enfjaar – Draw 9
2 starts, 2 wins, with one at 1 mile and the other at 7F. One on the all-weather, the other turf maiden.
Both races were nice performances.
Interesting placement of the horse in the 7F race because breeding suggests 1 ¼ mile may suit him.
Let’s see if this one will beat the big favorite.
14 – Zoology – Draw 7
He has two wins, both at lower levels and then in popup in group-level races.
In the first group level race the turnaround was too quick after victory as a 2yo, 11 days. Poor effort reflected that poor decision.
First start of the season, on the all-weather he beat the favorite in class 5 races, key race?
Next out in group 3 race over the soft going was an ok 4th but the comment of better ground will suit this horse better, well can get much better than good to firm.
At the price, a big threat here.
10 – Holloway Boy – Draw 2
He is a course and distance winner at 2yo during the Royal Ascot meet and that was the first race of his career.
The first start of the season in the Guineas was a bust.
During his 2yo runs, he was never out of the money but only the one win.
I hope that was a first start and he needed it because his past runs have been good.
Race 3 – 15:40
Diamond Jubilee Stakes
4 – Big Invasion – Draw 7
With 3 races this season, this horse has a win, a second, and forget it race.
Last out, he faced the best US-based turf sprinter Caravel (she beat some of the best from Europe) by 3/4L, and the comment was never on terms.
He won his first start at Gulfstream at 5F by 3/4L
I think 6F suits him and the draw is good now can he get it done?
2 – Artorius – Draw 8
Aussie runner came to Royal Ascot with much hype and ran ok 3rd to Naval Crown at 6F on the good to firm going. He stayed in England and ran 3rd to Highfield Princess in the July Cup. Both ok results.
Returning to Australia, into his 4yo start, he won at Randwick in group 1 at 6.5F and got up in time.
His next start was at Rosehill and a disappointing 4th at 7.5F to one of the top horses in Australia Anamoe, wrong distance?
The favorite here and the target of the trainer/owners.
7 – Emaraaty Ana – Draw 14
One race this season, it sucked 9 of 10 in group 2 at York.
The previous three races were in the money finishes including a surprising second in the Breeder’s Cup Turf Sprint to Caravel.
He was second at Haydock and 3rd at York but group 1 races.
His Royal Ascot run last year was not great, ran toward the front but he was running on the wrong side of the track.
Money run is all I want for his one to get a nice exacta.
Race 4 – 16:20
Hardwicke Stakes
5 – Hukum – Draw 4
Won last out in first start of the season beat the last years Epson Derby winner Desert Crown by 1/2L at 10F in group 3 at Sandown.
The race before, he beat Pyledriver at Epsom in group 1 at 12F.
His race record is 16 starts 10 wins 3 placings and 8 runs at this distance 5 wins 2 placing.
He’s the favorite for a very good reason, this 6yo is good.
8 – Free Wind – Draw 8
First start of the season, she beats Rogue Millennium as the favorite at 10+F. The owners supplemented the horse into the race. The horse she beat just won at Royal Ascot.
He’s won 4 in a row dating back to Aug 2021 at Deauville.
They only run this horse when she right and fit.
4 – Grand Alliance – Draw 2
Won last start at Newbury by 2 1/4L at 12F over a field including Hurricane Lane, Max Vega, Mojo Star & Lone Eagle in the first start of the season at 18-1.
Since his wins in lower class levels, be has been trying to breakthrough with a group win and getting close but not finishing the job as a 3yo.
Now 4yo to win like he did on the first start, watch out.
Longest odds on the board.
Race 5 – 17:00
Wokingham Stakes
5 – Tis Marvellous – Draw 3
The first start of the season was awful. Went off at 66-1 in group 3 at Newmarket 5F and finished last.
He was a bit keen on the race early and had nothing to show.
With that in mind, he is dropping into the class 2 race at Royal Ascot and been racing at the group and listed levels in past 9 races.
The last time he was in a class 2 at Ascot was in 2021, and he won.
I don’t know if the 9yo can get it done from his 7yo form, but I will risk a few bucks on him that he can.
2 – King’s Lynn – Draw 2
Two starts this season with an average run in a listed race at Doncaster and at 2nd place finish at Chester in a class 2 handicap over the soft ground.
He’s raced 7 times at Ascot and has 1 second and 1 third to show for his efforts.
But at the class 2 level, he has 6 starts, 1 win 2 seconds, 2 thirds
With the good to firm going, I give him a good chance for an in-the-money run.
30 – Aramis Grey – Draw 11 (he is listed as a reserve horse, so he may not run)
This horse model of recent consistency with 38 starts, 10 wins 13 seconds and 5 thirds.
He is a better horse on the all-weather than the turf and has never raced at Ascot.
He raced at all levels from class 6 to class 1.
Last out, he ran third in at class 1 race at Haydock, his highest-level race ever.
If he doesn’t make it in, then 21 – Probe – Draw 17 will be my pick.
Race 6 – 17:35
Golden Gates Stakes
12 – Have Secret – Draw 2
The first start of the season was a good 4th at Newbury at 10F vs a couple of horses who ran in the money at Royal Ascot.
He had chances in the race but couldn’t finish, classic needed a race before the best performance.
He only has 2 wins from 8 starts but has won on good and soft going.
Distance isn’t an issue because he won at 10F.
6 – Canute – Draw 6
He’s raced 4 times this season starting in April and won his last race at Navan going 10F with Ryan Moore running for the first time.
To the observer of the race, he had something to spare.
His other races were 2 thirds and 1 fourth but in all of those races.
His last race was his first win.
He has had a lot of races in a short period of time but his best was his last so I think he’s good for another strong finish.
3 – Liberty Lane – Draw 1
He’s raced 3 times with a win at first try at Nottingham at 8.5F on the soft going. Then ran 2nd at Newmarket going 10F to a horse that has won at Royal Ascot this year.
They reached for the stars last out in running at York in a group 2 race and he ran 7th.
Now he will try the handicap level after his better efforts in novice races.
Race 7 – 18:10
Queen Alexandra Stakes
1 – Stratum – Draw 9
His last win was this race last year on the good to firm going. Since then he has raced 5 times with the best finish was 4th.
His first run of the season was at Leopardstown in a group 3 with a jog around the track running 8th of 9.
William Buick has the mount and won on him before.
6 – Goshen – Draw 2
Ran 2nd at Sandown last out in a marathon race group 2 and lost by a neck.
His other two starts this season were a 5th of 5 and 3rd of 3 so the last was the best effort so far.
He’s won on flat and going over hurdles (better at hurdles but also more chances).
He’s never raced this far but why not give a shot off the last effort.
3 – Dawn Rising – Draw 10
He’s had mixed results this season from 3 races. 2 thirds and pulled up in a hurdle race.
His last race was at Leopardstown in a group 3 race at the shortest distance he runs at in a long time of 14F. He ran a good third.
He’s a group 3 winner at Navan over the hurdles.
Distance isn’t the issue and he should be the second choice among the bettors or punters.
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1: CHESHAM STAKES
17 – SNELLEN – a stakes winner in debut and was well bet
15 – NEMONTE – won a handicap in her debut in one of the highest rated races
16 – PEARLS AND RUBIES – Aiden O’Brien and Ryan more – was well bet in debut win – ? is 5 to 7f
13 – LA GUARIDA – improved a lot in her second career start, a similar move forward helps
Race 2: JERSEY STAKES
5 – COVEY – is a neck in his debut from being undefeated in four – 2 for 2 on grass, easily
7 – ENFJAAR – bet down hard in last in big won on AW – but won debut too on grass
12 – STREETS OF GOLD – looks like he may have regained some of the for that had him win his first 5
14 – ZOOLOGY – is the only one to beat COVEY, has two wins, both were first up like today
Race 3: QUEEN ELIZABETH II JUBILEE STAKES
10 – ROHAAN – won two of his last three at Ascot – following the same pattern as last year when he won at Ascot
13 – WELLINGTON – really good horse losing to other good horses in last 5, is the confidence shook?
2 – ARTORIUS – lone trip at Ascot was solid – looks like he regained form
1 – AL SUHAIL – the turf breeding is best in the field and won last two first up races
Race 4: HARDWICKE STAKES
8 – FREE WIND – looks like a two-horse race – this one is yet to run a stinker on turf, just ¾ lengths from winning 7/7
5 – HUKUM – won a bunch of group races, but doesn’t show up every now and then
3 – DEAUVILLE LEGEND – missed as the favorite in the Melbourne Cold Cup, finished 2nd by a head in last year’s King George V stakes
6 – PYLEDRIVER – been off for almost a year – clearly has the back class if he is ready, but resume says he was a bit rusty following his longest break
Race 5: WOKINGHAM HANDICAP
1 – FLAMING RIB – ran against the likes of Lucky Sweynesse and Wellington in his last, nothing like that in here
8 – ORAZIO – just obliterated a field on 8 at Ascot in his last, coming back for more in his 3rd up
4 – DUCA DI COMO – complete wildcard – comes in from Sweeden, usually runs routes, but won 9 of 16 on turf
27 – SPANGLED MAC – two trips at Ascot – done OK, likely better 2nd up and distance suites 4/2-1-0
Race 6: GOLDEN GATES HANDICAP
13 KNOCBREX – Frankie Dettori in his last Royal Ascot mount – it can’t be any other way!
3 – LIBERTY LANE – drops from a G2, lost to WAIPIRO in the race before that who won the HAMPTON STAKES on Thursday
1 – LOCAL DYNASTY – I foresee this one taking his game up in 2nd race after 7 months on the sidelines
6 – CANUTE
Race 7: QUEEN ALEXANDRA STAKES
3 – DAWN RISING – only made two starts in row before heading to the sidelines, lone win by 12
1 – STRATUM – has two wins in his last three at Ascot – but last three races sucked
6 – GOSHEN – usually heavily backed and right there at the end, win – nah – ITM yes
7 – RUN FOR OSCAR – showed more in both of his second starts after a layoff
