Saratoga Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free Saratoga Picks
Terry’s Picks:
Race 1
5 – Proven Innocent – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 31% of the races in a horse’s 3rd race off a layoff, he has a high % winning jockey and he can handle the distance.
2 – Awakened – He has won a G1 race at today’s distance, he has won two races out of three starts at today’s distance, and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Carloun – He has won a G1 race, he has a good 4F workout on May-28 and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
4 – Evie’s Prince – He is one for one at Saratoga at today’s distance.
Alternate:
6 – Little Trilby
7 – Sultan Pierji
Race 2
3 – Prince Valiant – He has won three races out of four career starts including the last one at Aqueduct and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Train the Trainer – He won last race at Aqueduct by 5-lengths, he has high % winning trainer who wins 24% of the races with a horse he trains is running in a Non-Graded Stakes and he has high % winning jockey.
1 – Soontobeking – He ran 2nd in his last race and the rail post is winning at a 20% clip.
Longshot:
2 – Calling Card – He has high % winning trainer and jockey and he can improve while returning to dirt.
Alternate:
4 – Smilensaycheese
Race 3-Female
4 – Miss Im Pulsive – She ran 2nd vs similar (on Dirt) in her only start, she has the highest last race speed rating and she has high % winning trainer who wins 50% of the races when taking a horse from the dirt to turf.
11 – Just Add Water – She finished 4th in her debut race after being bumped at the break and being a bit slow at the start, she has a high % winning jockey and she has a bullet 4F workout on May-28.
7 – No Ordinary Love – She is a first-time starter whose breeding suggests she will like the grass, her breeding suits today’s sprint distance and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
10 – Willful Mama – She has finished in the money in four races out of seven career starts and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
12 – Olivia’s Grace
6 – Vino Samara`
$.50 Pick 4: 4,7,10,11,12/1,8/2,4,6,8,10/2,7– Cost $50.00
Race 4
8 – Bank Frenzy – He has won five races out of his last eight starts, he has a high % winning jockey and he has a good 4F workout on May-24.
1 – Mama’s Gold – He has finished in the money in three races out of his last five starts, winning two of the races and the distance will not be a problem as he has finished in the money in 86% of the races and winning 57% of the starts.
2 – Dr. Kraft – He has finished in the money in his last five races, he has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
7 – General Banker – He has finished in the money in his last three races, winning one of the starts and his early speed running style helps chances.
Alternate:
6 – Locke and Key
5 – Drake’s Passage
Race 5
4 – Sounds Like a Plan – He finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
10 – The Paddock Pastor – He finished 2nd vs similar in his last race, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 33% of the races in turf starts, he has high % winning jockey and he has a good 4F workout on May-25.
8 – Leon Blue – He has finished in the money in all four career races, winning the last start and he likes the distance.
Longshot:
6 – Toscano – He won his last race at Aqueduct by 6-3/4-lengts, he has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
2 – Pay the Juice
5 – Courtly Banker
Race 6-Female
2 – Bernieandtherose – She has won four races out of five career starts at Aqueduct, she has won both starts at today’s distance, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and she has a high % winning trainer.
7 – Kay Cup – She won her last race at Aqueduct, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Valtellina – She has won two races in a row and now goes for a hat trick, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 17% of the sprints he has a horse running in and she can go the distance.
Longshot:
5 – Accelerating – She has won two races out of four career starts, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 19% of the Non-Graded Stake races he has a horse running in and she has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Crimson Queen
8 – Charlotte’s Heart
Bet: $40.00 Win: 2 – $10.00 Exacta Box: 2/7 – $10.00 Exacta: 2/4,5,6,7
Race 7
9 – Hush of a Storm – He is having a good career finishing in the money in 67% of the races, winning 27% of his starts, he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Clear Conscience – After being off for 6-month he finished 2nd on his return only losing by a nose and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Be of Courage – He has won three races out of his last five starts, winning the last race after being off for a year and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Bettrluckythangood – He has finished in the money in seven races out of ten career starts, winning three races and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
$.50 Pick 4: 3,4,5,9/4,8/5,10/2,3,4,5,10 – Cost $40.00
Race 8-Female
8 – Sterling Silver – She ran 2nd in her last race, she has the highest last race speed rating (tie) her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – P Mutter Pickle – She has won two races out of the last three starts, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and she has a bullet 4F workout on May-28.
2 – Amanda’s Folly – She has finished in the money in three races out of her four starts at Saratoga, winning two of the races and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Call Her Bluff – She ran 3rd in her last race and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
9 – Bernietakescharge
Race 9-Female
10 – Whatlovelookslike – She has been competing in G3 events, has finished in the money in six races out of seven starts at Saratoga, winning three races, loves today’s distance and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Awesome Czech – She has won both starts at Saratoga and she has a high % winning trainer.
9 – Brocknardini – She ran 2nd in her last race, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and she has a good 4F workout on May-25.
Longshot:
3 – Can’t Fool Me – She ran 2nd (on Dirt) in her last race she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Midnight Concerto
7 – Bobby M’s Girl
Race 10
4 – Coach Case – He closed to run 2nd vs similar in only start at a mile and now stretches out to a 1-1/16 and he has a high % winning jockey.
3 – Shakeitforthebird – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
10 – Mission Hill – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, can handle the distance and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
2 – English Castle – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
5 – Spirit of the Law
11 – Sir Lawrence
Best Bet of the Day at Saratoga – 9h Race – #10 – Whatlovelookslike
Tom’s Optimistic Picks:
RACE 1
Tom’s Optimistic Picks
1 – Carloun – set the pace but was unable to continue, pulling up halfway through the race. If he is right, he will lead this field all the way. Workouts are ok, so is it ready?
2 – Awakened – he had issues in the last race, and by the comments, was never in a good rhythm. He’s won at Saratoga, but that was two years ago.
7 – Sultan Pierji – he ran in two allowance races and won the Malvern race on the soft going. He’s in form, young, but has never won at this level, and the trainer has never won a graded stakes race.
Computer Picks: Pass
Handicapper Joe: Pass
RACE 2
Tom’s Optimistic Picks
3 – Prince Valiant – he has won three in a row, including a NY Bred stakes race in the mud. One of the favorites.
2 – Calling Card – he is back where he belongs after trying the turf (awful) and graded stakes company on the road to the KY Derby. He’s only a maiden winner, but the owners/trainer go a bit crazy.
5 – Train the Trainer – Strong effort in the maiden win and top speed figure. He gets Irad and should be on the lead at the start. Can he hold on against more experienced horses?
Computer Picks: 5-3-6-1
Handicapper Joe: 6-3-1 (Pass)
RACE 3
Tom’s Optimistic Picks
11 – Just Add Water – had plenty of issues in his first start, but did finish fourth. Good workouts, but post position could be an issue.
4 – Miss Im Pulsive – ran well in her first start with some issues on the dirt. Speed and should love the turf.
8 – Lady Delilah – showed some interest in running last time out in a moved turf race and ran in the slop. Her previous races were not good. Back on the turf, and is my signs of life horse.
Computer Picks: Pass
Handicapper Joe: Pass
RACE 4
Tom’s Optimistic Picks
8 – Bank Frenzy – ran fourth last time in a grade three race after issues and going too wide. He has won this type of state-bred racing and has a win and a second at Saratoga – favorite.
5 – Drake’s Passage – won this race last year, in the mud, and prepped in an optional claimer this year, showing speed early and fading at one mile. Second up for the win?
1 – Mama’s Gold – too far of a race for him last time out, finished last. Won a state-bred stake race last year at 40-1. If he gets out too far away, he’s in trouble. He will hand on for third.
Computer Picks: 1-7-5-8
Handicapper Joe: 6-5-2-8 (Pass)
RACE 5
Tom’s Optimistic Picks
6 – Toscano – His first race after the claim for 30k, he won a moved-off-the-turf one-mile race for OC40k. No turf experience, but had the breeding to suggest he will like the turf and run distance races too.
2 – Pay the Juice – strong race from the ten post last out, stalking and finished third in the first start of the year. He ran some average efforts in state-bred stakes races, but appears to be giving his best effort in all races.
8 – Leon Blue – won last start in an off-the-turf maiden race. He has been in the money in all races, and the last time was adding Lasix. The jockey stays on with the weight allowance.
Computer Picks: Pass
Handicapper Joe: Pass
RACE 6
Tom’s Optimistic Picks
8 – Charlotte’s Heart – won her maiden on the turf at Saratoga, then shipped to Woodbine for her last three races with a second, third, and fourth in minor stakes races on the all-weather. Tries the dirt for the first time and has a strong dirt workout coming into the race.
5 – Accelerating – she won her first two starts at Saratoga versus state-breds in maiden and stakes races. She was shipped to Oaklawn with two races in top company, but showed up early and had nothing late in the race. She has been working on the all-weather for prep for this race.
6 – Valtellina – won her last two races, both one-mile state-bred optional claimers at Aqueduct. She won at Saratoga in her maiden race and placed in a state-bred stakes race. In form and won at this distance.
Computer Picks: 7-2-6-1
Handicapper Joe: 2-4-10-3-8-5-6 (Pass)
RACE 7
Tom’s Optimistic Picks
1 – Itsallcomintongetha – just missed last time after winning the race before. The last race at Gulfstream was just caught. Overall, he has done well against state-breds in stakes races, and his workouts are good for catching the leader and winning.
3 – Bettrluckythangood – won by a nose last time as the 3-1 favorite. Wide open optional claimer. First start of the season with steady workouts.
9 – Hush of a Storm – appears to be a strong contender here because it runs in top races on both open company and state-bred stakes races. He is one for one at Saratoga winning from the twelve post, but I’m still not sure he is good enough to overcome the outside post with the group of horses inside the home. Flavien Prat has been there before.
Computer Picks: Pass
Handicapper Joe: 3-1-4-9-6
RACE 8
Tom’s Optimistic Picks
9 – Bernietakescharge – I am tossing the last race, in the mud, distanced, and eased. His other race in the mud was bad, too. He’s won at this distance and won an open company minor stakes race at one mile.
8 – Sterling Silver – She will be the favorite after just missing last in a grade two race. In the three previous races, she has won and two seconds in state-bred stakes races—the one to beat.
1 – Racing Colors – big longshot in this race, moving from optional claimers to stakes company. She’s a veteran with forty-two races. She placed twice this year in six races. The rest of the field is a mixed bag of horses and she fits well enough to get a placing.
Computer Picks: 8-9-2
Handicapper Joe: 8-7
RACE 9
Tom’s Optimistic Picks
5 – Awesome Czech – just missed last time out in an OC50k race on the turf at one mile. She won a state-bred stakes race at Saratoga last year and is two for two at this racetrack.
2 – Spinning Colors – has tons of speed and used at Gulfstream in three races but failed in her last race, losing by seven lengths. She does have a win against OC25k and a race that was declared a no-contest. Her one attempt at a state-bred stakes race was not good, but that was in August 2024. She’s better now.
9 – Brocknardini – ran second with a strong rally in her final race last year in an OC45k state-breds. She placed in a state-bred stakes race and has won off the layoff, maiden start.
Computer Picks: 1-5-2-10
Handicapper Joe: 2-4-9-5-3
RACE 10
Tom’s Optimistic Picks
9 – The Saint – first time starter with good workouts, especially on the turf at Palm Meadows. The breeding is questionable. I am going off the works and they paid $80k for him.
5 – Spirit of the Law – beaten favorite last time at Gulfstream ran third after running second in the previous race. These are all-weather runs and failed on the dirt three times. Much more suited for a good turf run.
3 – Shakeitforthebird – has shown good speed in his first two starts, running third in both those races at Saratoga. Returns to the races with workouts at Finger Lakes. Don’t let those fools fool you, working at Finger Lakes but running at Saratoga doesn’t matter to me when it comes to state-breds. I have fooled myself before, but I also have profited nicely from bettors not paying attention to the horse versus the track it’s running on.
Computer Picks: Pass
Handicapper Joe: Pass
