Saratoga Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free Saratoga Picks
Terry’s Picks:
Saratoga – 7-30-2025
Race 1
5 – Hidden Path – He has finished in the money in five races out of the last six starts, and he has a high % winning trainer.
6 – St. John’s – He has finished in the money in seven races out of the last nine starts, winning two of the races and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Memento – He won his last race, and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Holey Moley – He won his last race at Laurel.
Alternate:
2 – Brie’s Mission
3 – Awesome Strike
Race 2-Female
4 – Embraceable Gal – She ran 2nd in her last race and she has a high % winning trainer who wins 21% of the races when taking a horse from a sprint-route-sprint and she has a high % winning jockey.
2 – Mitole’s Girl – She has won two races out of four career starts, and she has a trainer who wins 19% of the sprints she has horses running in and she has a high % winning jockey.
3 – True Empress – She won her last her race and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Racing Colors – She hit the gate and finished 4th in her last race, and she has a 3rd race finish at Saratoga and can go the distance.
Race 3-Female
4 – Stirred Up – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 25% of the maiden claiming races she has horses running in and she has a high % winning jockey.
3 – Chocolatechocolate – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, can improve at the shorter distance, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a high % winning jockey.
6 – Sunset Sizzle – She switches to a high % winning jockey and he has the highest last race speed rating.
Longshot:
2 – Laughing Lady – She has a high % winning trainer, returning to dirt can be a plus and she drops in class today.
Alternate:
1 – Contract Law
$.50 Pick 4: 2,3,4,6/6/1,2,3,4,6,7/1,4,9,10 – Cost $48.00
Race 4
6 – Corruption – He has won four races out of his last six starts, drops in class today has a high % winning trainer, and switches to a high % winning jockey.
1 – Otello – He ran 2nd (on Dirt) in last his race, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 27% of the allowance races he has a horse running in and he has a high % winning jockey.
3 – Bourbon Day – He ran 3rd out of two starts at Saratoga, and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
2 – Fuerteventura – He finished 3rd in his last race, and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Summer Cause
Race 5
7 – Discotheque – He tried turf in his last race without success and now returns to dirt where he has finished in the money in his last six starts and drops in class today.
6 – Fiddling Felix – He ran 2nd in his last race, he has the highest last race speed rating and he has a high % winning jockey.
2 – Noguchi – He drops in class today, and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Career Risk – He is a first-time starter, the rail post is winning at 23% clip and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
3 – V Cruizer
4 – Fleeting Free
Race 6-Female
9 – Street Sue – She finished 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in her last race, he can improve while trying grass, she has a high % winning trainer and a good 4F workout on Jul-20.
10 – Sharp Mindset – She is a first-time starter and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Snow Face Princess – She finished 4th in her last race in the mud, her Dam has 1 winner from 2 starters and 1 Turf winner, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and this combo in the last 14 days has this record (9 3-2-1).
Longshot:
1 – Santina – She is a first-time starter whose breeding suits today’s sprint distance and she has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
2 – Mackinac
3 – Blanchett
$.50 Pick 4: 1,4,9,10/1,7/2,8/1A,2,4,5,7,8 – Cost $48.00
Race 7
7 – War Officer – He has finished in the money in his last five starts, winning two races and running 2nd vs similar in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Brigade Commander – He won his last race at Saratoga, he has a high % winning jockey and he has a good 4F workout on Jul-20.
6 – Cognoscenti – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 60% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again, and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
5 – The Paddock Pastor – He has finished in the money in three races out of the last four starts, he has the best turf speed among today’s starters and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
2 – Salted Carmel
3 – Outtawaterbury
Race 8-Female
2 – Dolomite – She is going for her 4th win in a row and she a high % winning trainer and jockey and a good 4F workout on Jul-24.
8 – Sterling Silver – She ran 2nd in his last race, she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
7 – Hey Olivia – She drops in class today and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
5 – My Mane Squeeze – She drops in class today, she ran 2nd in her last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 22% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again, she has a high % winning jockey and she has a good 5F workout on Jul-21.
Alternate:
4 – Caldwell Luvs Gold
Bet: $40.00 Win: 2 – $10.00 Exacta Box: 2/8 – $10.00 Exacta:2/4,5,7,8
Race 9-Female
8 – Good Mission – She finished 3rd vs similar in last race, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 19% of the races in sprints, and she has a high % winning jockey.
2 – Kyla’s Kause – She ran 2nd in her last race, her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters, she has a high % winning jockey, Lasix is added and she has a 4F workout on Jul-19.
4 – Froghollowsummer – She 2nd in vs similar her last start at Saratoga, and she has a bullet 3F workout on Jul-24.
Longshot:
5 – Fifi La Fume – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race and she has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
7 – Miss Uproar
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 8th Race – #2 – Dolomite
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 2 3/8 Miles Turf
6 – ST. JOHN’S
5 – HIDDEN PATH
7 – MEMENTO
2 – BRIE’S MISSION
Race 2: 7 Furlongs – Bias: 11 Races, Early Speed, 3/11 w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Penalty, 8+ Bonus
2 – MITOLE’S GIRL – on the lead, most untapped upside potential in only 5th race – only other 2nd up – major pop
3 – TRUE EMPRESS – TLRSP#+6 – does tend to pair strong outing
4 – EMBRACEABLE GAL – very consistent – but low ceiling high floor type – SIM FAV
6 – RACING COLORS – somebody has to be 4th of 4 – will be closing
Race 3: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 27% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Best, 4-7 Penalty, 8+ Bonus
3 – CHOCOLATECHOCOLATE – better EP in last – only other 2nd up major SP# rise – a little shorter race helps
4 – STIRRED UP – ITM 5/6 races – better EP in last – decent work and cuts back in distance
2 – LAUGHING LADY – SIM FAV and could be the pacesetter –
6 – SUNSET SIZZLE – TLRSP#+ 3 – 2nd race parability, huge LS edge 4 lengths, 2 lengths TOTAL PACE – track riser
Race 4: 1 3/8 Miles Inner Turf – PP: 4 Races, Closers, 0 w2w – PP: Outside In
3 – BOURBON DAY – TLRSP#+ 7 and Top PAR+ Horse – better EP and Fractions – 3rd up
6 – CORRUPTION – Big ML FAV – winner 4/8 on turf – but OTM in a pair of Toga Turf runs – stunk in both first ups – class drop
1 – OTELLO – first on grass – has some of the best turf breeding – post stinks
7 – MASTER PIECE – been facing better – but form isn’t as good then as now – Better ATB in last – switch to Irad a tell?
Race 5: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 27% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Best, 4-7 Penalty, 8+ Bonus
2 – NOGUCHI – 2nd Race Improvement – Brown/Irad – MSW drop
3 – V CRUIZER – bullet and go first time – Kendrick and Rice win at 33%
6 – FIDDLING FELIX – TLRSP#+ 13 – big POP – 3rd up – some regression probably coming – 6/0-1-0 – hard to put on top
1 – CAREER RISK – another 1st timer – Brown and Flavien – I’ve heard top trainer don’t debut in MCL ranks – this is an expensive horse – $220K – not including other expenses – win, get claimed and they lose over $50k – what does that tell you?
Race 6: 5 ½ Furlongs Turf – Bias: Stalkers, 12% w2w – PP: Rail Hit, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Almost Fair, 8+ Bonus
First Timers Ranked in Order
1 – SANTINA
2 – MACKINAC
7 – PIE PHI
10 – SHARP MINDSET
6 – PISCES MOON
4 – SNOW FACE PRINCESS
Race 7: 1 3/8 Miles Inner Turf – PP: 4 Races, Closers, 0 w2w – PP: Outside In
7 – WAR OFFICER – in race edge of 1 length LS – longest race of career – I think he digs the extra distance
1 – BRIGADE COMMANDER – is a nose away from winning both Toga turf races
6 – COGNOSCENTI – 2nd up – only other big improvement – will be rolling late too – Irad
4 – KIGALI – seen it too many times – Lone E – highly likely pacesetter with top C Zone – chance to run away with it
$15 Win: 7
Race 8: 7 Furlongs – Bias: 11 Races, Early Speed, 3/11 w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Penalty, 8+ Bonus
2 – DOLOMITE – undefeated in three at the distance – never off the board in 10 races
4 – CALDWELL LUVS GOLD – class dropper – decent first up – OK works – solid at Toga – Irad and Cox at a price
8 – STERLING SILVER – TLRSP#+7 with the biggest in race edge of more than a Length LS and SIM FAV
11 – TRICKY TEMPER – going to take a flyer – not a lot of speed in here – strong chance to be on the lead – 2nd up with best published work between races
Race 9: 5 ½ Furlongs Turf – Bias: Stalkers, 12% w2w – PP: Rail Hit, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Almost Fair, 8+ Bonus
2 – KYLA’S KAUSE – TLRSP#+8 – Top TOTAL PACE of almost a length – 1st L with some EP MSW dropper
5 – FIFI LA FUME – SIM FAV with the biggest in race edge – 1 ¼ Lengths LS – 2 sold works
8 – GOOD MISSION – much faster final time last out
1 – IPSUS – the only other MSW dropper – Terry angle and 2nd race improvement potential
$25 Win: 2
$10 Exacta: 2/1,5,8
