Saratoga Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Saratoga Racing Racing Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
Saratoga – 8-15-2024
Race 1
3 – Man of Mischief – He ran 2nd vs similar in his only start and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Manhattan Twist – He is a first-time starter whose Dam has 6 winners from 8 starters and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
9 – Keepinitreal – He is a first-time starter whose Dam has 1 winner from 1 starter and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Ozzy – He is a first-time starter and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Race 2
3 – Rithm Nic – He won his last race at Saratoga and he has high % winning trainer who wins 22% of the races in the 1st race after claiming a horse.
2X – High Front – He ran 7th in his last race as the favorite but has a trainer who wins 27% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again, drops in class today and he has a high % winning jockey.
7 – Chess Master – He has won two races out of the last four starts, drops in class today, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and he has high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Three Zero – He has finished in the money in nine out of his last ten starts, winning one of the starts and and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
$.50 Pick 4: #2X,3,5,7,10/1A,/2,5,6,7/1,3,6,7,8 – Cost $50.00
Alternate:
1 – Scuttlebuzz
Race 3
1A – Upstanding – He finished 3rd vs similar in his only start and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Prairie Dunes – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Cuando – He finished 3rd vs similar (on Turf) in his last race, the rail post is winning at a 20% clip, returning to dirt should help and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Ignite the Light – He ran 5th in his last race as the favorite but has a trainer who wins 25% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again, and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
1 – Pentathlon
5 – Bourbon’s Fault
Race 4
5 – Ministerial – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 39% of the claiming races he has a horse competing in, can improve at the shorter distance and he has a high % winning jockey.
2 – Classic Mark – He has won one race out of two starts at today’s distance at Saratoga and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Allaboutthemoney – He finished 2nd vs similar in his only start, he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and he has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
7 – He’s Got This – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 34% of the races when taking a horse down 2+ classes and his best dirt speed is close to the Avg Winning Speed.
Alternate:
4 – Winter’s Ghost
Race 5
8 – Very Stormy – He finished 2nd vs similar in his last start and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Concorde Spirit – He finished 3rd in his only start and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Call Bob – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, he has the highest last race speed rating and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
1 – Sorority Prank – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and the rail post is winning at a 25% clip.
Alternate:
3 – He Has It All
4 – Romantic Charmer
Race 6-Female
9 – Dr Glick – She is a first-time starter whose breeding suggests she will like the grass and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
10 – Wonderland – She is a first-time starter whose breeding suggests she will like the grass and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Never Really Know – She has a high % winning trainer and jockey and she has the highest last race speed rating.
Longshot:
1 – Trading Secrets – Her Dam has 2 winners from 4 starters, should improve at the longer distance and she has a bullet 4F workout on Aug-05.
Alternate:
8 – Laughing Lady
5 – She’s Got Will
Race 7
3 – Instamatic – He has won two races in a row and is now going for a hat trick and he likes the turf finishing in the money in 80% of the races, winning 40% of the starts.
2 – Fidelightcayut – He finished 3rd in his last race and he has high % winning jockey.
4 – Courtly Banker – He ran 2nd in his last race, his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Russian Realm – He ran 2nd in his last race, he switches to a high % winning jockey and he has a good 4F workout on Aug-05.
Alternate:
8 – Elysian Meadows
$.50 Pick 4: #2,3,4,6,8/3/5,6,7,8,10,11/4,6,9,10 – Cost $50.00
Race 8
3 – Cooke Creek – He has won two races in a row and is now going for a hat trick and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Tabeguache – He finished 3rd in his last race and he has a good 4F workout on Aug-10.
1 – Olympic Dreams – He drops in class today, may improve while returning to dirt and he switches to a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
4 – Nimitz Class – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 20% of the races when bringing a horse back from a 90+ days break and his early speed running style helps chances.
Race 9
6 – Kid Kreesa – He finished 2nd in his last race only losing by a nose and he has a high % winning jockey.
5 – Amplitude – He is a first-time starter and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – New York Scrappy – He has high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
8 – Charles J – He has high % winning trainer who wins 37% of the maiden Sp Wt races that he has a horse running in and he has a has high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
10 – Tinebar
11 – Wind Dancer
Race 10-Female
4 – Strictly Taboo – She has won two races in a row and is now going for a hat trick and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
10 – Risk Threshold – She won her last race at Aqueduct and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Heaven Rules– She has finished in the money in four career starts, winning one of the starts and she has high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
9 – Riley Jean – She has finished in the money in the last three starts winning two races and she has high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
5 – Leslie’s Humor
Bet: $6.00 Win: # 4 – $2.00 Exacta: 4/6,9,10 – Trifecta Key: 4 with 1,5,6,9,10
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 10th Race
4 – Strictly Taboo
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 4/12 w2w – PP: Inside 3 Stink, 4-7 Best, 8+ Bonus
3 – MAN OF MISCHIEF – will show NGSTK/GIII ability with upper end 2nd race improvement
9 – KEEPINITREAL – July 14th back bullet at Toga – 4f in 47.2 shows talent
5 – MANHATTAN TWIST – puts a check mark in all the categories, trainer, breeding and works
6 – ROCK STAR REBEL – jockey Dylan Davis seems hit a longshot a day – why not in a 2 yo race
Race 2: 5 ½ Furlongs Turf – Bias: Stalkers, 23% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2-7 Below Par, 8+ Best
3 – RITHM NIC – very consistent performer – much faster early in last
7 – CHESS MASTER – lowest level in last 10 and no stranger to the winners’ circle at the distance
5 – THREE ZERO – much better early pace and fractions in last, a pair of maintenance works for stamina
2X – HIGH FRONT – three horses in the entry – one has to do something
Race 3: 1 Mile – Bias: Stalkers, 29% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ None
1A – UPSTANDING – probably going to be 1/9 odds
4 – PRAIRIE DUNES – aside from the 1A – has come the closet to running a par level race
5 – BOURBON’S FAULT – the July 27th work of 5f at Toga hints he might like the track
7 – FATTOUSH – July 27th work of 4f in 47.3 says maybe
Race 4: 1 Mile – Bias: Stalkers, 29% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ None
2 – CLASSIC MARK – Lone PC – speed numbers improving and third up – maybe peak race today?
6 – ALLABOUTTHEMONEY – more than a length LS edge, better ATB and more coming in 2nd up
5 – MINISTERIAL – some of his best works prepping – the start will be everything – needs to be forward – should be there with this group
4 – WINTER’S GHOST – most consistent performer – lone SPA work suggests he might take to the course
Race 5: 6 Furlongs – Early Speed, 36% w2w – PP: Big Rail Bonus, 2-7 Under Par, 8+ Best
7 – CALL BOB – only horse in the race with a passing PAR race on the resume – 1 of 2 four YOs
6 – CONCORDE SPIRIT – upper end 2nd race improvement put him right there
3 – HE HAS IT ALL – has some speed as the SIM FAV
2 – MIDNIGHT LEGEND – first timer and gets this spot because none of the rest have shown the ability to hit at this level despite multiple chances
Race 6: 1 1/16 Miles Inner Turf – Bias: Closers, 3/19 w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Hammered, 4-7 Fair, 8+ Bonus but not as good as the rail
9 – DR GLICK – Chad Brown 1st timer with a strong back bullet
10 – WONDERLAND – same score as the 9 – better breeding
5 – SHE’S GOT WILL – strong breeding, solid works
2 – NEVER REALLY KNOW – any second race improvement puts him deep into par territory
Race 7: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Bias: Closers, 1/15 w2w – PP: Outside In Bias, Inside 3 Under Par
8 – ELYSIAN MEADOWS – any of his last two were good enough and showed elite late speed in his last.
2 – FIDELIGHTCAYUT – showed much better early speed in last and won his only race at the distance with ease.
6 – RUSSIAN REALM – maybe the most upside with only three races to date.
4 – COURTLY BANKER – has not won yet but has not missed the board in four starts either.
3 – INSTAMATIC
Race 8: 1 1/8 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 40% w2w – PPs don’t Much Matter in a 4 Horse Field
3 – COOKE CREEK – sits right off the pace and runs by them in the end with elite LS
4 – NIMITZ CLASS – tries to set the pace and go w2w – a bunch of bullet works at Toga
1 – OLYMPIC DREAMS – drops from a Grade II – proper distance 8/4-0-1, just 2 wins in 9 at any other
5 – TABEGUACHE – somebody has to be 4 of 4 – could win too if he steals an easy lead – Franco/Cox combo won 5/12
Race 9: 1 1/16 Miles Inner Turf – Bias: Closers, 3/19 w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Hammered, 4-7 Fair, 8+ Bonus but not as good as the rail
2 – CAESAR’S GHOST – longshot that popped up the speed ladder, cut back in distance helps
5 – AMPLITUDE – first timer versus a bunch that mostly have sniffed par for this level
8 – CHARLES J – top total pace +8 and his best efforts were debut and only other 1st up , like today, first time Lasix could be a difference maker down the stretch
4 – FERRIS MULER – another bomb, only made one other 2nd up start – ginormous improvement – a speat and he could surprise
Race 10: 5 ½ Furlongs Turf – Bias: Stalkers, 23% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2-7 Below Par, 8+ Best
9 – RILEY JEAN – just missed at this level last out
4 – STRICTLY TABOO – lone C versus everybody else that wants to be forward
6 – HEAVEN RULES – not a fan of the PID track riser, but Jose rides and AW record says she might like grass
1 – DAUGHTER OF TIME – always close at the end and makes the third start off the layoff for the first time
