Eight races at Saratoga today with fast dirt and firm turf, and Rich comes into The Spa looking to keep one heck of a start to the week rolling.

Through the first two days:

• 5 of 8 Pick 4s hit
• Yesterday, Rich’s top pick won 5 of 9 races
• His second choice won another 3
• That means Rich’s first or second choice won 8 of yesterday’s 9 races

Now we try to do it again at Saratoga.

Smart Sheets will help Terry and Rich work through the card using SIM Odds, SIM Speed, Early and Late Pace, Total Pace, C-Zone, PAR, projected first-call leaders and improvement signals to identify where the real advantages might be.

But we’re not interested in simply stacking up short-priced winners. The goal is to use those rankings to decide where we can lean on a horse, where we need coverage, where a favorite might be vulnerable and where the value belongs on the ticket.

Because picking winners is great.

Turning those winners into winning tickets is the point.

Eight races at The Spa. Fast and firm.

Let’s see if Rich can keep the heater going.

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Race 1 – Female – 6½ Furlongs – Stalkers, Posts Fair Except 8+ Discount

Terry’s Picks

7 – Cody’s Approval: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; a high % winning trainer and jockey.

1 – Atlas a Eye: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; a high % winning trainer and jockey.

3 – Lady Starstruck: Debut runner; sire wins 18% with first-time starters; dam has 2 winners from 3 starters and 1 stakes winner; sprint-bred; good 4F workout (Aug-20).

Longshot:

6 – Belmont C. C.: Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Alternates:

5 – Dotsy

4 – Freshly Minted

Rich’s Picks

3 – LADY STARSTRUCK – 2nd rated 1ster – but prefer Toga works to Flakes

5 – DOTSY – top rated 1ster vs noes and a few other 1sters

1 – ATLAS A EYE – speed and late fade in debut – decently bet – more stamina today

7 – CODY’S APPROVAL – TLRSP# +19 vs the other experienced horses

Terry vs. Rich

This opener immediately presents a difference of opinion. Terry prefers the proven #7 Cody’s Approval, while Rich takes his shot with first-time starter #3 Lady Starstruck.

The important overlap is that both Terry and Rich include #1 Atlas a Eye, #3 Lady Starstruck and #7 Cody’s Approval among their major contenders.

Rich’s inclusion of #5 Dotsy is particularly interesting because Dotsy is Terry’s alternate but Rich’s second choice.

Race 2 – 1 1/16 Miles Inner Turf – Stalkers

Post Position: Rail Discount, 2/3 Best, 4-7 Small Discount, 8+ Fair

Terry’s Picks

7 – Unit Economics: Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

6 – Right to Win: Finished in the money in 7 races out of the last 9 starts, winning 3 races; strong trainer and jockey stats.

8 – Late Call: Finished 3rd in last race; Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie); Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Longshot:

5 – Brigadier General: Switches to a high % winning jockey; Drops in class today; Highest speed figure at today’s distance.

Alternate:

1 – Ambition

Terry’s Suggested Wager

$.50 Pick 4: 6,7/5,6/1,4,5,6,8/1,3,5,7,9 – Cost $50.00

Rich’s Picks

6 – RIGHT TO WIN – standout C ZONE – runs well off the bench – won lone Toga Turf

7 – UNIT ECONOMICS – Top Total Pace +9 – likes to finish 2nd

5 – BRIGADIER GENERAL – could get loose on the lead, most upside, biggest drop – 1st turf is the ?

2 – HEATHGUARD – 3rd up – better EP/Fractions and drops

Rich’s Suggested Wager

$0.50 Pick 4: 6,7/1,5,6/2,5,6,7/3,7,8,9

Terry vs. Rich

This is one of the better agreement races early on the card.

Terry has #7 Unit Economics first and #6 Right to Win second.

Rich simply reverses them:

#6 Right to Win first and #7 Unit Economics second.

Rich’s case for Right to Win centers on the standout C-Zone, the ability to fire fresh and his victory in his only Saratoga turf appearance.

Unit Economics counters with a powerful +9 Total Pace advantage, although Rich’s comment that he “likes to finish 2nd” identifies the obvious concern.

The potentially interesting price horse is #5 Brigadier General. Terry labels him his Longshot while Rich moves him all the way up to third and notes that he could get loose on the lead.

Race 3 – Female – 7 Furlongs – Early Speed

Post Position: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Best, 4+ Similar Discount

Terry’s Picks

5 – Timia: Finished 3rd in last race; Early speed running style helps chances; Has a high % winning jockey.

6 – Our Preferred Pal: Ran 2nd in last race; Switches to a high % jockey; speed running style helps chances so returning to a sprint is a plus.

1 – Furry Fox: Won last race at Saratoga; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

Longshot:

8 – Kaz Farm Girl: Won last race at Saratoga; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Good 4F workout (Aug-20).

Alternate:

7 – Sabby Sunset

Rich’s Picks

1 – FURRY FOX – taking a shot – won last out on the lead – gets there again – 2nd up

5 – TIMIA – Top TOTAL PACE and SIM SP#

6 – OUR PREFERRED PAL – speed and fade in 1st up – could pop in 2nd up

7 – SABBY SUNSET – 3rd up with standout C ZONE and SIM ODDS fav – better EP/fractions

Terry vs. Rich

Terry and Rich have the same three primary contenders but arrange them differently.

Terry: 5-6-1
Rich: 1-5-6

That makes #1 Furry Fox, #5 Timia and #6 Our Preferred Pal the central horses in the race.

Rich takes the more aggressive position with #1 Furry Fox, expecting another forward trip after winning on the lead last time.

But #5 Timia may have the strongest Smart Sheets numbers of the group, with Rich identifying her as both Top TOTAL PACE and Top SIM SP#. Terry also makes Timia his top selection.

Another horse worth watching is #7 Sabby Sunset. Terry lists her as an alternate, but Rich has her fourth with a standout C-Zone, SIM Odds favoritism and improved Early Pace/fractions.

Race 4 – Female – 5½ Furlongs Turf – Closers

Post Position: Everything Works Except 2/3

Terry’s Picks

1 – Vajra: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Strong trainer and jockey stats; Good 4F workout (Aug-15).

6 – Chestnut: Finished in the money in 2 races out of 3 career starts; Highest last race speed rating (tie); Breeding suggests she will like the grass.

4 – Fletch’s Rockette: Ran 2nd vs similar (on Dirt) in last race; Highest last race speed rating (tie); Strong trainer and jockey stats.

Longshot:

5 – Empress New Groove: Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Alternates:

8 – My Divine Spirit

2 – Saint Tropez

Rich’s Picks

2 – SAINT TROPEZ – 2nd race Parabilty – faded in debut – more stamina w/ 5 works since

5 – EMPRESS NEW GROOVE – only YES horse = must have

7 – FOSTER LANE – 1st timer and the rest are noes and maybes

6 – CHESTNUT – 1st on turf – but the breeding is there and standout C ZONE for experienced

Rich’s Suggested Wager

$5 Exacta Key Box: 2/5,6,7

Terry vs. Rich

This is where the handicapping becomes considerably more interesting.

Terry’s top horse, #1 Vajra, doesn’t appear in Rich’s top four.

Rich’s top horse, #2 Saint Tropez, is only an alternate for Terry.

But there is one horse sitting right in the middle of both approaches:

#5 Empress New Groove

Terry identifies her as his Longshot and notes that she owns the fastest Turf Speed in the field.

Rich elevates her to second choice and, more importantly, calls her the only YES horse.

That Terry/Rich discrepancy could make #5 Empress New Groove one of the more interesting potential value horses on the first half of today’s Saratoga card.

First-Half Horses to Watch

Race 1 – #3 Lady Starstruck
Terry’s third choice but Rich’s top selection.

Race 2 – #6 Right to Win
Terry’s second choice and Rich’s #1 with a standout C-Zone.

Race 3 – #5 Timia
Terry’s #1, Rich’s #2 and owns Rich’s Top TOTAL PACE and SIM SP#.

Race 4 – #5 Empress New Groove
Terry’s Longshot becomes Rich’s #2 and only YES horse.

Race 5 – 1 1/16 Miles Inner Turf – Stalkers

Post Position: Rail Discount, 2/3 Best, 4-7 Small Discount, 8+ Fair

Terry’s Picks

9 – Al Mowashaah: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; strong trainer/jockey stats; Highest last race speed rating.

7 – Calling Mr. Mo: Has a high % winning trainer and jockey; Dam has 6 winners from 7 starters and 2 Turf winners; Can improve at the longer distance.

3 – Our Warrior: First time starter whose Breeding suggests he will like the grass; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

Longshot:

1 – House of War: First time starter whose Breeding suggests he will like the grass; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

Alternate:

5 – Nystateofmind

Terry’s Suggested Wager

$.50 Pick 4: 1,3,7,9/2,6/3,6/1,3,4,7,8,9 – Cost $48.00

Rich’s Picks

3 – OUR WARRIOR – 1st timer – Jose, Breeding is there – all noes and a 2nd race Parability

7 – CALLING MR. MO – 2nd race Parabilty after an awkward start in debut

9 – AL MOWASHAAH – most upside for experienced horses – Irad and Brad Cox

8 – MR. ROGERS – 2nd rated 1ster – solid breeding – trainer’s best angle – debut on turf

Rich’s Suggested Wager

$0.50 Pick 4: 3,7,8,9/2,3/1,2,6/1,4,6,9

Terry vs. Rich

This is another race where Terry and Rich identify the same three primary contenders, but rank them differently.

Terry: 9-7-3
Rich: 3-7-9

Terry favors the proven form of #9 Al Mowashaah, who comes off a runner-up finish and owns the highest last-race speed rating.

Rich takes the upside approach with first-time starter #3 Our Warrior, pointing to the turf breeding and Jose Ortiz.

The strongest agreement may actually be #7 Calling Mr. Mo, because both handicappers rank him second. His debut included an awkward start, and the longer distance could give him an opportunity to move forward.

Race 6 – 1 Mile – Early Speed

Post Position: 8+ Best, Then 2/3 – The Rest Discounted

Terry’s Picks

2 – Secured Landing: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Early speed running style helps chances so the shorter distance will be a plus; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

6 – Glen Airy: Won last race at Saratoga; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

7 – Unload: In the money in 3 of last 5, with 2 wins; top Dirt Speed; trainer/jockey combo 18 8-0-4 last 14 days.

Longshot:

3 – Trusty Rusty: In the money in 8 of last 10, with 2 wins and 5 2nd’s; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Alternate:

8 – Gee No Hollander

Terry’s Suggested Wager

$20.00 Win: 2

$10.00 Exacta Box: 2/6

$10.00 Exacta: 2/3,6,7

$5.00 Exacta Box: 2,6,7

Terry’s Best Bet of the Day

Race 6 – #2 Secured Landing

Terry makes #2 Secured Landing his Best Bet of the Day at Saratoga.

The shorter one-mile distance should work in his favor because of his early-speed running style, and his record at the distance is a major part of the appeal. Rich’s numbers reinforce that point: Secured Landing has 7 wins from 11 starts at the distance, compared with only 2 wins from 10 starts at other distances.

Terry is looking for Secured Landing to secure a forward position, take advantage of the cutback and turn that strong one-mile record into another victory.

Rich’s Picks

3 – TRUSTY RUSTY – Yes horse – Irad and standout C ZONE

2 – SECURED LANDING – should be on the pace – 7 wins in 11 at distance – 2 in 10 at others

6 – GLEN AIRY – better 5 ways and should be a little better in 2nd up

8 – GEE NO HOLLANDER – SIM FAV and TOP TOTAL PACE

Terry vs. Rich

Here’s one of the day’s most important disagreements.

Terry makes #2 Secured Landing his Best Bet of the Day, while Rich puts #3 Trusty Rusty on top.

But Rich certainly isn’t against Secured Landing. He ranks him second and highlights the horse’s exceptional 7-for-11 record at one mile.

Rich’s reason for preferring Trusty Rusty is Smart Sheets driven: he’s a YES horse, gets Irad and owns the standout C-Zone.

There’s another interesting horse underneath:

#8 Gee No Hollander is only Terry’s alternate, but Rich identifies him as the SIM favorite and Top TOTAL PACE horse.

This makes Race 6 particularly interesting for ticket construction even though Terry has a strong opinion on the winner.

Race 7 – Female – 5½ Furlongs Turf – Closers

Post Position: Everything Works Except 2/3

Terry’s Picks

3 – Side Quest: Won last race at Saratoga; High % winning trainer and jockey.

6 – Allura: Won her debut race at Saratoga; Strong trainer and jockey stats; Good 4F workout (Aug-16).

1 – More Champagne: Won 1 race out of 2 career starts; Drops in class today; Has a high % winning jockey.

Longshot:

2 – Go for Launch: Won her debut race at Keenland; strong trainer and jockey stats.

Alternates:

5 – Lexi’s Charm

4 – Extravaganzoo

Rich’s Picks

1 – MORE CHAMPAGNE – 3rd race bounce back and it might not be close

6 – ALLURA – 2nd best 2nd race Parability – but prefer the Toga horse over the Woodbine

2 – GO FOR LAUNCH – best 2nd race Parability

3 – SIDE QUEST – we’ll take Yes horse over a few others in an open race

Rich’s Suggested Wager

$5 Exacta Key Box: 1/2,3,6

Terry vs. Rich

Terry and Rich agree on the four horses that matter most, but there is a major difference in ranking.

Terry puts #3 Side Quest first.

Rich puts Side Quest fourth.

Instead, Rich makes a very strong statement about #1 More Champagne, saying the third-race bounce back “might not be close.”

That is significant because Terry already has More Champagne third. So this isn’t a horse Terry dislikes—Rich simply likes her considerably more.

#6 Allura provides the strongest consensus. Both Terry and Rich rank her second.

The other intriguing runner is #2 Go for Launch. Terry calls her the Longshot, while Rich moves her to third and says she owns the best second-race Parability.

That makes Go for Launch a horse worth considering at the right price.

Race 8 – Female – 7 Furlongs – Early Speed

Post Position: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Best, 4+ Similar Discount

Terry’s Picks

3 – Starship Lizzy: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Highest last race speed rating (tie); Strong trainer and jockey stats.

9 – Raised: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Highest last race speed rating (tie); Strong trainer and jockey stats.

1 – All Bright: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Switches to a high % winning jockey.

Longshot:

7 – Hanna’s Hideaway: Ran 2nd in last race; Can go the distance.

Alternates:

4 – Forever to Go

8 – That’s Amore

Rich’s Picks

4 – FOREVER TO GO – only YES = must have

1 – ALL BRIGHT – Jose and only need to improve a little in 3rd start

9 – RAISED – another that doesn’t need a lot of improvement in 3rd start

6 – EXTRAVAGANT – got to give the 250K 1ster a chance versus these

Rich’s Suggested Wager

$5 Exacta Key Box: 4/1,3,6,9

Terry vs. Rich

The finale produces the biggest Terry/Rich disagreement on the card.

Terry’s top selection is #3 Starship Lizzy.

Rich doesn’t put Starship Lizzy in his top four, although he does include her underneath in his Exacta Key Box.

Rich instead goes directly to Terry’s alternate:

#4 Forever to Go

Rich calls Forever to Go the only YES horse and therefore a must have.

That’s an important Smart Sheets signal, particularly because Terry considered the horse enough to include her among his alternates.

There is much stronger agreement on #1 All Bright and #9 Raised.

Terry ranks them third and second.

Rich ranks them second and third.

Those two therefore provide the strongest common ground between the two handicappers in the finale.

Terry’s Best Bet of the Day

Race 6 – #2 Secured Landing

Why Terry likes him:

Secured Landing enters off a runner-up finish against similar company, owns the early-speed style Terry wants for this setup and should benefit from shortening to one mile.

Most importantly, one mile appears to be his specialty: 7 wins from 11 starts at the distance.

Terry’s Bet:

$20 Win – #2 Secured Landing
$10 Exacta Box – 2/6
$10 Exacta – 2/3,6,7
$5 Exacta Box – 2,6,7

Terry & Rich – Strongest Agreement Horses

Race 2 – #6 Right to Win
Terry #2 / Rich #1

Race 3 – #5 Timia
Terry #1 / Rich #2
Top TOTAL PACE and SIM SP#

Race 5 – #7 Calling Mr. Mo
Terry #2 / Rich #2

Race 6 – #2 Secured Landing
Terry #1 Best Bet / Rich #2

Race 7 – #6 Allura
Terry #2 / Rich #2

Race 8 – #9 Raised
Terry #2 / Rich #3

Potential Value Horses

Race 4 – #5 Empress New Groove

Terry’s Longshot and Rich’s #2. Rich calls her the only YES horse.

Race 6 – #3 Trusty Rusty

Terry’s Longshot becomes Rich’s top pick, backed by a standout C-Zone and YES designation.

Race 7 – #2 Go for Launch

Terry’s Longshot and Rich’s third choice with the best second-race Parability.

Race 8 – #4 Forever to Go

Only an alternate for Terry but Rich’s #1, and Rich calls her the only YES horse and a must have.

Saratoga August 26 – Terry & Rich Final Board

Category	Horse	Race	Why
Terry’s Best Bet	#2 Secured Landing	6	7-for-11 at one mile, forward running style and Terry’s strongest play
Rich’s Strong Opinion	#1 More Champagne	7	Rich expects a major third-race bounce back
Consensus Play	#6 Right to Win	2	Terry #2, Rich #1, standout C-Zone
Smart Sheets Value	#5 Empress New Groove	4	Terry Longshot, Rich #2 and only YES horse
Longshot to Watch	#2 Go for Launch	7	Terry Longshot, Rich #3 with best second-race Parability
Must-Have Ticket Horse	#4 Forever to Go	8	Rich’s only YES horse despite being Terry’s alternate

Horse I’d Lean On Most

Race 6 – #2 Secured Landing

Terry has made him the Best Bet, Rich still ranks him second, his 7-for-11 record at today’s one-mile distance jumps off the page, and his forward running style should put him in the race from the start.

For Terry’s side of the card, #2 Secured Landing is the horse to beat.