Saratoga brings a 9-race card today with a good mix of races and a few short fields that could produce some very short prices. That doesn’t mean we have to chase them.
The goal is to take smart shots—identify the favorites that deserve their odds, find the ones worth playing against, and use Smart Sheets to uncover value where the numbers give us a reason to look beyond the obvious.
Terry comes into today looking to make it two Best Bets in a row, while Rich will try to keep his August run going with his top selection winning at better than 40% for the month.
Smart Sheets will help us dig into:
- SIM Odds versus the Morning Line
- SIM Speed and Total Pace advantages
- Projected first-call leaders
- C-Zone and PAR
- Pace and improvement patterns
- Horses offering legitimate value at their expected price
Short fields can create short prices, so simply finding the winner isn’t enough. We want to know when the favorite is worth leaning on, when it’s worth taking a shot against, and how to build the ticket accordingly.
Terry has another Best Bet ready. Rich is looking to stay hot. And we’ll take our Smart Shots at Saratoga.
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Race 1 – 5 ½ Furlongs – Turf – Off
Terry’s Picks
3 – Combat Move: Ran 2nd vs similar (on Dirt) in only start; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – My Lil Army Girl: Finished 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in last race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Liberty’s Advance: Finished 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in last race; Dam has 1 winner from 2 starters (but 0 Turf winners); strong trainer/jockey stats.
Longshot:
2 – Lively Pal: Dam has 2 winners from 4 starters; Lasix added.
Alternate:
1 – Galway Gur
Rich’s Picks
7 – LIBERTY’S ADVANCE – lone YES – drops after better EP/Fractions
3 – COMBAT MOVE – 2nd race PARABILITY and the rest are noes and 1 maybe…
5 – MY LIL ARMY GIRL – sim fav and maybe
2 – LIVELY PAL – longest shot in a 5 horse race – other dropper and gets 1st Lasix
Rich’s Suggested Bet:
$5 Exacta Key Box: 7/2,3,5
Race 2 – 6 Furlongs – Inside Out Speed, 47% w2w
Terry’s Picks
2 – Mo the Merrier: Drops in class today; Switches to a high % jockey; Highest last race speed rating; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 19% of the Maiden-to-Maiden Claim.
5 – The Standard: 2nd in last race; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; strong trainer/jockey stats.
3 – Grand Gesture: Trainer who wins 23% of the Maiden Claiming races; Blinkers added today; Bullet 4F workout (Aug-07).
Longshot:
4 – Cost Effective: Has a high % winning trainer; Bullet 5F workout (Aug-03).
Alternate:
6 – Onepac
1 – Relative Risk
Terry’s Suggested Wager:
$.50 Pick 4: 2,3,4,5/1,3,4/1,4/2,3,4,8 – Cost $48.00
Rich’s Picks
2 – MO THE MERRIER – only YES and drops +10 SIM SP# and TOTAL PACE +7
6 – ONEPAC – better EP/Fractions and biggest dropper and standout C ZONE
5 – THE STANDARD – on the pace – could be poised for career best in 3rd up
3 – GRAND GESTURE – 3rd race bounce back ability to par
Rich’s Suggested Bet:
$1 Pick 4: 2,6/1,4/1,2/1,2,3,7,8
Race 3 – 1 Mile – Early Speed, 38% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Bonus
Terry’s Picks
1 – Lady Wisdom: 2nd vs similar at Saratoga last out; top last-race speed; 19% trainer 2nd off claim; top speed at today’s distance and best dirt speed.
3 – Island Charm: Won last race at Saratoga; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Babcie: Won last race at Saratoga.
Longshot:
2 – Our Preferred Pal: Early speed running style helps chances; Best Dirt speed is close to the Avg Winning Speed.
Alternate:
7 – Spirit of Esther
Rich’s Picks
1 – LADY WISDOM – TLRSP# +6 – top TOTAL PACE – most upside
4 – BABCIE – best chance to go w2w as pacesetter with standout C ZONE
7 – SPIRIT OF ESTHER – maybe horse at a price – career best at Toga and a mile
3 – ISLAND CHARM – moving up the speed ladder – distance 4/0-3-1
Race 4 – 1 3/16 Miles Turf – 4 Race, 2 w2w – 2 from Rail – 2 from 4-7
Terry’s Picks
1 – Majaz: A neck from winning both starts since arriving from Europe, Highest last race speed rating; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Midnight Concerto: Finished in the money in the last 6 races, winning 1 race; Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters; strong trainer and jockey stats.
5 – Tulip: Finished in the money in 2 races out of the last 3 races, winning 1 race; Drops in class today.
Longshot:
6 – Trail of Gold: Best Turf speed is faster than the Avg Winning Speed.
Alternate:
2 – Make You Mine
Rich’s Picks
2 – MAKE YOU MINE – think you are going to see a stakes race from this one next
1 – MAJAZ – rides rail with a length Total Pace advantage
5 – TULIP – on the lead with a standout C ZONE
4 – MIDNIGHT CONCERTO – as consistent as can be but has the most upside pop
Rich’s Suggested Bet:
$5 Exacta Key Box: 2/1,4,5
Race 5 – 6 Furlongs – Inside Out Speed, 47% w2w
Terry’s Picks
8 – Mascara: Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race; Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Vekomancer: Drops in class today; strong trainer and jockey stats.
4 – Spun Size: Ran 2nd in last race; Highest speed figure at today’s distance; strong trainer and jockey stats.
Longshot:
2 – Calling an Audible: Finished in the money in 4 races out of the last 6 races, winning 1 race; strong jockey stats.
Alternate:
9 – Cloudy Chance
7 – St. Brigid’s Cross
Rich’s Picks
7 – ST. BRIGID’S CROSS – YES horse with best chance to go w2w with standout C ZONE – bullet work between start – why not at a price?
2 – CALLING AN AUDIBLE – top PAR+ and Total Pace
3 – VEKOMANCER – right distance with both wins – a lot going on here – turf to dirt, route to sprint – seems like tr Rice is searching
8 – MASCARA – won her lone SPA start – better EP/Fractions and drops
Rich’s Suggested Bet:
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 2,3,7,8
Race 6 – 1 Mile Inner Turf – Stalkers, Strong Rail, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Hard
Terry’s Picks
1 – Fionn: Rail post is winning at 30% clip ñ Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Shotgun Wedding: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Bullet 5F workout (Aug-02); strong trainer and jockey stats.
3 – Table Flirt: Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
4 – Ready to Jam: Can improve while returning to a route; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
6 – Spinning Colors
Terry’s Suggested Wager:
$.50 Pick 4: 1,2,3/3,6/1,3/2,3,4,5,6,7,8,10 – Cost $48.00
Rich’s Picks
1 – FIONN – won 7/11 including a Grade I stakes
3 – TABLE FLIRT – TLRSP#+4 – but always runs at about the same level – top C ZONE
2 – SHOTGUN WEDDING – top Total Pace +6
4 – READY TO JAM – biggest in race edge of +6 EP – left arrow – maybe never gives it up
Rich’s Suggested Bet:
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,3/3,4,5,6/1,3,6/2,4,5,7
Race 7 – 5 ½ Furlongs Turf – Closers, Strong Rail & 8+, Middle almost Fair
Terry’s Picks
6 – Shoot It True: Likes Saratoga, finishing in the money in 100% of the races, winning 25% of the starts; Can handle the distance, finishing in the money in 86% of the races, winning 14% of the starts.
3 – Highway Harmony: Won the last 4 races; Highest last race speed rating; Good 4F workout (Aug-06).
4 – Quiet Confidence: Ran 2nd in last race; Bullet 3F workout (Aug-05); High % winning trainer.
Longshot:
1 – Abientot: Finished 3rd in last race; Rail post is winning at 19% clip; Bullet 4F workout (Aug-01); High % winning trainer.
Alternate:
5 – Amber Cascade
Rich’s Picks
6 – SHOOT IT TRUE – most upside – with top C ZONE and Total Pace
3 – HIGHWAY HARMONY – TLRSP#+ 3 in late June – strong works and dangerous on the lead
4 – QUIET CONFIDENCE – just missed last out – better ATB
5 – OPULENT RESTRAINT – best turf breeding and it ain’t close – longest shot 5 horse field
Race 8 – 1 ¾ Miles – No Races
Terry’s Picks
3 – Stars and Stripes: Won 2 races out of the last 3 starts; Drops in class today; strong trainer/jockey stats.
1 – Parchment Party: 2 for 3 starts at Saratoga; Rail post is winning at 20% clip; Drops in class today; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters.
2 – Annexperience: Won last race at Saratoga; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Interceptor: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race as the favorite; The high % winning trainer wins 25% with beaten favorites; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
7 – Jokestar
4 – Passing Game
Terry’s Suggested Wager:
$20.00 Win: 3
$10.00 Exacta Box: 1/3
$10.00 Exacta: 3/1,2,6
$5.00 Exacta Box: 1,2,3
Rich’s Picks
1 – PARCHMENT PARTY – SIM FAV tied for the most upside the 6 and drops
6 – INTERCEPTOR – the other with strong upside and top PAR+ – a little better than the 1
3 – STARS AND STRIPES – Top TOTAL PACE and the other dropper
2 – ANNEXPERIENCE – out on the lead can be a good place at the right pace
Race 9 – 6 Furlongs – Inside Out Speed, 47% w2w
Terry’s Picks
2 – Criteria: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; strong trainer/jockey stats.
3 – Spherica: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; strong trainer/jockey stats.
10 – Holy Seven: Has a high % winning trainer and jockey; Good 5F workout (Aug-06).
Longshot:
4 – Royal Enclosure: First time starter whose Sire wins 20% with 1st time Starters; Dam has 2 winners from 3 starters; Breeding suits today’s sprint distance.
Alternate:
7 – Bamboozie
Rich’s Picks
5 – DARK FORCE – 2 could be a very short price – 3 chances to beat her – firsters in order
7 – BAMBOOZIE
4 – ROYAL ENCLOSURE
2 – CRITERIA – Smart Sheets stats smoke all the other experiences horses
Rich’s Suggested Bets:
$1 Exacta Box: 3,4,5,7
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 2,4,5,7
Terry’s Best Bet of the Day
Saratoga – Race 8 – #3 Stars and Stripes
