Horse Racing Picks and Analysis
Day one at Royal Ascot is in the books. Overall, it was a decent day for Tom and Rich. Let’s see what they’ve learned for what looks like an “anything can happen” humpday at Royal Ascot.
Royal Ascot Tips
Wednesday, June 21, 2023
Race 1: QUEEN MARY STAKES
Race 2: KENSINGTON PALACE HANDICAP
Race 3: DUKE OF CAMBRIDGE STAKES
Race 4: PRINCE OF WHALES’S STAKES
Race 5: ROYAL HUNT CUP HANDICAP
Race 6: QUEEN’S VASE STAKES
Race 7: WINDSOR CASTLE STAKES
Royal Ascot Picks and Comments
22 to 1 Tom’s Tips
Race 1 – 14:30
Queen Mary Stakes
22 – Onigiri – Draw 4
She won her first start at Redcar and had to work to do it, which is always impressive for me.
The time was a fair run but just under 4 seconds to the standard.
The dam side suggests made 7F will be her maximum distance but
Sire side, he was a winner of the Breeder’s Cup Turf Mile.
14 – Got To Love A Grey – Draw 15
A winner of her first 2 races, the first by 6L at Nottingham and 1/2L at York in listed race.
The last race was a quick time.
Dam side, this is her 6 foal and they are winning on both all-weather and turf at distance. One of the foal has produced a black type winner
Sire side was a good 2yo sprinter and was retired.
3 – Beautiful Diamond – Draw 17
1 race 1 win at Nottingham at 5F on the good to firm going.
She finished very strongly.
Favorite in this race at 4-1.
Dam side – only 1 other foal and related to a few sprinters
Sire side – strictly a sprinter
Race 2 – 15:05
Queen’s Vase
6 – Yerwanthere – Draw 10
Appeared have needed the first start. Dwelt at the start and the horse no racing luck with issues throughout the race.
She run 3 times with 2 wins and an average effort in a listed race. The 2 wins in Ireland one on the turf at 7F (first start) and 8F win on the all-weather.
12 – Tamarama – Draw 19
Won last out at Kempton on the all-weather at 1 mile. She had 2 races prior with average results.
She takes a rise in class and has won on both surfaces.
Distance isn’t an issue but off the last race, I think she can get the job done for an in-the-money finish. Favorite at 6-1. Plenty of value in this race.
14 – Farhh To Shy – Draw 22
Won last race at Ascot going 1 mile by a neck in class 2 handicap.
She’s been on the all-weather in January/February with average results.
Going back to the turf at Nottingham ran 3rd.
Her last race was very strongly run so I hope there isn’t a bounce.
Race 3 – 15:40
Duke Of Cambridge Stakes
7 – Prosperous Voyage – Draw 5
Wonderful run at Epsom last out winning by 3/4L in group 3 and looked the winner when they came into the straight.
Her first of the season wasn’t much except a first start.
She beat Inspiral last year at Newmarket in a group 1 so a top class filly and had returned to form.
My concern in her one run at Ascot was at Royal Ascot at a big nothing.
She likes to good to firm going.
1 – Grande Dame – Draw 6
This is her first start of the season after a good season last year.
Won her first start of her career at Ascot in maiden event.
She’s won a listed race and placed in 2 group races.
Let’s see how see will far here.
2 – Honey Girl – Draw 4
She’s been doing her running in Ireland with wins at the 7F distance at the Curragh on the soft going.
She went off the favorite in the last race after the 2 wins.
Back again, I think she’s good enough vs this bunch.
Race 4 – 16:20
Prince Of Wales’s Stakes
5 – Mostahdaf – Draw 6
The horse has been off since March and ran last in Dubai vs what is considered in the world, the Japanese horse Equinox who set the track record in that race. He ran 4th by 7L, not match for the winner.
He won his first start in group 3 on the good and firm going in Saudi Arabia.
Last season, after a layoff, he won on the all-weather and then sent to Paris for the Arc and finished dead last on the very soft going.
His one who needs good going.
6 – My Prospero – Draw 2
Ran vs. Modern Games at Newbury group 1, 8F long race. He’s won going 1 mile in the past and he’s only run in 7 races with the 4th last was his first out of the money finish.
He never won a group 1 but has preformed well starting in his maiden.
Off the last effort with some more distance and the other “big” horses in the race, he has a chance here.
1 – Adayar – Draw 3
Won last out at Newmarket on the soft going in group 3 race in his first start of the season.
He has had trouble remaining sound in his career and in 2021 he won the Epsom Derby over Mishriff on the good to firm going.
He ran 4th in the Arc in 2021.
Only 2 races last year with a win and a second to Bay Bridge.
In watch Classic Causeway in the past, he will want the lead. Luxembourg. Also wants the lead. Bay Bridge sits behind the leaders. I am taking a closer.
Race 5 – 17:00
Royal Hunt Cup
13 – Astro King – Draw 12
First start of the season at York 8F class 2 handicap ran on for 4th.
In the rear, waited for room to go, switched left but no clear run.
He hasn’t won since 2021 so why pick.
Last race was the best in a long time, he switched trainers before that race and has been gelded.
He’s listed at 9-1 right now, some bettors think he has a chance.
9 – Jimi Hendrix – Draw 7
Not much last out but the jockey comment was he ran too free. Forwardly placed and nothing. The winner on Tuesday at Royal Ascot.
Won on the soft going at Newbury in class 2
Nothing in his first start.
His has wins and placing on good going and we are getting that today.
7 – Intellogent – Draw 31
He’s been running vs better company before last race. Running a 6fh last out in class 2 race at Newbury at 8F.
He’s has some good runs at Ascot in the past with some placings.
Trainer has been doing too well lately and post position sucks but he’s listed at 8-1 right now. Hmmmmm
Race 6 – 17:35
Queen’s Vase Group 2
3 – Circle Of Fire – Draw 5
Ran a strange race at Lingfield last out, didn’t start well, was behind most of the race and then plugged along to get 3rd. The comment, he’s better than this. I think so too.
4 starts 1 win 2 placing at a distance of 7F, 8F and 9F.
A royal-owned horse who has a good chance here to improve off last.
12 – St Vincents Garden – Draw 1
Won last by a head at Fairyhouse going 12F.
This other 2 races were at distance of 12F and 13F.
Midpack running in last and moved up nicely as the joint favorite.
He want more distance based on his breeding.
10 – Saint George – Draw 4
Won last 2 races and the last at Doncaster at 14.5F in a class 3 handicap.
His other win was in a novice at Southwell on the all-weather at 11F.
He’s gotten better with more distance.
So 3 out of 4 races with 2 wins and 1 third.
Steps up but has been running and winning.
Race 7 – 18:10
Windsor Castle Stakes (listed)
15 – Maximum Impact – Draw 13
2 for 2 and one race Ascot.
Won first race by 12L and the next race by 21/4L
Raced second, pressed the leader, and the went by at the end.
Should be the favorite because he’s looked very good.
4 – Big Evs – Draw 19
One run, ran 2nd, green running and kinda a mess but still managed to do enough.
Plenty of room for improvement off the first effort.
Breed to go longer but give it a shot to improve off last.
5 – Bombay Bazaar – Draw 12
Won last 2 races at Beverley at 5F on the good to firm and good to soft.
First start ok effort in maiden running 3rd.
Keeps improving in its 3 races.
Breed to be a sprinter and develop early. Seems to be on that track.
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1: QUEEN MARY STAKES
14 – GOT TO LOVE A GREY – undefeated in two, well bet in both, saw speed hold up well 1st day, should be close to the pace
5 – BORN TO ROCK – debuted and won a 36k stakes race with ease on a good track
25 – RELIEF RALLY – unbeaten in two, should rate off the lead and rally won on Soft and Good
23 – OUT OF THE STARTS – PP: 7, not sure if it means anything, but PP 7 won 3/7 races with 6/8 scoring in another 2 – seems to be the right part of the track
Race 2: KENSINGTON PALACE HANDICAP
11 – BELHAVEN – loves the distance, 5/3-1-0 – 2nd was by a neck at Ascot, had excuses in only miss at a mile
6 – YERWANTHERE – ran out of room in his last at 7f, lone mile trip was AW and won
9 – TARRABB – 2 races at a mile with a win and a close third, always well bet
18 – DISCRETION – in the PP strike zone with PP 6; Robust turf breeding and all or nothing Turf 6/3-0-0, distance 4/2-0-0 – 3rd up and won only other 3rd up
Race 3: DUKE OF CAMBRIDGE STAKES
9 – RANDOM HARVEST – going to take a shot here, 2nd by a neck here last year, won another at Ascot and a third in another Ascot run – horse for the course?
4 – JUMBLY – strong performer in Group races and room to up her game in round two off the bench
7 – PROPEROUS VOYAGE third start after a layoff, is usually forwardly placed, reared up and broke near the back in her last and still won
10 – ROGUE MILLENNIUM – three high quality starts in 2023, winner? Probably not, ITM, probably and the coveted post position 7
Race 4: PRINCE OF WHALES’S STAKES
5 – MOSTAHDAF – let’s rip with another flyer, won his last 4 first up races
2 – BAY BRIDGE – 3rd up at his favorite distance 6/4-1-0
4 – LUXEMBOURG – the Irish Guineas translated in day one, let’s see if another Curragh G1 winner can take home the top prize – question is PP
Race 5: ROYAL HUNT CUP HANDICAP
17 – DUNUM – right distance for this guy 8/3-4-0, third up, won last third up
32 – MAJESTIC – lost to Cadilac in his last, who is a decent horse, has to be if I know it by name, was well bet and likes the distance 5/1-2-1 – another in the winning strike zone with PP 6
10 – GHALY – is usually really good or really bad. Most of the really good comes at today’s distance 5/3-1-0 and is only a half length from winning first three after almost 2 years in the barn
27 – WANEES – my favorite type, all or nothing – the last two sucked, really no other word for it, but has a couple of trips at Ascot and it was one of the two alls
Race 6: QUEEN’S VASE STAKES
10 – SAINT GEORGE – distance isn’t an issue, won last two, Osin Murphy rode in only other 2nd up and won
5 – GREGORY – is unbeaten in two easy wins and well bet in both – steps up in class is the question
9 – PEKING OPERA – Adian O’Bien, Ryan Moore, for a horse that looks like it wants distance and will get it today
8 – NURBURGRING – didn’t finish too far behind the 9 last out, adding an eight of mile here could be a difference maker
Race 7: WINDSOR CASTLE STAKES
6 – FANDOM – Irad gets his win with Wesley Ward – that 6f in race time of 57.1 at Keeneland is quick
20 – SERGENT WILKO – was hampered at the start of his debut, or he would be unbeaten in two
3 – BARNWLL BOY – won his debut with ease, w2w at 6f and cuts back to 5 here
15 – MAXIMUM IMPACT – won both of his race with ease and was well bet in both with some of the highest class ratings
