Saratoga Full Card Tips, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
$100 Challenge – Suggested Wagers for Saratoga on a $100 Budget
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Saratoga Horse Racing Picks and Comments
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
1 – Virtual Reality – She won her debut race at Belmont Park as the favorite, has a high % winning trainer and jockey and a good 4F workout on Jul-07.
5 – Bustin Bay – She won her debut race at Belmont Park; her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and the trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (20 6-2-1).
4 – Honey Money – She finished in the money in six of her last seven races, winning one and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
Longshot:
2 – Mia Bea Star – She won her debut race at Belmont Park and has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
6 – Sabra Tuff
Bet: $1.00 DD: 1/4,5,6,7
Race 2
6 – Lady Moscato – She finished 2nd vs similar in her only start as the favorite but has a has a trainer who wins 21% of the starts when bringing beaten favorite back to race again and has a good 4F workout on July-03.
5 – Lady Blitz – She finished 5th after starting slow in her debut race and her jockey in the last 7 days has this record (36 9-6-6) and she has a good 4F workout on July-07.
4 – Soca – She is a first-time starter, her Dam has 2 winners from 2 starters and 1 stakes winner, her breeding suits today’s sprint distance and she has a good 4F workout on July-07.
Longshot:
7 – Sugar Hi – She is a first-time starter, her Dam has 1 winner from 2 starters, her Sire wins 18% of the races with 1st time Starters her breeding suits today’s sprint distance and she has a good 4F workout on July-05.
Alternate:
9 – Honey Dijon
3 – Clearly a Test
Bet: $.50 Pick 4 –2nd race #4,5,6,7– 3rd race #4,8,9,10 – 4th race #5- 5th race #2,6,9
Race 3
8 – Liana B – She won her last race at Monmouth Park; has a trainer whose horses win 20% of the claiming races and has a high % winning jockey.
4 – Smokin’ Hot Kitty – She closed to finish 2nd vs similar in her last race only losing by a nose, has a win at Saratoga and has a high % winning trainer whose horses win 37% in the 2nd after claiming a horse.
9 – Linarite – She has finished in the money in her last three races, winning the last one at Belmont Park and has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
10 – La Aguililla – She finished 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in her last race, may improve while returning to Turf, and has a high % winning trainer and jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (36 9-6-6).
Alternate:
1 – Fabulous Fanny
7 – Devilly
Bet: None
Race 4
5 – Salimah – She finished 5th in her last race at Santa Anita a G1 event, drops in class today and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Sister Otoole – She likes the turf having finished in the money in 75% of her starts and winning 19% of the races and her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
6 – Kalifornia Queen – She finished 3rd in her last race, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and a good 4F workout on July-07.
Longshot:
4 – Star Devine – She may improve at the shorter distance, has a high % winning trainer and jockey and has a 5F workout on July-07.
Alternate:
1A – Messidor
Bet: – $.50 Pick 4 – 4th race #5 – 5th race #2,6,9 – 6th race #2 – 7th #5,9,10,11
Race 5
6 – Portos – He drops in class today; has the highest last race speed rating and has a high % winning trainer whose horses win 18% of the claiming races he has a horse entered in and has a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (36 9-6-6).
2 – Dust Devil – He ran 2nd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
9 – Two Thirty Five – He drops in class today and has finished in the money in two out of three starts at Saratoga.
Longshot:
1 – Bold Victory – He has never finished out of the money at Saratoga and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Bet: – $1.00 Pick 3 – 5th race #2,6,9 – 6th race #2 – 7th #5,9,10,11
Race 6
2 – Runningwscissors – He has won two out of the last three races, has a high % winning trainer whose horses win 28% of the allowance races he has an entry in, his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters and has a high % winning jockey.
6 – Yarrow – He finished 5th in his last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 25% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again.
4 – Rough Draft – He ran 2nd in his last race, can improve at the shorter distance and has a high % winning jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (25 8-3-2).
Longshot:
7 – Phantom Smoke – He finished 3rd in his last race and has never finished out of the money at Saratoga.
Bet: – $.50 Pick 5 – 6th race #2 – 7th race #5,9,10,11 – 8th race #2,4,6,10 – 9th #7,11 – 10th race #7,10 – Bet: $10.00 Win: #2
Race 7
9 – Condiment Girl – She has won two races in a row and is going for a hat trick and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Sa Foradada – She ran 2nd in her last race, has a high % winning jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (24 7-4-5) and blinkers added today.
10 – Obrigada – She won her last race, has a trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (20 6-2-1) and has a good 4F workout on July-07.
Longshot:
11 – Need Some Money – She finished 3rd in her last race and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
2 – Carbon
3 – Miscreant
Bet: $.50 Pick 4 – 7th race #5,9,10,11 – 8th race # 2 – 9th race # 7,11 – 10th # 7,10
Race 8
2 – Born a Gambler – He won his last race at Belmont Park; he has a bullet 4F workout on July-05 and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – My Sea Cottage – He ran 2nd in his last race, has a high % winning trainer who wins 22% of the starts when bringing beaten favorite back to race again and a trainer/jockey combo who in last 14 days has this record (24 7-4-5).
6 – Unleash the Power – He drops in class today and has a high % trainer whose horses win 18% when shipping a horse in to race.
Longshot:
10 – Consultant – He has won two out of the last three races and has the highest last race speed rating.
Alternate:
1 – Thunderian
3 – Front Man
Bet: $1.00 DD: 2/1,6,7,11
Race 9
7 – Wine On Tap – She was well bet in her debut and won that race at Belmont Park and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
11 – Sugar Treat – She closed to win her last race at Gulfstream Park and has a high % winning trainer whose horses win 19% in the next race after winning their maiden race.
1 – Carmelina – She is undefeated in 2 career starts, has a high % winning trainer and jockey and has a decent 4F workout on Juyl-08.
Longshot:
6 – Closing Act – She won her debut race at PARX Racing, has a high % winning trainer and jockey and has a good 4F workout on Juyl-05.
Bet: None
Race 10
7 – Arisaema – He ran 4th in her last race beaten only 1-3/4 lengths vs tougher after being bumped several times during the race and drops in class today.
10 – Here We Go Again – He finished 3rd in her last race and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Stone of Destiny – She drops in class today, has a high % jockey who in the last 14 days has this record (7 3-0-1).
Longshot:
11 – Pimenova – He finished 3rd vs similar in her last race and her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
12 – Jannie Mae
Bet: None
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 1 1/8 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 23% w2w – PP: Rail Penalty, 2-7 Close to Fair, 8+ Big Bonus
5 – BUSTIN BAY – higher speed #s in last 2, similar fractions at 1 1/16m than 1m, two good works since last
1 – VIRTUAL REALITY – won debut with a strong push in the stretch, going longer today could help
6 – SABRA TUFF – running at lowest level, by far in career
4 – HONEY MONEY – 2nd SIM favorite, some TOGA luck 6/1-1-1 and catches a little weight break today
SUGGESTED WAGER: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,5/1,2,4,5,6/1,5,6
Race 2: 5 1/2 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 64% w2w – PP: 1 Inside 3 Fair, 4-7 a Little Above Par, 8+ No Wins
5 – LADY BLITZ – was 6/5 Favorite in Monmouth debut got off to a slow start, works suggest she should be quicker here
7 – SUGAR HI – is working at Saratoga with good works
1 – CLASSY MISCHIEF – going to take a flyer, Saratoga works are pretty good,
6 – LADY MOSCATO – well be in debut with a Z pattern for $1 million horse
SUGGESTED WAGER: $0.50 Pick 4: 1,5,6,7/1,4,8,10/1A,2,5/6
Race 3: 5 ½ Furlongs Turf – Bias: 50/50, 19% w2w – PP: 1-7 Fair, 8+ Penalty
4 – SMOKIN’ HOT KITTY – significant late move in last, pair of SPA races at the distance look good enough to get this one
1 – FABULOUS FANNY – MCL winner with TLRSP# – bullet work on June 30 suggests she likes the track
8 – LIANA B – pretty good chance to be on the lead with a strong C-Zone
10 – LA AGUILILLA – Irad and Jacobson – winners 7/15 together, huge early numbers jump in last – only 1 win in 36 race
SUGGESTED WAGER: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,4,8/1,4/1,4,6,8,10
Race 4: 1 1/16 Miles Inner Turf – Bias: Stalkers/Closer, 16% w2w – PP: Bad Rail, 2/3 Under Par, 4-7 Above Par, 8+ Big Penalty too.
5 – SALIMAH – drops from a G1 in his last back on December 26, 2 for 2 at the Distance, all or nothing 5/3-0-0
1A – MESSIDOR – has a win on Toga’s Inner Turf Course, it was in 3rd up like today.
2 – SISTER OTOOLE – has the back class and the only other than the 7 to hit 100 speed figure in the last 10
4 – STAR DEVINE – 7 point EP edge in a field where most others want to be middle back, the right fractions say ½ mile in 49-50 seconds could be tough to catch
SUGGESTED WAGER: $0.50 Trifecta: 1A,2,5/1A,5/1A,2,4,5,6
Race 5: 1 1/8 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 23% w2w – PP: Rail Penalty, 2-7 Close to Fair, 8+ Big Bonus
6 – PORTOS – drops from a G2 (almost too big of a drop) with the top last race speed figure, Strong at the Distance 8/2-2-2, all others 14/0-1-3
2 – DUST DEVIL- drops in class after running similar fractions at 1 1/16 m compared to 1m
9 – TWO THIRTY FIVE – really consistent from race to race, high floor low ceiling type with better times despite going a little longer in last
1 – BOLD VICTORY – Tery angle, take the entry that didn’t get scratched – TOGA 4/1-1-2
Raec 6: 5 ½ Furlongs Turf – Bias: 50/50, 19% w2w – PP: 1-7 Fair, 8+ Penalty
2 – RUNNINGWSCISSORS – Irad and tr David Jacobson all or nothing together winning 7/15
6 – YARROW – could be better in round two off the bench, Toga, 3/1-0-2
7 – PHANTOM SMOKE – ITM 3 of 3 at TOGA, all at today’s distance/surface, a repeat of any could be good enough
4 – ROUGH DRAFT – is a neck from being undefeated in three, improved incrementally in both races after debut
Race 7: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 32% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair, except 2/3 a Little Under Par
9 – CONDIMENT GIRL – upped her speed figure in the last three races, 3rd up and better fractions at 7f v 6
10 – OBRIGADA – winner 3 in a row, aggressively better times last out, especially early, concerned about a peak
1 – INTO HAPPINESS – TLRSP# by a about 7 points, that’s a lot, peak number off the break, regression is likely, but resume says maybe not a lot
5 – SA FORADADA – distance 2/1-0-1, 4 seconds in a row, upgrade it Irad difference maker today?
SUGGESTED WAGER: $0.50 Pick 4: 1,5,9,10/2,4,6/2,7/2,4,7,11
Race 8: 1 Mile Inner Turf – Bias: Stalkers – 21% w2w – PP: Small Rail Bonus, 2-7 Fair, 8+ Under Par
2 – BORN A GAMBLER – ran a lot faster fractions last out and followed it up with a bullet work, 3SP# increases in a row, looks like he is in top form
4 – MY SEA COTTAGE – missed by a neck at this level in last two, better early and late in last, 3rd up
6 – UNLEASH THE POWER – much better pace early in last, resume suggests he’ll be better in round three off the bench, down multiple classes
3 – FRONT MAN – room to up his game in 2nd after a layoff, maintenance work between races
Race 9: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 38% w2w -PP: Fair 1-7, 8+ Little Bonus
7 – WINE ON TAP – crushed as the favorite in her debut, decent workout since
2 – BECKY’S JOKER – first time flyer – but that July 7th work, 3f in 34.4 is really fast, has some good 5 and 6f works too, should be fit and fast
1 – CARMELINA – not a fan at all of Parx to NYRA – but I do like the comments dominated and mild urging in an easy win
11 – SUGAR TREAT – tough call over the 5, but like that he made power move in stretch to win debut and has a pair of good works since
SUGGESTED WAGER: $1 Double: 2,7/2,4,7,9,11
Race 10: 1 1/16 Miles Turf: Bias: Stalkers/Closers – 9% w2w – PP: Inside Out Bias 1-3 Bonus, 4+ Under Par
7 – ARISAEMA – MSW dropper, didn’t miss by much in last, maybe a little better in round 2 off the sidelines
4 – STONE OF DESTINY – another MSW dropper, had some in race issues in debut, 3f bullet work between – going to get off to a better start today
2 – CHARISSE – yet another moving down from MSW – tied for 2nd best Turf Pedigree
11 – PIMENOVA – best turf pedigree rank by a decent margin – chance to show more in 2nd after a layoff
