Saratoga Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free Saratoga Picks
Terry’s Picks:
Saratoga – 8-14-2025
Race 1-Female
3 – Danzit – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Absolute Honor – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 25% of the races in dirt starts, and she has a high % winning jockey.
2 – Bon Vivant – She ran 2nd in her last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 27% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again, and she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Green Jobs – She has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Raghba
1 – Stone Cold Kelly
Race 2
1 – Golden Symphony – He has won two races out of his last three starts, he has a high % winning trainer, and jockey.
2 – Tizmarkus – He has won two races out of his last four starts, drops in class today, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 29% of the claiming races with horses he trains and he has a high % winning jockey.
4 – Confabulation – He finished in the money in five races out of his eight career starts, winning two of the starts, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 25% of the races in the 2nd start after claiming a horse, and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Riyadh Moon – He finished 8th after having trouble during the race, winning two races out of his previous three starts, and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
6 – Heavyweight Champs
3 – First Trumpet
$.50 Pick 4: 1,2,4,5/2,3,4,6/1,2/2,3,6 – Cost $48.00
Race 3
2 – In the Dark – He ran 2nd in his last race, he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Hellaciousl – He ran 2nd in his last race, may improve while trying grass as his Dam has 3 winners from 4 starters and 1 Turf winner and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Our Starry Night – He has a high % winning trainer, the shorter distance can help and he has a good 4F workout on Aug-08.
Longshot:
6 – Cuando – He has the highest last race speed rating, his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
5 – Leading Role
7 – Lough Currane
Race 4
2 – Ranger Battalion – He has won his last two races in a row and now goes for a hat trick, drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Makes Sense – He finished in the money in three races out of his four career starts, winning two of the starts, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and he has a good 3F workout on Aug-09.
5 – Bear Claw Necklace – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 24% of the sprint races he has a horse running in, drops in class today and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
4 – Bob’s Carrot – He won his last race at Churchill Downs and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
6 – Aero Star
7 – Shifty Gold
$.50 Pick 4: 1,2,4,5/2,3,6,9/3,5,7/3,5 – Cost $48.00
Race 5
2 – True Connection – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, his early speed running style helps his chances so the shorter distance may help and he has a high % winning trainer.
6 – Gotta Guy – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a high % winning jockey.
3 – Dark Vector – He drops in class today, he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
9 – Burn Rubber – He won his last race at Aqueduct, and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Dark Magic
7 – Always Be Smart
Race 6
7 – Augustinian – He ran 3rd in his last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 27% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again, and he has a high % winning jockey.
5 – Schwarzenegger – He is a first-time starter whose breeding suggests he will like the grass, and he has a high % winning jockey.
3 – Throckmorton – He ran 3rd in vs similar his last race, his breeding suggests he will like the grass and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Donegal Now – He is a first-time starter whose breeding suggests he will like the grass, and he has a high % winning jockey.
Race 7
5 – George Briggs – He ran 3rd in his last race, and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Coach Case – He finished in the money in two races out of his three career starts, winning one of the starts and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – River of Time – He ran 2nd in his last race, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 36% of the races in the 2nd start with this trainer and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
7 – I’m Due – He finished in the money in five races out of his seven starts, winning two of the starts, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 26% of the Non-Graded Stake races he has a horse running in and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
8 – Moe Eighty Eight
$.50 Pick 4: 1,4,5/6,9,10/3,7,9/3,8,10 – Cost $40.50
Race 8
10 – Preposition – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 21% of the races when dropping a horse down 2+ classes, he may improve while returning to a sprint and he has a high % winning jockey.
9 – Rock Concert – He is a first-time starter whose Dam has 6 winners from 6 starters and 2 stakes winners, and he has a high % winning trainer.
6 – Levitating – He finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
2 – Seeker’s Hope – He drops in class today, he can improve while returning to dirt and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
1 – Nantz
Race 9–
7 – Steadfast Resolve – He finished in the money in five races out of his last six starts, winning two of the races, drops in class today, he has a high % winning trainer and he switches to a high % winning jockey.
3 – Enlighten – He ran 3rd in his last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 18% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again, and he has a high % winning jockey.
9 – Hedge the Risk – He won his last race at Saratoga, and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Brit’s Wilt – He ran 3rd in his last race and he can handle the distance.
Alternate:
8 – Fredo
Bet: $20.00 Win:7 – $10.00 Exacta Box: 3/7 – $10.00 Exacta Box: 3/7/9
Race 10–
10 – Deemer – He finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race at Saratoga, drops in class today, he has a high % winning and jockey and Lasix is added.
3 – Mizty Fog – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 25% of the races in a horse’s 1st race after claiming a horse and he has a high % winning jockey.
8 – Solo Dancing – He drops in class today, can improve while trying grass as his Dam has 2 winners from 3 starters and 2 Turf winners and blinkers added today.
Longshot:
1 – Wind Dancer – He has a high % winning jockey and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
Alternate:
13 – Prince of Dance
12 – Carlin Contention
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 9th Race – #7 – Steadfast Resolve
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 1 1/8 Miles – Bias: Stalkers, 27% w2w – PP: Inside Out
4 – RAGHBA – SIM FAV – biggest in race edge LP +6 –
6 – ABSOLUTE HONOR – held speed much longer last out in first route
3 – DANZIT – maybe the most upside in just the 3rd start – decently bet in both races
2 – BON VIVANT – faster in last and makes 2 starts in a row for the first time
Race 2: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 28% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2-7 Slightly Below Par, 8+ Small Bonus
4 – CONFABULATION – one of the biggest class droppers, won all day yesterday
1 – GOLDEN SYMPHONY – TLRSP#+11 – but not sure I trust AQ numbers
5 – RIYADH MOON – the other biggest dropper – some trouble in last – Top TOTAL PACE
6 – HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPS – out on the lead – better fractions in last
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,4,5/2,4,6/2,6/1,2,3,6,7
Race 3: 5 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 16% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Bonus, 4+ Discount, Inside better than Outside
2 – IN THE DARK – 2nd race improvement – 4 works between races
4 – OUR STARRY NIGHT – rerun CD debut with a touch of improvement and could be hard to beat
6 – CUANDO – TLRSP#+4 – and only YES horse – but 0-15
3 – HELLACIOUS – missed by a head in his debut – was well bet
Race 4: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 28% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2-7 Slightly Below Par, 8+ Small Bonus
2 – RANGER BATTALION – Top TOTAL PACE with the biggest in race edge 1 length – 3SP# increases and 2nd up
6 – AERO STAR – benefits from the 3 scratching – ES – 3SP# increases too – huge win in last – nice improvement on both 2nd ups
5 – BEAR CLAW NECKLACE– interesting that Irad gets off the 6 to stay on this one – biggest class drop
1 – MAKES SENSE – tough call over the 4 – but concerned he peaked last out
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,6/1,2,3,6,7/2,3,5,7/1,5
$20 Win: 2
$5 Daily Double: 2/1,2,3,6,7
Race 5: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 33% w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2/3 Discount, 4+ Bonus
3 – DARK VECTOR – SIM FAV – class dropper – could be out front – off more than a year – but the works are hot and Irad rides – if he is ready
2 – TRUE CONNECTION – classic 3rd start after a layoff – should be better than last
6 – GOTTA GUY – big pop in last – got a little better in only other 2nd up
7 – ALWAYS BE SMART – 5 ways better – the other class dropper – 2 works
1 – STILL A SOLDIER
Race 6: 5 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 16% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Bonus, 4+ Discount, Inside better than Outside
5 – SCHWARZENEGGER – 3/3 Wesley Ward horse
2 – BELGIAN – 2.97 and the best back Toga works
3 – THROCKMORTON – 2nd race improvement – speed and fade in debut – more stamina with 2 works between
7 – AUGUSTINIAN – run back to debut and turf race at GP and he is tough to beat
Race 7: 1 Mile Inner Turf – Bias: Stalkers, 25% w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Fair, 8+ Best
5 – GEORGE BRIGGS – only class dropper – TLRSP#+4 – lots of upside in the 3rd career start
1 – COACH CASE – tough start in last – better start = better result
8 – MOE EIGHTY EIGHT – better EP in his last and has the ability to close
2 – BUTTAH – the only other YES horse – tries turf for the 1st time – SIM FAV and Top TP
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,5/1,2,6,9,10/3,7,9/1,3,10
$30 Win: 5
Race 8: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 28% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2-7 Slightly Below Par, 8+ Small Bonus
1 – NANTZ – biggest class dropper – 3rd up – paid 600k for him – going to get back $40k if he wins and is claimed – odd
10 – PREPOSITION – only MAYBE horse vs noes and a shacky 1st timer – Irad and Assmussen
6 – LEVITATING – Jose Ortiz and Thomas Amoss win at 38% with plus ROI
2 – SEEKER’S HOPE – if – and big if – he gets out on the lead – will like it there
9 – ROCK CONCERT
Race 9: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Bias: Closers, 10% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2-7 Bonus, 8+ None
3 – ENLIGHTEN – leader – YES – missed by a nose in last – better 2nd up
9 – HEDGE THE RISK – Top TP – better ATB with Early Fractions
7 – STEADFAST RESOLVE – biggest class dropper – I think I talked about that already
8 – FREDO – YES horse with by far top PAR+
Race 10: 1 1/16 Miles Inner Turf – Bias: Closers. 13% w2w – PP: Rail Big Discount, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Best, 8+ Fair
10 – DEEMER – 1st Lasix and MSW
1 – WIND DANCER – TLRSP# +4 – maybe horse vs all noes
3 – MIZTY FOG – 2nd race upside w/ Irad
6 – BLUE PILL – LS with a bullet work between
