Saratoga Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Saratoga Racing Racing Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
Saratoga – 8-07-2024
Race 2-Female
8 – Will Not Be Swayed – She ran 2nd vs similar in her only start, she has the highest last race speed rating and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
7 – Tiz Purple – She ran 2nd vs similar in her only start; she has high % winning trainer who wins 27% of the 2YO races that he has an entry in, and she has high % winning jockey and she has a good 4F workout on Jul-28.
2 – Thankfully – She ran 2nd vs similar in her only start and she has high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
4 – Gerlin’s Empire – She ran 2nd in her last race and she has high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
5- Not Too Late
6 – Royal Princess
Race 3
4 – Rider’s Special – He ran 2nd in his last race, he has high % winning trainer whose horses wins 24% of the starts in the 2nd race after claiming a horse and he has high % winning jockey.
1 – Own the Field – He finished 3rd in his last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 21% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again, and he has high % winning jockey.
2 – Master of Arms – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Dillinger – He won his last race at Saratoga by eight lengths and he has a high % winning trainer who wins 25% of the dirt starts she has an entry in a race and high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
8 – Mr. Papagiorgio
$.50 Pick 4: #1,2,3,4/9,10/3,4,6,8/1,2,8 – Cost $48.00
Race 4
10 – Classic Legacy – He ran 2nd vs similar (on Dirt) in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
9 – Fromanothamutha – He won his last race at Aqueduct and he has high % winning jockey.
2 – Victors Valiant – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Abadin – He ran 3rd vs similar in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Race 5 -Female
4 – L Street Lady – She finished 3rd (on Dirt) in her last race and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
8 – Everyoneloveslinda – She drops in class today and she has a high % winning trainer.
3 – Lady Milagro – She ran 2nd (on Dirt) in her last race and has a bullet 3F workout on Aug-02.
Longshot:
6 – Speedy Traveler – She has won three starts out of four career races, drops in class today and can improve at the shorter distance.
Race 6-Female
2 – Rainingatthebeach – She won her last race at Saratoga; she has the highest last race speed rating and she has a high % winning jockey.
1 – Moonlit Weekend – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, the rail post is winning at a 30% clip, she has a trainer who wins 20% of the claiming races that he has an entry in and she has a high % winning jockey.
8 – Grammy Girl– She has a high % winning trainer who wins 25% of the races when taking a horse down 2+ classes and has a high % winning jockey and she has a good 4F workout on Jul-28.
Longshot:
10 – Backstretch Rose – She should improve while returning to dirt, drops in class today she has a high % winning trainer who wins 37% of the races when taking a horse down 2+ classes and she has a bullet 4F workout on Aug-01.
Alternate:
4 – La Vita Sofia
7 – Bump in the Night
$.50 Pick 4: #1,2,4,7,8,10/3,8,10,11/2,3/6,11 – Cost $48.00
Race 7
3 – On the Ledge – He won his last race at Aqueduct; his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has high % winning jockey.
11 – Neuschwanstein – He finished 3rd in his last race, switches to a high % winning jockey and he has a good 4F workout on july-27.
8 – Unclecharliesgift – He finished in the money in the last three starts, finishing 3rd vs similar in last race and he has high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
10 – Giant’s Fire – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and he has a good 4F workout on Aug-02.
Alternate:
7 – Aaraj
9 – Xcellent Men
Bet: $14.00 Win: # 3 – $5.00 Exacta 3/8,11
Race 8-Female
2 – Sterling Silver – She drops in class today; her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has high % winning trainer who wins 22% of the races when taking a horse from a sprint-sprint-route and she has high % winning jockey.
3 – Smokin’ Hot Kitty – She has won four starts out of the last five races, including the last race at Saratoga and she has high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Bustin Bay- She has finished in the money in five out of her last six starts, winning two of the starts and she has high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
4 – Maggy’s Palace – She won her last race at Aqueduct, she has high % winning jockey.
Race 9
11 – Bearings – He ran 3rd in his last race, and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Riverwalk – He drops in class today; he has a high % winning trainer he has high % winning jockey and a bullet 4F workout on Jul-28.
5 – Bounteous – He drops in class today and he has high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
3 – El Alacran – His best turf speed is close to the Avg Winning Speed, he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 7th Race
3 – On the Ledge
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 2 3/8 Miles Turf Jumpers – Cancelled
1 – HOLD HARD
2 – ZARAK THE BRAVE
8 – HIDDEN PATH
5 – TUDDENHAM GREEN
Race 2: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 31% w2w – PP: Rail Big Bonus, 2-7 Under Par, 8+ Best
8 – WILL NOT BE SWAYED – question is the Toga or Monmouth horse the one to back? I’ll go Toga
7 – TIZ PURPLE – if not, then I’ll also take the Monmouth horse – who improves the most wins
6 – ROYAL PRINCESS – 2.7 first timer – horse is working well and tr Brittany Russell hit 22% DMSW
2 – THANKFULLY – tough call over the 4 – but she debuted in the mud and ran well
Race 3: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 44% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Penaly, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Worst
3 – DILLINGER – Left arrow horse – absolutely obliterated the comp in his last, maintenance work since
1 – OWN THE FIELD – resume says it is reasonable to expect his best in the third up – better ATB
4 – RIDER’S SPECIAL – Q30 horse – question is does he get the lead, if so – w2w candidate
2 – MASTER OF ARMS – this is the likely pacesetter, high Q score and very consistent performer
Race 4: 1 Mile Inner Turf – OFF – 1 Mile Dirt – – Bias: Stalker, 35% w2w – PP: Rail Big Bonus, 2-7 Fair, 8+ None
10 – CLASSIC LEGACY – could be contentious pace, should favor late legs, 1 length LS advantage
2 – VICTORS VALIANT – will definitely be coming at the end and ran some quicker fractions last out
3 – ABADIN – frontrunner that improved his early pace through the first half mile in last
9 – FROMANOTHAMUTHA – good work between race, 50/50 on 2nd up improvement
Race 5: 5 ½ Furlongs Turf – OFF
6 – SPEEDY TRAVELER – possible pacesetter with the highest Q score – unbeaten in two on an off track
5 – UNSUNG MELODY – upped speed figure in last three with TLRSP# +7
3 – LADY MILAGRO – most likely to get to the front with a high Q score
8 – EVERYONELOVESLINDA – Linda Rice wanted in on the main track, off track 3/2-1
Race 6: 1 Mile – Bias: Stalker, 35% w2w – PP: Rail Big Bonus, 2-7 Fair, 8+ None
2 – RAININGATTHEBEACH – most upside potential in the race making just her 4th start with TLRSP#
10 – BACKSTRETCH ROSE – sizable class drop, but like the TOGA bullet work on Aug 1 – lights on
4 – LA VITA SOFIA – class dropper that just missed the last time in the mud and 2 of the 3 horse that finished in front of her came back to win
1 – MOONLIT WEEKEND – tough call over the 8, but will go with the big rail bonus and just missed at this level last out
Race 7: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 31% w2w – PP: Rail Big Bonus, 2-7 Under Par, 8+ Best
3 – ON THE LEDGE – Top TOTAL PACE +5, rerun last race and wins again, but regression possible in 2nd start after more than a year off
8 – UNCLECHARLIESGIFT –3 sp# increases in a row and huge jump in only other 2nd up – like today
5 – ROYAL KING – class dropper that is one of the few with a PAR race, off track 2/1-1-0, everything else, 9/1-0-0 what does that tell you?
11 – NEUSCHWANSTEIN – lowest level of his career, upgrades to Irad today
Race 8: 1 Mile – Bias: Stalker, 35% w2w – PP: Rail Big Bonus, 2-7 Fair, 8+ None
2 – STERLING SILVER -drops from a Grade II and resume says third up should be the best of the cycle
3 – SMOKIN’ HOT KITTY – best chance to go wire to wire and is unbeaten in three at the distance
1 – SUNSET LOUISE – won four of six on and off track and has just one win in eight on another
5 – BUSTIN BAY – should be fit in her third start after a layoff for jockey Irad Ortiz
Race 9: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – OFF – 1 Mile – Bias: Stalker, 35% w2w – PP: Rail Big Bonus, 2-7 Fair, 8+ None
6 – RIVERWALK – class dropper with consecutive bullet works between starts, by far his best published works
11 – BEARINGS – first off the claim for tr Rob Atras, expecting him to send
10 – FIRE BARON – is always close at the end, fills in the tri or super today too at a price
12 – TRUE CONNECTION – Dylan Davis’ win for today? Off track 3/0-1-1, off the board in 3 on fast
