Saratoga Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free Saratoga Picks
Terry’s Picks:
Saratoga – 7-16-2025
Race 1
8 – China Beach – He is going for his 4th win in a row, drops in class today, and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
9 – Blue Creek – He has finished in the money in his last five starts, running 2nd in his last race, and he has a high % winning jockey.
1 – Evie’s Prince – He finished 2nd in his last start at Saratoga, and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
Longshot:
2 – Beat Le Bon – He finished 2nd in his only start at Saratoga, his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie), and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Sultan Pierji
6 – Quick Master
Race 2
6 – Beer Run – He has finished in the money in his last four starts, running 3rd vs similar in last race, his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Dontworryboutnothn – He ran 4th vs similar in his last race after having trouble at the start of the race and during the race, his Dam has 2 winners from 3 starters (but 0 Turf winners) and he has a high % winning trainer.
2 – Maki Monarchy – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Snare – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and, and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
5 – Irrelevant
Race 3
3 – Aero Star – He has finished in the money in four out of five career starts winning one start and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Three B’s – He has finished in the money in two out of his last three starts winning one start and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Miles and Miles – He ran 2nd in his last race, the shorter distance may help and he has a good 4F workout on Jul-06.
Longshot:
4 – Smilensaycheese – He has won one race out of three starts at Saratoga, and he has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
5 – Just Clarity
6 – Tapwrits Temper
$.50 Pick 4: 1,2,3,4/4,5/2,3,5,6/1,8,10 – Cost $48.00
Race 4
4 – Kaz Oil Changer – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Iron Dome – He ran 3rd vs similar in his last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 22% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again, and he has a high % winning jockey.
2 – Undisputed – He has a high % winning jockey, he can improve while returning to a route and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
7 – Solo Dancing – He finished 3rd vs similar in his only race and he can go the distance.
Alternate:
8 – Shakeitforthebird
Race 5
2 – Illmatic – He is a first-time starter whose breeding suggests he will like the grass and today’s sprint distance, and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Super Dave – He is a first-time starter whose breeding suggests he will like the grass and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Tim and Sam – He is a first-time starter whose breeding suggests he will like the grass and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Three Thirteen – He is a first-time starter whose breeding suggests he will like the grass.
Alternate:
11 – Spirit of New York
7 – Wamo
Race 6-Female
10 – Silent Melody – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race and she switches to a high % winning jockey and she has a high % winning trainer.
8 – Sassy Princess – She drops in class today and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Temple City Taboo – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
3 – Starlight Dancer – She won her last race at Aqueduct and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
5 – Higher Force
$.50 Pick 4: 1,3,8,10/2,3/5,7,8/2,3,9,10 – Cost $48.00
Race 7
3 – Mainstream – He has finished in the money in all three career starts, running 2nd vs similar in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Tap Into This – He has finished in the money in all five career starts, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 24% of the races when taking a horse from a route to a sprint and he has a high % winning jockey.
1 – Duration – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race only missing by a head, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and he has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
4 – Barb – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 23% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again, and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
6 – Private Flight
Bet: $40.00 Win: 3 – $10.00 Exacta: 3/1,2,4 – $5.00 Exacta Box:1,2,3
Race 8
5 – Alternate Reality – He has finished in the money in his last eight starts, running 3rd vs similar in last race, drops in class today, he has a high % winning trainer and he has the highest last race speed rating.
7 – Chelonian – He has won his last two races in a row and now goes for a hat trick, and he has a high % winning jockey.
8 – Gilmore – He ran 2nd in his last race, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Double Your Money – He has finished in the money in his last ten starts, winning the last start at PARX Racing, and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
2 – Sagamore Mischief
4 – Systemic Change
Race 9-Female
2 – Mommy’s Turn – She ran 2nd vs similar after being bumped in the stretch in her last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 23% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again, and she has a high % winning jockey.
3 – Trail of Gold – She won her last race at Aqueduct and she has a high % winning jockey.
9 – Disco Star – She 2nd in her only start at Saratoga, she has the best turf speed among today’s starters and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
10 – Carmen’s Candy Jar – She won her last race at Saratoga and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
8 – She’s Our Tiz
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 7th Race – #3 – Mainstream
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 2 3/8 Miles Turf
6 – QUICK MASTER
2 – BEAT LE BON
8 – CHINA BEACH
5 – KITTEN AROUND
Race 2: 5 ½ Furlongs Turf – Bais: 7 Races 4 w2w – PP: None from Rail, 2/3 Best, 4+ Same Discount
5 – IRRELEVANT – first time starter – fast 4f work – 46.3 – can he run on turf and 3 yo vs older
7 – DONTWORRYBOUTNOTHN – heavy fav in Keeneland debut – most upside potential in the race but wonder why Irad is on the 2 and not riding here again?
6 – BEER RUN – want to rank higher – but too many chances to win already and hasn’t
8 – CUANDO – ran much, much faster in his last, but like the 6 – lots of races – no Wins
Race 3: 6 Furlongs – Bais: 5 Races, Early Speed, 2 w2w – PP: Outside In – None from Rail
3 – AERO STAR – TLRSP#+7 and Top TOTAL PACE and Better ATB
2 – THREE B’S – solid, consistent performer – decent works prepping
4 – SMILENSAYCHEESE – by far the top C ZONE – should be forward – 2nd up
1 – MILES AND MILES – Brad Cox winner 13/26 drop off the claim – money loser if claimed and wins – why?
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,3,4/2,5,8/3,7,8,10,11/1,8
$12 Win: 3
Race 4: 1 1/8 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 1/5 w2w – PP: None from Rail, 2/3 Best, 4-7 Discount, None from 8+
2 – UNDISPUTED – better EP in last and maintenance work since
8 – SHAKEITFORTHEBIRD – on the lead – top C ZONE – dangerous in 2nd up
5 – IRON DOME – Z Pattern – closer, getting incrementally better
4 – KAZ OIL CHANGER – maybe most upside in just the second career start
Race 5: 5 ½ Furlongs Turf – Bais: 7 Races 4 w2w – PP: None from Rail, 2/3 Best, 4+ Same Discount
11 – SPIRIT OF NEW YORK – taking top ranked 1st timers in order
10 – CRISTOBAL
8 – DILIELLO
3 – SUPER DAVE – only out of order horse – but can’t overlook Wesley Ward
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 3,8,10,11
Race 6: 1 1/16 Miles Inner Turf – Bias: 4 Races, 2 w2w – PP: 1 from 2/3 and 4-7, a Pair from 8+
1 – TEMPLE CITY TABOO – run back to her June 6th race today’s distance and track and it’s a wrap – SIM FAV and top C ZONE
8 – SASSY PRINCESS – fairly solid off the bench – consistent performer – 3 works
10 – SILENT MELODY – Flavien on a horse that should close and be better in 2nd up
7 – SAILAWAY – could be Lone E and is Top TOTAL PACE – shaky comp though
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,8,10/1,6/2,4,5,8/2,5,7,10
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 1,7,8,10
Race 7: 7 Furlongs – Bias: 2 Races – 1 speed and 1 closer – 1 Winner 2/3 and 4-7
1 – DURATION – Strong SIM FAV – Lone YES Horse and Strong LP +6
6 – PRIVATE FLIGHT – 2nd race improvement with a bullet work between races
3 – MAINSTREAM – Pacesetter and Top TOTAL PACE – head a neck from winning last 2
2 – TAP INTO THIS – most consistent in the race – better in 2nd up with Prat
$5 Exacta Key Box: 6/ALL
Race 8: 1 1/8 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 1/5 w2w – PP: None from Rail, 2/3 Best, 4-7 Discount, None from 8+
8 – GILMORE – better early in last – been really solid in last 4 races
5 – ALTERNATE REALITY – YES horse – hit 100 on Speed Gun in last Toga Start – maybe some regression here
2 – SAGAMORE MISCHIEF – better early in last – Ricardo Santana and Tr Gustavo Rodriguez ITM 5/5 winning 2 – ROI of +$8 – Top TOTAL PACE and Top C ZONE
4 – SYSTEMIC CHANGE – can really pick any of the rest – might as well take Irad on a horse that’s faced better than the rest
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 2,4,5,8
Race 9: 1 1/16 Miles Inner Turf – Bias: 4 Races, 2 w2w – PP: 1 from 2/3 and 4-7, a Pair from 8+
2 – MOMMY’S TURN – excuses in last – 3 works since – will be better today for C Brown
5 – CHARLOTTE’S HEART – 3rd after a layoff for the first time – boom or must coming
7 – MARVELOUS MADISON – won debut at TOGA and faced better in next two
10 – CARMEN’S CANDY JAR – absolutely crushed it last out – only question is 1st turf
$12 Win: 2
