It’s Maiden Mania at Saratoga today, with five of the eight Thoroughbred races featuring horses looking for their first trip to the winner’s circle. Add inexperienced runners, first-time starters and limited form, and this card is loaded with unknowns.
That makes today a completely different handicapping challenge.
Rich comes in hot after a big day at Horseshoe Indianapolis, connecting on a Pick 4 and Exacta Key Box for more than $1,100 in total returns. Now the question is whether we can keep it going on a card where traditional past-performance handicapping may leave more questions than answers.
This is where Smart Sheets can become especially useful.
We’ll dig into:
- SIM Odds to uncover potential value
- SIM Speed and Total Pace advantages
- Projected first-call leaders and pace scenarios
- C-Zone and PAR indicators
- First-time starter signals
- Trainer and jockey statistics
- Improvement patterns from lightly raced horses
- Horses we can eliminate before trying to find the winner
With this many maidens, sometimes the biggest edge isn’t identifying the winner immediately. It’s figuring out which horses probably aren’t winning and shrinking a complicated field into something manageable.
Yesterday produced more than $1,100 in winning tickets.
Today brings the unknowns.
Maybe Smart Sheets can unlock another big day at Saratoga.
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Race 1
Terry’s Picks
1. #4 Cyber Ninja
Ran 2nd in last race; strong trainer/jockey stats.
2. #7 Philip My Dear
Finished in the money in 3 races out of the last 4 races, winning 2 races.
3. #6 Famous Figure
Ignoring the last race as he stumbled effecting his finish, winning the previous race easily.
Longshot: #5 Lynches Knock
Finished 3rd in last race; Has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
#2 King Al
Rich’s Picks
Race 1 – 2 3/8 Miles – Jumpers
1. #2 KING AL
2. #4 CYBER NINJA
3. #6 FAMOUS FIGURE
4. #7 PHILIP MY DEAR
Race 2 – Female
Terry’s Picks
1. #8 Beechwood’s Best
First time starter whose Dam has 1 winner from 1 starter; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey; Good 4F workout (Jul-31).
2. #4 Business Math
Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 20% of the races when taking a horse from a Maiden-to-Maiden Claiming race; strong jockey stats.
3. #3 Dream About
First time starter whose Dam has 6 winners from 7 starters; Breeding suits today’s sprint distance; Has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot: #2 Juneau
Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternates:
#1 Madison Moon
#6 My Bestie
Rich’s Picks
Race 2: 5 ½ Furlongs – Closers, 44% w2w – Strong Rail, 2/3 Tough, 4+ Fair
1. #2 JUNEAU – YES horse facing mostly 1st timers – 3rd race bounce back on MSW drop
2. #3 DREAM ABOUT – Top Rated 1ster
3. #8 BEECHWOOD’S BEST – 2nd rated 1ster
4. #1 MADISON MOON – 4th rated 1ster but on the rail with Irad
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 1,2,3,8
Race 3 – Female
Terry’s Picks
1. #7 Lots of Kisses
Finished 3rd vs similar in last race as the favorite; The trainer wins 25% with beaten favorites; Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters.
2. #4 R P Byrne
Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Highest last race speed rating (tie).
3. #2 Key Actress
Finished in the money in 2 races out of the last 3 races; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot: #9 Solaia
Finished in the money in 2 races out of 4 career races; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternates:
#8 Sweet Mackenzie
#3 Ilenas Kaz Way
$.50 Pick 4: 2,4,7,9/4,5/5,6,8/2,3,4,10 – Cost $48.00
Rich’s Picks
Race 3: 5 ½ Furlongs Turf – Closers, Rail and 8+ Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Fair
1. #7 LOTS OF KISSES – Irad, 3rd up and most upside
2. #4 R P BYRNE – Wesley Ward – Finally Healthy making 2nd up for the 1st time
3. #3 ILENAS KAZ WAY – 2nd race PARABILITY way past PAR – strong work between
4. #9 SOLAIA – most consistent as top TOTAL PACE
$0.50 Pick 4: 3,4,7/3,4,5/5,8/1,2,4,8,10
Race 4
Terry’s Picks
1. #4 Classic Time
Finished in the money in 4 races out of the last 6 races, winning 3 races; Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2. #5 Inexorable
Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 29% of the races in the 2nd race after claim; Has a high % winning jockey.
3. #3 Run Classic
Ran 2nd in last race; Highest last race speed rating; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot: #6 Fiddling Felix
Won 3 races out of 5 starts; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 21% of the dirt starts; Strong jockey stats.
Alternate:
#8 Trust Issues
Rich’s Picks
Race 4: 6 ½ Furlongs – Stalkers, Inside 3 Best, 4+ Discount with Inside Better
1. #4 CLASSIC TIME – SIM FAV and almost a length TOTAL PACE edge –
2. #5 INEXORABLE – solid Toga work for top SIM SP# – catches Irad
3. #3 RUN CLASSIC – most upside – as good or better in 2nd up
4. #6 FIDDLING FELIX – standout C ZONE – has 3 wins and 2 of them were last pair of 1st ups
Race 5 – Female
Terry’s Picks
1. #5 Brillante
Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2. #8 Artistic Success
Finished in the money in 2 races out of 4 races at Saratoga, winning 1 race; strong trainer and jockey stats.
3. #6 Greyjoy
Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Highest last race speed rating (tie).
Longshot: #3 Give Her Another
Finished 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in last race; strong trainer and jockey stats.
Alternate:
#2 Ur Desire
Rich’s Picks
Race 5: 1 1/16 Miles Inner Turf – Stalkers, Rail Discount, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Fairish
1. #8 ARTISTIC SUCCESS – Lone E with a ton of ES and standout C ZONE and jy/tr combo
2. #5 BRILLANTE – definitely been in against better in G3 Florida Oaks +7 LS edge
3. #3 GIVE HER ANOTHER – most value in the race and has as much upside as any
4. #6 GREYJOY – 3rd up with 3 sp# increases
$5 Exacta Key Box: 8/3,5,6
Race 6 – Female
Terry’s Picks
1. #10 Yolo Train
First time starter whose Breeding suggests she will like the grass; Good 4F workout (Jul-31); Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2. #4 Bankthemoneyhoney
First time starter whose Breeding suggests she will like the grass; Breeding suits today’s sprint distance; strong trainer and jockey stats.
3. #3 Omi Maria
First time starter whose Breeding suggests she will like the grass; high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot: #2 Mi Gordita
First time starter who has a high % winning trainer and jockey; Good 4F workout (Aug-01).
Alternate:
#6 Tappin Magic
$.50 Pick 4: 2,3,4,10/3,5,6,7/1,2/5,7,9 – Cost $48.00
Rich’s Picks
Race 6: 5 ½ Furlongs Turf – Closers, Rail and 8+ Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Fair
1. #8 SWEET GRACE – 2nd race upside past par
2. #2 MI GORDITA – top Rated 1ster with Bullet and Go
3. #1 INSTANT STARDOM – not the next rated 1ster – but has a Back Bullet and rail
4. #10 YOLO TRAIN – Brown – tough call over a few others
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,2,8,10/3,5,10,11/1,2/5,7,12
Race 7 – Female
Terry’s Picks
1. #5 She’s Fast Money
First time starter whose Dam has 2 winners from 2 starters; Breeding suits today’s sprint distance; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2. #6 Lauren’s Time
First time starter whose Dam has 2 winners from 2 starters; Breeding suits today’s sprint distance; strong trainer and jockey stats.
3. #3 Under the Moon
First time starter who has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot: #7 Lady Azul
Finished 3rd vs similar in only start; high % winning jockey.
Alternates:
#2 Beach Belle
#10 Sweet Lisa
Rich’s Picks
Race 7: 6 Furlongs – Early Speed – Inside Out
1. #3 UNDER THE MOON – 3rd rated firster – but better post
2. #11 CYBER BABY – top Rated 1ster with back bullet – but post hurts
3. #5 SHE’S FAST MONEY – another 1ster out of order – but highest remaining with back bullet
4. #10 SWEET LISA – 2nd race PARABILITY well enough past PAR
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 3,5,10,11
Race 8 – Female
Terry’s Picks
1. #1 Answered Prayers
Finished in the money in 3 races out of 4 career races, winning 1 race; Rail post is winning at 25% clip; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2. #2 Hidden Rose
Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Highest last race speed rating; strong trainer and jockey stats.
3. #5 Sailaway
One for one at Saratoga; Can improve while returning to dirt; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
Longshot: #6 Pens Street
Ran 2nd in last race; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternates:
#4 Brunch With Amy
#3 Higher Force
Bet: $20.00 Win: 1 – $10.00 Exacta Box:1/2- $10.00 Exacta: 1/2,5,6 – $5.00 Exacta Box: 1,2,5
Rich’s Picks
Race 8: 1 1/8 Miles – Stalkers, Strong Inside Out
1. #2 HIDDEN ROSE – 3SP# increases w/ TLRSP# +5 and SIM FAV – works between
2. #1 ANSWERED PRAYERS – most consistent in the race with top PAR+
3. #3 HIGHER FORCE – could be on the lead with top C ZONE – best published work prepping
4. #7 SERAPHIA
Terry’s Best Bet of the Day
Saratoga – Race 8 – #1 Answered Prayers
Race 9 – Female
Terry’s Picks
1. #7 Bourbon Milk Punch
Drops in class today; Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2. #9 Mistborn
Ran 2nd in last race; Has a high % winning trainer wand jockey.
3. #5 Gum
Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; strong trainer and jockey stats.
Longshot: #10 Channelview
Ran 2nd in last race; Strong trainer and jockey stats; Good 3F workout (Aug-06).
Alternate:
#12 Mappy
Rich’s Picks
Race 9: 1 Mile Inner Turf – Stalkers, Rail Best, 2/3 Discount, 4-7Bonus, 8+ Tough
1. #5 GUM – TLRSP# +3 – Top TOTAL PACE with Strongest PAR+ – Big Drop
2. #7 BOURBON MILK PUNCH – Big SIM FAV – 2nd big drop – most upside
3. #12 MAPPY – crappy post – 3rd up – better EP/FRACTIONS and standout C ZONE
4. #9 MISTBORN – Brown horse is ML FAV – trust David Aragona on making lines
$5 Exacta Key Box: 5/7,9,10,12
Best Bet of the Day
Saratoga – Race 8 – #1 Answered Prayers
