Saratoga Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Belterra Park: https://www.guaranteedtipsheet.com/in…
Saratoga Racing Racing Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
Saratoga – 8-01-2024
Race 1
1A – Bronx Bomber – He finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today and he has a high % winning jockey.
3 – Chateau – He finished 2nd in his last race, he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
4 – Critical Threat – He has won two races in a row and is now going for a hat trick and the distance will not be a problem.
Longshot:
5 – Charging Aero – He drops in class today and he can handle the distance.
Alternate:
1 – Writer’s Regret
Race 2
5 – Mums Poem – He is a first-time starter whose breeding suits today’s sprint distance and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Side Eye – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey and he has a good 4F workout on Jul-27.
9- Frostelle – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, he has a high % winning trainer and jockey and he has two bullet workouts in a row.
Longshot:
7 – Letter Perfect – He is a first-time starter whose breeding suits today’s sprint distance and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
$.50 Pick 4: #1,5,7,9/3,8,9/4,8/1,3,4,5 – Cost $48.00
Race 3-Female
8- Ichiban – She finished 3rd in her last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 23% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again, she has high % winning jockey.
3 – Peak Popularity – She won her last race at Aqueduct and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
9 – Toned Up – She ran 2nd (on Dirt) in her last race, and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Race 4
4 – Jak N Burny – He finished in the money in seven of his eight career starts, winning six of the starts and he has high % winning trainer.
8 – Caldo Candy – He won his last race at Saratoga; his early speed running style helps his chances and he has the highest last race speed rating (tie).
7 – Key Point – He finished 3rd in his last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 31% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and he has high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Pompous Prince – He has won three races out of his last four starts and the rail post is winning at a 23% clip.
Alternate:
2 – Zeebear
Race 5 -Female
5 – Dancing Liana – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, she has the highest last race speed rating and she has a high % winning jockey.
4 – Ariana Rye – She drops in class today, she has high % winning trainer who wins 25% of the races when taking a horse from a maiden to maiden claiming race and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
3 – Going for Glory – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race.
Longshot:
1 – Good Mission – She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 1 winner from 2 starters and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
9 – Mary Union Ave
Race 6
4 – Richard Ave – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and he and he has high % winning trainer Todd Pletcher and he has high % winning jockey Irad Ortiz.
3 – McDiesel – He ran 2nd vs similar in only start as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 17% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again, he has high % winning jockey.
8 – Iron Max – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey; he has the highest last race speed rating and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
9 – Vamonos Vamonos – He is a first-time starter whose Dam has 2 winners from 3 starters and he has a high % winning jockey.
Race 7
3 – On a Spree – He has won two races in a row and is now going for a hat trick and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Complete Agenda – He drops in class today, switches to a high % winning jockey and should improve while returning to dirt.
4 – Mystic Night – He ran 2nd in his last race, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has high % winning trainer who wins 23% of the races in the 1st race after claiming a horse, and he has a good 4F workout on Jul-25.
Longshot:
6 – St Andrews – He ran 2nd in his last race and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
1 – Debate
8 – Rocco Strong
$.50 Pick 4: #2,3,4,6/2,3,4,9/5/1,3,4,7,9,15 – Cost $48.00
Race 8
3 – Dr. Kraft – He finished in the money in nine out of his last ten starts, and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Shadow Dragon – He ran 2nd in his last race, he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and he has a good 4F workout on Jul-26.
9 – Cut the Cord – He won his last race at Aqueduct and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
4 – Jackson Heights – He finished in the money in three out of his last four starts, drops in class today and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
1 – Cicciobello
5 – Curlin’s Wisdom
Race 9-Female
5 – Eternal Hope – Since coming in from Europe she has won a G3 and then G2 race and she has high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – McKulick – She likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 80% of the races, winning 40% of the races, the distance will not be a problem, winning 100% of the races.
3 – Chop Chop – She finished in the money in nine out of her last ten starts, winning three starts and she has high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Atomic Blonde – She is having a good year finishing in the money in 66% of the races, winning 33% of the starts and at today’s distance finishing in the money in 100% of the races, winning 25% of the starts.
Alternate:
1 – Alpha Bella
4 – Parnac
Bet: $10.00 Win: # 5 – $1.00 Exacta Box 3/5/7
Race 10-Female
15 – Welcome Back Babe – She ran 3rd in her last race, has high % winning trainer who wins 26% when taking a horse up one class and she has high % winning jockey.
3 – Bomb Squad – She ran 5th in her last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 27% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and she has high % winning jockey.
4 – Dance On Air – She drops in class today, she has a high % winning, trainer who wins 33% of the races in the 2nd route race he has a horse competing in and has a high % jockey.
Longshot:
9 – Justheart – She drops in class today, switches to a high % jockey, trainer who wins 22% of the races in the races when taking a horse from a maiden to maiden claiming race and can improve at the longer distance.
Alternate:
1 – Miss Lao
7 – Pamplona Red
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 9th Race
5 – Eternal Hope
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 36% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2-7 Under Par, 8+ Best
3 – CHATEAU – new barn and by far the most upside in the race
4 – CRITICAL THREAT – winner of two in a row, big move forward possible in 2nd up according to PPs
1A – BRONX BOMBER – loves 2nd place at Toga – 8/0-4-0 – upside in second off the bench too
1 – WRITER’S REGRET – prefer the 1A
5 – CHARGING AERO – somebody has to be 4th of 4
Race 2: 5 ½ Furlong Turf – OFF
5 – MUMS POEM – you know Kendrick will at least push for the lead and if he gets it with decent fractions
2 – ZECA DIABO – only horse in the race to hit a par speed figure
1 – SIDE EYE – should push forward as well and chance to be a little better in the second start after a layoff
7 – LETTER PERFECT – best breeding, trainer combo but the works are blah
9 – FROSTELLE – wanted in this race on the MTO – wish granted and should show speed too
Race 3: 1 3/8 Miles Inner Turf – OFF
8 – ICHIBAN – 3rd after a layoff – best chance is to take the lead right away – should have no problem doing that
3 – PEAK POPULARITY – won bigly in a 2 horse race last out – regression coming today – off 5 months with a peak sp # – big chance to back up
9 – TONED UP – somebody has to be 3rd of 3
Race 4: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 36% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2-7 Under Par, 8+ Best
8 – CALDO CANDY – steady performer – should be close to the pace and has a major LS edge +9
7 – KEY POINT – if he is ready – has the most back class – workouts prepping are good, nothing great
3 – DAUFUSKIE ISLAND – chance for a big pop or drop in 2ds up
4 – JAK N BURNY – track riser that pushes for the lead, seen too many run well early, fade late
Race 5: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: 4 Races, Stalkers, 1/4 w2w – PP: 1 Win from the Rail, 2/3 None, 4-7 one win, 8+ two wins
5 – DANCING LIANA – Dave Portnoy’s favorite jockey – Dylan Davis – just missed at this level last out and improves enough today to get it in 2nd up
4 – ARIANA RYE – MSW dropper that’s clearly better on dirt than turf – cutting back to shortest distance of short career could be the key
9 – MARY UNION AVE – MSW drop might move her forward at the break and has some of the most LS
Race 6: 1 1/16 Miles Inner Turf – OFF –
3 – MCDIESEL – probable pacesetter and typical 2nd race improvement would be enough
8 – IRON MAX – closed well in debut after brutal start – going from 5 ½ furlong to a mile helps
1A – REVIVALISM – July 13th toga work of 4f in 47.3 – BG suggests some talent in this guy
12 – REAL SAVVY – solid steady works for a 350k first timer for Clement – who I believe prefers turf
Race 7: 1 3/16 Miles – Bias: No Data
3 – ON A SPREE – CD shipper been off since May, decent work prepping and a positive ROI with IRAD and Maker – hard to get a positive ROI with Irad
4 – MYSTIC NIGHT – plenty of Saratoga class and couple of nice works between races after better early pace #s
2 – COMPLETE AGENDA – 2nd the last time he ran at this level – has triple digit SP# ability
7 – BAR FOURTEEN – lone E sitting out there – big chance he is on the lead
Race 8: 1 Mile – Bias: Stalker, 17% w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Best, 8+ None
3 – DR. KRAFT – should get an ideal trip – nearly perfect match to track bias and Irad
9 – CUT THE CORD – win and place at TOGA – win was at 1 mile and biggest win of career
2 – SHADOW DRAGON – right distance for an ITM finish 6/0-4-1 –
1 – CICCIOBELLO – chance for a major bump higher in the round 2 off the bench
Race 9: 1 ½ Miles Inner Turf – Bias: 2 Races – both won by Co-Pilot Types from 2-7
7 – MCKULICK – two for two at the distance and won the last time she caught softer footing
5 – ETERNAL HOPE – with the track being only good – should be the one to beat
2 – ROYALTY INTEREST – tends to do her best work off the bench and has some sharp works prepping
6 – ATOMIC BLONDE – has brilliant late pace at times
Race 10: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – OFF – 1 Mile – Bias: Stalker, 17% w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Best, 8+ None
7 – PAMPLONA RED – Pure MSW dropper with early speed
1 – MISS LAO – just needs to run back a couple of races to be the winner
15 – WELCOME BACK BABE – outside post hurts, Irad helps – 3rd at this level last out
4 – DANCE ON AIR – another Pure MSW dropper for Chad Brown
