Saratoga brings a nine-race card with a mix of dirt, turf and even a marathon jumping opener, giving Terry and Rich plenty of different handicapping puzzles to work through.
Terry approaches the card through form, trainer and jockey statistics, track and distance records, workouts, class movement and longshot value, while Rich’s Ranks lean on Smart Sheets, SIM Speed, SIM Odds, Total Pace, C-ZONE, PAR, second-race parability, pace advantages, class drops and Saratoga-specific race profiles.
Here are Terry’s Picks and Rich’s Ranks for all nine races at Saratoga.
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Race 1: 2 3/8 Miles – Jumpers
Terry’s Picks
2 – Smart Uncle: Won last race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey; Can go to the distance.
4 – Coutach: Finished in the money in 6 races out of 6 career starts, winning 3 races; High % winning trainer.
5 – L’Imperator: Won 25% of his career starts; Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot: 1 – Mr Percy: Won last race at Saratoga; High % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternates: 3 – Siennois, 6 – Little Trilby
Rich’s Ranks
2 – SMART UNCLE
4 – COUTACH
3 – SIENNOIS
1 – MR PERCY
Race 2: 7 Furlongs – Early Speed, 36% W2W – Rail Bonus, 2/3 Best, 4+ Similar Big Discount
Terry’s Picks
2 – Whatchatalkinabout: Won last at Saratoga; Trainer wins 33% on dirt; Fastest Dirt Speed; High % jockey.
3 – Acoustic Ave: Finished 3rd in last race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Be You: Finished in the money in 5 races out of the last 6 starts, winning 2 races; High % winning trainer; Switches to a high % jockey; Drops in class today.
Longshot: 5 – Pentathlon: Finished in the money in 4 races out of the last 6 starts, winning 3 races; Drops in class today.
Alternates: 6 – Over and Ollie, 1 – El Grande O
Rich’s Ranks
6 – OVER AND OLLIE – pacesetter – SIM SP#, SIM ODDS fav – and Top TOTAL PACE
4 – BE YOU – biggest class dropper with the biggest in-race edge +5 LP
2 – WHATCHATALKINABOUT – most upside – only better ATB
3 – ACOUSTIC AVE – ITM 7/9 at Saratoga with better EP last out
$1 Pick 3: 4,6/2,3/3,4,6
Race 3: 1 3/16 Miles Turf – Stalkers, 29% W2W – Huge Rail Edge, 2-7 Fairish, 8+ None
Terry’s Picks
3 – Evenly Alert: Ran 2nd in last 2 races; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Protect and Defend: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie); Has a high % winning jockey.
8 – Pay the Piper: 2nd as favorite last out; Trainer wins 28% with beaten favorites; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot: 6 – Donnadoyawanna: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie); Blinkers added today; Good 4F workout (Aug-24).
Alternates: 10 – Hadrian’s Wall, 9 – Cromwell
Rich’s Ranks
3 – EVENLY ALERT – one of 2 YES horses – huge LP edge +18 – must have with the…
2 – DUTY – YES horse with the most upside
7 – PAUILLAC – biggest class dropper – good breeding for turf
5 – PROTECT AND DEFEND – SIM FAV with a standout C-ZONE
$5 Exacta Key Box: 3/2,5,7,8
Race 4: 6 Furlongs – Early Speed, 51% W2W – Inside Out
Terry’s Picks
3 – Senza Parole: Ran 2nd in last race; Highest speed figure at today’s distance; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; High % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – My Magic Wand: Ran 2nd vs tougher in last race, winning the prior race; Drops in class today; High % winning jockey.
6 – Strong State: Won last at Saratoga; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot: 4 – With the Angels: Highest speed figure at today’s distance; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
Alternates: 1 – Kappa Kappa, 2 – Beyond Belief
Rich’s Ranks
3 – SENZA PAROLE – TLRSP#+3 – better 5 Ways – could be better in 2nd up
6 – STRONG STATE – winner 3 of 4 at Saratoga – 1 of 6 elsewhere – LP+6 and Top C-ZONE
4 – WITH THE ANGELS – should be on the pace and does her best when forward
1 – KAPPA KAPPA – biggest class dropper – G2 and could be better in the 3rd up
Race 5: 1 Mile – Early Speed, Rail Small Discount, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Bonus
Terry’s Picks
3 – Amelia’s Echo: Drops in class; Gets high % jockey; Trainer wins 22% off 2+ class drops; Good 4F workout (Aug-27).
8 – Successful Agenda: Won 1 race out of 3 career starts; High % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Dia Por Dia: Won 1 race out of 2 career starts; High % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot: 5 – Twirly: Highest last race speed rating (tie); Can improve while returning to dirt; Drops in class today.
Alternates: 6 – Here’syourtrouble, 10 – Doppio Espresso
Rich’s Ranks
3 – AMELIA’S ECHO – tied for the most upside – good work between races – 2nd up
1 – DIA POR DIA – Top TOTAL PACE – 3rd race bounce back ability – should be forward
5 – TWIRLY – SIM FAV – most consistent – best SIM SP# by about a length
4 – MARGARITA MOLLY – tied for the most upside – could be pacesetter as standout C-ZONE
Race 6: 1 1/16 Miles Inner Turf – Stalkers, Rail Fair, 2/3 Best, 4-7 Discount
Terry’s Picks
4 – Inclusivity: Ran 2nd in last race; Switches to a high % jockey.
3 – Berta’s Stitch: In the money 2 of 3 starts; Switches to high % jockey; Top last-race rating; Fastest Turf Speed; Good 4F workout (Aug-27).
5 – George St.: Dam has 3 winners from 4 starters and 1 Turf winner; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 29% in a horse’s 1st race at route; Has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot: 8 – Gus’s Boy: First-time starter whose breeding suggests she will like the grass; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
Alternates: 9 – Epic Prayer, 10 – Motorcycle Cop
$.50 Pick 4: 3,4,5,8/1,4/5/4,6,7,9 – Cost $16.00
Rich’s Ranks
4 – INCLUSIVITY – 2nd race parability – extra distance could help
3 – BERTA’S STITCH – only YES horse = must have
11 – TONEACITY – top rated 1st timer vs all noes
5 – GEORGE ST. – Cox 2nd timer that was favorite in debut – stumbled at the start
Race 7: 5½ Furlongs Turf – Closers, Mostly Fair Except 2/3 Discount
Terry’s Picks
4 – Juneau: Ran 2nd in last race; Breeding suggests she will like the grass; High % winning trainer and jockey; Good 4F workout (Aug-22).
1 – Tappin Magic: Switches to a high % jockey; Good 4F workout (Aug-26).
3 – Joan’s Fault: First-time starter; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey; Decent workouts.
Longshot: 2 – Wildest Dreams: Can improve while trying grass as Dam has 5 winners from 8 starters and 3 Turf winners; Good 4F workout (Aug-26); Strong trainer and jockey stats.
Alternates: 13 – Southern Kiss, 14 – Night Sky
Rich’s Ranks
1 – TAPPIN MAGIC – all noes & 1 maybe – top 2nd Race Parability with +7 LS for experienced
11 – BOURBON MOJO – if you like the 1 – you’ve got to like the 11 – 1 point less 2nd Race Parability
6 – SNAPPER TIME – top rated 1ster – wth – rules are rules
4 – JUNEAU – maybe horse that needs just a little improvement – better 5 ways
Race 8: 6½ Furlongs – Stalkers, A Little Bonus 1-7, 8+ Discount
Terry’s Picks
5 – Braverthanubelieve: Won last race at Aqueduct; Drops in class today; High % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Nina Kay: Won last race at Saratoga; High % winning trainer wins 31% when taking a horse from a Sprint-Sprint-Route.
3 – Queens Cat: Won 6 races out of the last 10 starts; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
Longshot: 2 – Grace and Grit: Finished in the money in the last 6 starts, winning 3 races; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
Alternates: 1 – Kay Cup, 9 – Rina’s Revenge
Terry’s Best Bet of the Day
Race 8 – #5 BRAVERTHANUBELIEVE
Bet: $10 Win: 5 – $4 Exacta Box: 5/6 – $2 Exacta: 5/2,3,6 – $1 Exacta Box: 2,3,5,6
Rich’s Ranks
5 – BRAVERTHANUBELIEVE – top SIM SP# and TOTAL PACE – off since Dec – fast work – too fast?
3 – QUEENS CAT – on the lead as top C-ZONE – improved late in last – most upside
1 – KAY CUP – consistent with some upside – ran well in 4 of 5 fresh starts off the sidelines
6 – NINA KAY – could improve in the 3rd up – tends to bunch good races – Toga 3/1-1-1
Race 9: 1 1/16 Miles Inner Turf – Stalkers, Rail Fair, 2/3 Best, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Fair
Terry’s Picks
9 – I Can See That: Ran 2nd in last race; Likes the distance.
7 – Printer’s Alley: 3rd vs similar last out; High % trainer and jockey.
6 – Royal Browne: Likes Saratoga, finishing in the money in 50% of the races, winning 25% of the starts; Can handle the distance, finishing in the money in 50% of the races, winning 13% of the starts.
Longshot: 4 – T V Channel: Won last race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternates: 12 – Hot Property, 13 – Culprit
Rich’s Ranks
9 – I CAN SEE THAT – just missed last out – likely better in 2nd up
10 – MIRAGE – SIM FAV longshot – off record suggests good shot in 1st on grass
7 – PRINTER’S ALLEY – also just missed in same race as the 9 – 2nd up too
8 – VINTAGE VINO – 3rd race bounce back – as much upside as any for a YES
12 – HOT PROPERTY (MTO) – add if he scratches in off rain in the afternoon
