Nine races at Saratoga today, but this could be one of those afternoons where the card we handicap in the morning isn’t necessarily the card we get later.

Weather could become a major factor.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected around Saratoga this afternoon, with the possibility of heavy downpours and gusty winds. That means scratches, surface changes and the way the track develops could all become part of the handicapping puzzle.

Meanwhile, Terry comes into the show looking to make it back-to-back Best Bet winners.

Smart Sheets will help Terry and Rich stay flexible as conditions develop, focusing on SIM Odds versus the Morning Line, SIM Speed and Speed Edge, Early, Late and Total Pace, projected first-call leaders, C-Zone and PAR, improvement patterns, potential overlays and vulnerable favorites, and horses that could benefit if the track or race shape changes.

This could be a day when handicapping the horses is only half the battle.

Reacting faster than the crowd to changing conditions could be the real edge.

Nine races at The Spa.

Terry goes for two straight Best Bets.

And Mother Nature may have a few selections of her own.

Let’s see if Smart Sheets can help us stay one step ahead.

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Race 1

6 Furlongs – Early Speed, 53% w2w – Inside Out

Terry’s Picks

1 – Beltandsuspenders: Finished 3rd vs similar in only start; Rail post is winning at 24% clip; High % winning trainer and jockey.

6 – Cream Puff: High % winning trainer; Well bet in debut.

4 – B My Lady: First time starter whose Sire wins 33% with 1st time Starters; Dam has 1 winner from 1 starter; Good 4F workout (Aug-15).

Longshot:

5 – Lori’s Dream: First time starter whose Dam has 2 winners from 2 starters; High % winning trainer and jockey.

Alternate:

None

Rich’s Picks

1 – BELTANDSUSPENDERS – 2nd parability

4 – B MY LADY – lowest rated 1ster but only with a BGO

5 – LORI’S DREAM – top rated 1ster

6 – CREAM PUFF – does have 2nd race parability

Race 2

6 Furlongs – Early Speed, 53% w2w – Inside Out

Terry’s Picks

3 – Wingfoot: Ran 2nd vs tougher in last race; Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 29% of the races in the 2nd race after claim; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Has a high % winning jockey.

6 – Ice House: Early speed running style helps chances so the shorter distance; Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

2 – Lough Currane: Ran 2nd vs tougher in last race; Switches to a high % jockey; Drops in class today.

Longshot:

1 – Royal Merit: Beaten only 1-3/4 lengths vs tougher in last start; Rail post is winning at 24% clip; Drops in class today.

Alternates:

4 – Bootsy’s a Rascal

5 – Bold Scholar

Terry’s Suggested Wager

$.50 Pick 4: 3,6/3,5/1,3,4,5/1,4,5,7,8,9 – Cost $48.00

Rich’s Picks

3 – WINGFOOT – most upside and only YES horse = must have +12 TLRSP

6 – ICE HOUSE – best average race – most consistent – biggest dropper +5 SIM SP#

1 – ROYAL MERIT – maybe -4 horse – better EP/Fractions – solid C ZONE

2 – LOUGH CURRANE – Jose – could be part of the EP

Rich’s Suggested Wager

$0.50 Pick 4: 1,3,6/3,5,6/1,4,5/3,7,8

Race 3

1 Mile Inner Turf – Stalkers, Strong Rail, 4-7 Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 8+ Tough

Terry’s Picks

3 – Capitol Hil: Drops in class today; Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

5 – Yinzer: Won last race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

6 – General Partner: Highest speed figure at today’s distance; Bullet 4F workout (Aug-21); Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Longshot:

2 – Pierre: Won last race at Woodbine; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Alternate:

7 – Bank Frenzy

Rich’s Picks

5 – YINZER – on the pace – better 5 ways and has a trio of works since – Top C ZONE

3 – CAPITOL HILL – tied for the biggest drop from the GI Fourstardave

6 – GENERAL PARTNER – Top TOTAL PACE – triple digit back class +9 TOP TOTAL PACE

2 – PIERRE – had a BINE invader win yesterday –

7 – BANK FRENZY (MTO) – off track 8/5-0-1 – strong C ZONE and big drop from there

Race 4

1 1/8 Miles – Stalkers, Inside Out – None from 8+

Terry’s Picks

4 – Bedard: Finished in the money in 8 races out of the last 10 starts, winning 2 races; strong trainer and jockey stats.

3 – Brazenly: Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

1 – Alternate Reality: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Rail post is winning at 29% clip; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Longshot:

5 – First Call Bob: Won last race; Highest last race speed rating.

Alternate:

6 – Sequential

Rich’s Picks

1 – ALTERNATE REALITY – on the strong rail with best SIM SP# – most upside

4 – BEDARD – biggest in race edge +13 LP – and +8 TOTAL PACE

5 – FIRST CALL BOB – other YES horse with the 1 and 5 ways better

3 – BRAZENLY – standout C ZONE – tough call over the 6

Rich’s Suggested Wager

$1 Pick 3: 1/1,3,7,8/1,2,3,6

Race 5

5 1/2 Furlongs Turf – Closers, Everything Works Except 2/3

Terry’s Picks

8 – Follow Your Heart: First time starter whose Breeding suggests she will like the grass; High % winning trainer and jockey; Bullet 4F workout (Aug-15).

7 – Fractal Goddess: First time starter whose Breeding suggests she will like the grass; High % winning trainer and jockey.

1 – Attachment: First time starter; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 19% of Debut Maiden Claiming; Has a high % jockey.

Longshot:

4 – Do Wah Diddy: First time starter whose Breeding suggests she will like the grass; strong trainer and jockey stats.

Alternates:

5 – R Kan’t Miss

9 – Hormesis

Rich’s Picks

8 – FOLLOW YOUR HEART – top Rated 1ster with BB and BGO

7 – FRACTAL GODDESS – 2nd Rated 1st back bullet

3 – BRICKYARD BELLE – 3rd Rated 1st with a back bullet

1 – ATTACHMENT – 4th Rated 1ster

Rich’s Suggested Wager

$0.50 Trifecta Box: 1,3,7,8

Race 6

1 1/16 Miles Inner Turf – Stalkers, Rail Discount, 2/3 Best, 4-7 Small Discount, 8+ Fair

Terry’s Picks

2 – Urgency: Won last race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey; Good 4F workout (Aug-20).

11 – Swaging: Ran 2nd vs similar (on Dirt) in last race; Switches to a high % winning jockey.

6 – Sharons Pharoah: Finished in the money in 2 races out of 4 career starts, winning 1 race; Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Longshot:

5 – Light Cav: Finished in the money in 2 races out of the last 3 starts, winning 1 race; Drops in class today; Switches to a high % jockey.

Alternates:

4 – Madagascar: Beaten only 1-3/4 lengths vs similar in last start; Has a high % winning trainer.

1 – Salt Spartan

9 – Paul’s Recovery

Terry’s Suggested Wager

$.50 Pick 4: 2,5,6,11/1,5,8,9/6,8/2,4,7 – Cost $48.00

Rich’s Picks

2 – URGENCY – Top TOTAL PACE – MTOs

1 – SALT SPARTAN – SIM FAV and SIM SP# without MTOs

3 – MAXIMUM PROMISE – AVG race is at the top of the range for all the Turf Horse

6 – SHARONS PHAROAH – better 5 Ways with Plenty of upside as well

Rich’s Suggested Wager

$0.50 Pick 4: 1,2,3,6/1,2,9,10/5,6/2,4,5

Rich’s MTO Replacements if Weather Comes

11 – SWAGING (MTO)

10 – MIRAGE (MTO)

9 – PAUL’S RECOVERY (MTO)

13 – REBALANCING (MTO)

Race 7

6 1/2 Furlongs – Stalkers, Posts Fair Except 8+ Discount

Terry’s Picks

5 – Pirate Ship: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey and this combo in last 14 days (7 2-1-0); Good 4F workout (Aug-21).

1 – Covered Option: Finished 3rd vs similar in only start; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

8 – Nodin: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Highest last race speed rating; Bullet 4F workout (Aug-20).

Longshot:

9 – Blackjack: Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s; Blinkers added today; Has a high % winning jockey; Bullet 4F workout (Aug-20).

Alternates:

6 – Tutto a Posto

2 – Cybertapping

Rich’s Picks

2 – CYBERTAPPING – top Rated 1ster vs all noes with BGO

10 – OGUGUA – 2nd rated 1ster with Back Bullet

1 – COVERED OPTION – Top Total Pace +7 for experienced horses – 2nd race upside

9 – BLACKJACK – has speed, has a bullet work between – 3rd race bounce back

Rich’s Suggested Wager

$0.50 Trifecta: 1,2,10/1,2,9,10/1,2,8,9,10

Race 8

5 1/2 Furlongs Turf – Closers, Everything Works Except 2/3

Terry’s Picks

6 – Titan Ready: 2nd as favorite last out; high % winning trainer wins 33% with beaten favorites; Highest last race speed rating; Has a high % winning jockey.

8 – Wood Island: Won his debut race; Breeding suggests he will like the grass as Dam has produced 1 Turf winner; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 21% of the 2YO races; Has a high % winning jockey.

5 – River of Deceit: Ran 2nd in last race; Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Has a high % winning jockey.

Longshot:

4 – Bettabe Tough: Won his debut race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Alternates:

7 – Legacy Lady

3 – Johnny Hockey

Terry’s Suggested Wager

$20.00 Win: 6

$10.00 Exacta Box: 6/8

$10.00 Exacta: 6/4,5,8

$5.00 Exacta Box: 5,6,8

Terry’s Best Bet of the Day

Race 8 – #6 Titan Ready

Rich’s Picks

5 – RIVER OF DECEIT – Yes horse with most upside in 2nd race

6 – TITAN READY – TLRSP# +8 and the other YES with the 5 – all the rest noes

8 – WOOD ISLAND – won debut as 47 cent Fav

4 – BETTABE TOUGH – another that could respond in the 2nd start off a debut win

Rich’s Suggested Wager

$4 Double: 5/2,4,5,6

Race 9

1 1/16 Miles Inner Turf – Stalkers, Rail Discount, 2/3 Best, 4-7 Small Discount, 8+ Fair

Terry’s Picks

4 – Coach Case: Ran 2nd in last race; Highest speed figure at today’s distance; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

7 – Leave Me: Won last race at Saratoga; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

2 – Final Denile: Finished 3rd in last race; Highest speed figure at today’s distance; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Longshot:

5 – Rossbeigh: Won last race; Highest speed figure at today’s distance; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Alternates:

3 – Manor Park

10 – How Much Is Enough

Rich’s Picks

2 – FINAL DENILE – Top SIM SP# and Standout C ZONE with most upside

5 – ROSSBEIGH – a YES horse at a price – I’ll take it

4 – COACH CASE – just missed in the las 2 – 3rd up for the 1st time – top angle for the tr

6 – NAGUILE – super consistent – top TOTAL PACE off a wide trip last out – 2nd up

Rich’s Suggested Wager

$5 Exacta Key Box: 2/1,4,5,6

Best Bet of the Day

Terry’s Best Bet

Race 8 – #6 Titan Ready

Titan Ready is Terry’s strongest play on the Saratoga card. He comes back after finishing second as the favorite, and his trainer wins 33% with beaten favorites. He also owns the highest last-race speed rating in the field and gets a high-percentage jockey.

Rich also has Titan Ready ranked second and identifies him as one of only two YES horses in the race, backed by a TLRSP# +8.

That gives Terry’s Best Bet support from both handicapping approaches, although Rich gives a slight edge to #5 River of Deceit.