Humpday at Saratoga, and eight races are plenty when you’re dealing with The Spa.
We’ve got fast dirt and firm turf, Terry is back alongside Rich, and Smart Sheets are ready to go to work on another Saratoga card.
The mission remains pretty simple: find the horses that have an edge, eliminate the ones that don’t, and make sure the price makes sense before we put together the tickets.
We’ll use Smart Sheets to break down SIM Odds versus the Morning Line, SIM Speed and Speed Edge, Early, Late and Total Pace, projected first-call leaders, C-Zone and PAR, improvement patterns, and potential overlays versus vulnerable favorites.
Saratoga has a way of making even the races that look straightforward anything but. That’s why identifying horses we don’t want can be every bit as important as finding the ones we do.
Eight races. Fast and firm. Terry’s back. Rich is ready.
Let’s get to work at The Spa.
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Race 1 – 7 Furlongs – Early Speed, Rail Strong, 2/3 Best, 4+ Same Big Discount
Terry’s Picks
5 – All Class: Finished in the money in 2 races out of the last 2 starts, winning 1 race; Drops in class today; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie); Has a high % winning trainer.
2 – Save Us Melania: Finished in the money in 4 races out of the last 6 starts, winning 2 races; Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Street View: Switches to a high % jockey; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 44% of the races when taking a horse from Route to a Sprint.
Longshot:
6 – Malu: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Switches to a high % jockey; Good 5F workout (Aug-12).
Alternate:
1 – Thirteen Red Flags
Rich’s Picks
5 – ALL CLASS – SIM FAV and 2 Lengths TOTAL PACE
2 – SAVE US MELANIA – best chance to go w2w – bias fit and lone dropper
6 – MALU – best chance to hit at a Price – Yes Horse can run any style
4 – STREET VIEW – taking the 4 over the 1 – YES vs NO
Suggested Wager
No suggested wager from Rich.
Race 2 – 1 Mile – Early Speed, 2/3 and 8+ Best
Terry’s Picks
7 – Concurrently: Won last race at Aqueduct; Highest last race speed rating (tie); Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Pronghorn: Ran 2nd vs tougher in last race; Drops in class today; strong trainer and jockey stats.
3 – Ultimate Authority: Ran 2nd in last race; Highest speed figure at today’s distance; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Bullet 3F workout (Aug-14).
Longshot:
4 – Ballerina d’Oro: Finished in the money in 3 races out of the last 4 starts, winning 1 race; Drops in class today; Lasix added.
Alternates:
1 – Purloin
5 – Midtown Lights
Terry’s Suggested Wager
$.50 Pick 4: 3,4,6,7/2,4,7,8/3,7/1,3,6 – Cost $48.00
Rich’s Picks
7 – CONCURRENTLY – on the pace with the top C ZONE and tied for most upside
6 – PRONGHORN – biggest in race edge and most likely winner +8 LS
3 – ULTIMATE AUTHORITY – chance to hit at price – YES horse that could be forward – tied for most upside with the 7
4 – BALLERINA D’ORO – biggest class dropper – been off since May 25 – KY Oaks
Rich’s Suggested Wager
$0.50 Pick 4: 6,7/2,4,6,8/1,2,3,7/1,2,6
Race 3 – 7 Furlongs – Early Speed, Rail Strong, 2/3 Best, 4+ Same Big Discount
Terry’s Picks
8 – Celestial Body: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Can improve at the shorter distance; Has a high % winning trainer.
7 – Hot Gossip: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 29% when taking a horse from a Route to Sprint; Has a high % winning jockey.
4 – Cravings: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
2 – Baseball Lady: Finished in the money in 2 races out of the last 3 races, winning 1 race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternates:
1 – Huck’s Agenda
5 – Pinky Brier
Rich’s Picks
8 – CELESTIAL BODY – any improvement in 2nd is a winner
6 – L’ÉCLAIR – strongest PAR+ and I think Jose Ortiz could win riding a donkey right now
2 – BASEBALL LADY – Top Total Pace – some Value as a YES horse – good bias fit
4 – CRAVINGS – trainer doesn’t run many 31 for the year – wins at 32%
Suggested Wager
No suggested wager from Rich.
Race 4 – 6 Furlongs – Early Speed, 49% w2w – Inside Out
Terry’s Picks
7 – Gardiner: Won last race at Churchill Downs; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Treaty Obligation: Finished in the money in 3 races out of 4 races at Saratoga, winning 1 race; Can improve while returning to Dirt.
5 – Mischievous M: Early speed running style helps chances so the shorter distance will be a plus; Has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
9 – Protected: Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
2 – Big Hat Willie
Rich’s Picks
7 – GARDINER – most likely winner – on the pace with a standout C ZONE
3 – TREATY OBLIGATION – Yes Horse with the best AVG race – better in round 2
2 – BIG HAT WILLIE – a price with a chance – 5 ways better and drops
1 – TRUST ISSUES –another shot over the 5 – rail – Yes – better EP/Fractions – drops
Rich’s Suggested Wager
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 1,2,3,7
Race 5 – 5 ½ Furlongs Turf – Closers, Everything but 2/3, Rail Best
Terry’s Picks
1 – Hot Off the Beach: Ran 2nd in last race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Sultan Hassan: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; The shorter distance may help; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – True Legend: Ignore last race via plenty of trouble; Drops in class today; Has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
8 – Story of Rory: Ran 2nd in last race; Strong jockey stats.
Alternate:
2 – Ur Desire
Terry’s Suggested Wager
$.50 Pick 4: 1,3,6,8/2,3,4,6,8/7/3,5,7,9,10 – Cost $50.00
Rich’s Picks
1 – HOT OFF THE BEACH – 2nd Race Parability well past par – moving up
6 – TRUE LEGEND – lone YES – forget the last 500K NGST and only on dirt – turf is his thing
2 – ENGRAVED – 3.0 firster with Back and Bullet at Go and the rest are now and maybes
5 – VIOLENT ACT – 2nd rated 1st timer – trainer + ROI for 1st time and debuting on Turf
Rich’s Suggested Wager
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,2,5,6/2,5/3,4,7,8/3,5,11
Race 6 – 7 Furlongs – Early Speed, Rail Strong, 2/3 Best, 4+ Same Big Discount
Terry’s Picks
3 – Discotheque: Ran 2nd in last race, winning the previous race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Sea Vista: Won last race at Aqueduct; Has a high % winning trainer; Switches to a high % winning jockey.
4 – Moment’s Notice: Won last race at Saratoga; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
8 – Solo Jim: Won 2 races out of last 3 starts; Has a high % winning jockey.
Alternates:
6 – Big Gain
7 – Uncle Jim
Rich’s Picks
2 – SEA VISTA – could the pacesetter – Jose – fires 1st up and bet SIM SP#
5 – SOUTH BEND TOM – SIM FAV with PAR+ >50% – and top C ZONE
3 – DISCOTHEQUE – lone E Potential – big pop in last race – regression is possible too
6 – BIG GAIN – tough call over the 8 – more upside – but has struggled at Toga
Rich’s Suggested Wager
$5 Exacta Key Box: 2/3,5,6
Race 7 – 1 Mile Inner Turf – Stalkers, Rail Strongest, 4-7 Next, 8+ Tough
Terry’s Picks
7 – She’s Country: Won 2 races out of 3 career starts; Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Combat Move: Won last race at Saratoga; strong trainer and jockey stats.
5 – Celtic Dawn: Won 3 races out of 4 career starts; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
Longshot:
2 – Greyjoy: Finished in the money in 6 races out of 8 career races, winning 1 race; High % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternates:
6 – Lifeisbutadream
1 – Into the Unknown
Terry’s Suggested Wager
$20.00 Win: 7
$10.00 Exacta Box: 4/7
$10.00 Exacta: 7/2,4,5
$5.00 Exacta Box: 4,5,7
Rich’s Picks
4 – COMBAT MOVE – Jose –long for the 1st time – 2nd in debut to an allowance win – won last
7 – SHE’S COUNTRY – ML FAV – maybe -1 with TLRSP# +6
8 – SHAKE EM OFF – all noes and maybe – 1ster with back bullet – Prat/Nevin 2/2 +7.57 ROI
3 – MORNING PRAYER – SIM FAV – 4 SP# increases in a row
Rich’s Suggested Wager
$5 Exacta Key Box: 4/3,7,8
Race 8 – 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Closers, 4-7 Best, Rail Struggles
Terry’s Picks
3 – Paula’s Choice: Drops in class today; a high % winning trainer and jockey; Lasix & Blinkers added.
5 – Bounding Along: Bumped in last race which affected her finish, finishing 2nd the prior start; Breeding suggests she will like the grass; strong trainer and jockey stats.
9 – Two Clicks: Strong trainer and jockey stats.
Longshot:
10 – Roasted Reds: High % winning trainer; Switches to a high % Jockey.
Alternates:
11 – Stella Fortuna
7 – Raynham Hall
Rich’s Picks
3 – PAULA’S CHOICE – could make EZ work here if she comes close to 2nd Race Parability
5 – BOUNDING ALONG – 3rd race bounce back and last race not as bad as it looks -better EP/Fractions
11 – STELLA FORTUNA – better EP – should be close and has LP
7 – RAYNHAM HALL – the other YES horse – maybe going longer helps
Rich’s Suggested Wager
$16 Win: 3
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 3,5,7,11
Best Bet of the Day
Saratoga Race 7 – #7 SHE’S COUNTRY
Terry’s Best Bet of the Day is #7 She’s Country.
She’s Country comes into this race having won 2 of her first 3 career starts and owns the fastest Best Turf Speed among today’s starters. She also has a high-percentage trainer and jockey combination and has already shown the ability to deliver against quality competition.
The one-mile inner turf distance presents a new challenge, but her combination of proven winning form, turf ability and upside gives her a strong chance to take another step forward.
Rich also has She’s Country as his second choice, giving #7 support from both sides of today’s handicapping.
Terry’s Best Bet Wagers
$20 Win – #7 She’s Country
$10 Exacta Box – 4/7
$10 Exacta – 7/2,4,5
$5 Exacta Box – 4,5,7
Terry vs. Rich – Where They Agree
There are several important races where Terry and Rich land on many of the same horses today. Race 1 is particularly strong, with both having #5 All Class on top and also including #2 Save Us Melania, #6 Malu and #4 Street View among their contenders.
In Race 2, both have #7 Concurrently, #6 Pronghorn, #3 Ultimate Authority and #4 Ballerina d’Oro among their top four.
Race 7 could be one of the most interesting races on the card. Terry makes #7 She’s Country his Best Bet, while Rich puts #4 Combat Move on top and She’s Country second. That makes the 4 and 7 the two key horses to watch and explains Terry’s 4/7 Exacta Box.
Race 8 provides another strong point of agreement, as both Terry and Rich have #3 Paula’s Choice and #5 Bounding Along as their top two selections.
Good luck today at Saratoga!
