Saratoga Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free Saratoga Picks
Terry’s Picks:
Race 1
4 – Mercilesanihilator – He won his debut race at Churchill Downs, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 35% of the Non-Graded Stakes races he has a horse running in and he has a high % winning jockey.
3 – Mythical – This filly won her debut race at Gulfstream Park, she has the best dirt speed among today’s starters and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Romeo – He won his debut race at Laurel Park by 10-lenghts and he has a bullet 5F workout on May-30.
Longshot:
2 – Blinging It Back – He finished 3rd in his debut race at Churchill Downs and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
1 – Baytown Dreamer
Race 2-Female
5 – Fire’s Out – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, she has a high % winning jockey and she has a good 4F workout on May-27.
4 – Hideaway – She drops in class today and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
8 – Time Stone – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
9 – Bourbon Milk Punch – She finished 2nd in her only race at Saratoga and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
$.50 Pick 4: 4,5,8,9/2,3,6/1,4/4,7,8,10– Cost $48.00
Race 3-Female
3 – Sassy C W – She won her debut race at Churchill Downs, she has the highest last race speed rating and she has a high % winning trainer who wins 35% of the Non-Graded Stake races he has a horse running in and she has a high % winning jockey.
2 – Gena B – She finished 2nd in her debut race, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and she has a good 4F workout on May-24.
6 – Vernon Valley – She won her debut race at Aqueduct and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Varinisi – She won her debut race, the rail post is winning at 27% clip and she has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Ticket to Ride
Race 4-Female
1 – Thiene – She comes in from France after winning three races out of four starts, finishing 2nd in her last race, she has high % winning trainer Linda Rice and has high % winning jockey Jose Lezcano.
4 – Tales of The Heart – She finished 2nd in her last race after checking at the 3/8, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
9 – La Salvadorena – She finished in the money in four races out of five starts, winning one of the races and she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
7 – Sol Hope – She finished 3rd in her last race, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and has a bullet 4F workout on May-29.
Alternate:
2 – Frances Stanley
$.50 Pick 4: 1,4,9/4,7,8,10/4,7,8,9/2,4– Cost $48.00
Race 5-Female
10 – Heavenly Girl – She ran 3rd vs similar in her last start, she finished 2nd in her only start at Saratoga and she has high % winning trainer.
4 – Will of a Womanne – She ran 2nd vs similar in both of her career races, her breeding suggests she will like the grass and she has a good 4F workout on May-28.
7 – On a Summer Day – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race and she can do the distance.
Longshot:
8 – Trulli Magic – She finished 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in her last race, his breeding suggests she will like the grass as her Dam has 1 winner from 3 starters and 1 Turf winner and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
5 – Nonna Lynne
Race 6-Female
9 – Donor Advised – She won her last race at Aqueduct, her early speed running style helps chances and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
8 – Velvet Vortex – She has the highest last race speed rating, her early speed running style helps chances, so the longer distance can help ands he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Limes Don’t Lie – She won her last race at Aqueduct, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and she has a good 4F workout on May-30.
Longshot:
7 – Pure Beauty – She has finished in the money in two races out of four career starts, winning one of the races, she drops in class today and she has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
1A – Luna Moth
10 – Mursal
Race 7-Female
2 – Future Is Now – She has won six races out of the last nine starts, including winning the last race, her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has high % winning jockey Paco Lopez.
4 – Danse Macabre – She finished 3rd in her last race, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and loves the distance.
1 – Pandora’s Gift – She ran 2nd in last her race and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Pipsy – She won her last race at Keenland, she has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
5 – Twirling Queen
$.50 Pick 4: 2,4/3,4,8,7/2,3,6/1,3,9,10 – Cost $48.00
Bet: $40.00 Win: 2 – $10.00 Exacta Box: 2/4 – $10.00 Exacta: 2/1,4,6,10
Race 8–
8 – Film Star – He ran 2nd in his last race, his early speed running style helps chances, he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
3 – Classic Catch– He has finished in the money in his last four races, finishing 3rd in his last race, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and he has a high % winning trainer.
4 – Willy D’s – He ran 2nd in his last race and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
7 – Kuchar – He drops in class today and he has high % winning jockey.
Race 9
2 – Intellect – He comes in from France after winning the last two races, finishing 3rd in his first race in the USA and he has a high % winning trainerand jockey.
4 – Major Dude – He finished 3rd in his last race, he has high % winning trainer and jockey and has a bullet 4F workout on May-29.
6 – Sherlock’s Jewel – He has won two races in a row and now goes for a hat trick and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
8 – Donegal Momentum – He finished in the money in seven races out of nine career starts, winning four of the races and he likes the distance.
Race 10-Female
10 – Just So Pretty – She has finished in the money in four races out of seven career starts, finishing 2nd in her last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 27% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and she has a high % winning jockey.
9 – Smartest – She finished 2nd in her debut race as the heavily bet favorite, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and Lasix is added.
3 – Green Jobs – She finished 3rd vs similar (on AW) in her last race and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Queens Fable – She has finished 3rd in the last three races and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and blinkers added today.
Alternate:
7 – Faded Jeans
2 – Dandy Vandy
Best Bet of the Day at Saratoga – 7th Race – #2 – Future Is Now
Tom’s Optimistic Picks:
RACE 1
Tom’s Optimistic Picks
3 – Mythical – blew them away with a saving ground win by eight plus lengths. Received a top speed rating.
4 – Mercilesanihilator – dueled and then got the best of his rival to win at Churchill Downs. The important fact for me in this race is that he fought back.
5 – Romeo – a winner by ten lengths at Laurel with some issue like running a bit “green”. A lot of upside on this horse to come.
Computer Picks: 3-5-4
Handicapper Joe: 2-4-3 (PASS)
RACE 2
Tom’s Optimistic Picks
9 – Bourbon Milk Punch – In three sprint races, she gets going but doesn’t quite finish. Runs are good enough, but she needs two turns to show her best. The breeding also points in that direction.
6 – Ratu Jawa – the outside post did not favor in its only start. She got interested last and will learn from the run. Take off five pounds with a jockey allowance, and she will hit the board at a big price.
1 – Magnum’s Microbrst – Showed speed run second for it’s first start on the turf. On the rail, get a position and see if she can finish strongly.
Computer Picks: PASS
Handicapper Joe: PASS
RACE 3
Tom’s Optimistic Picks
3 – Sassy C W – won with a hand ride at Churchill. The workout was strong at Hawthorne two back, and the last work was maintenance work. She blows them away again.
2 – Gena B – couldn’t get by the winner in her first start and won’t today.
1 – Varinisi – came off a win at Evangeline Downs and won going away, but the time was not great.
Computer Picks: PASS
Handicapper Joe: PASS
RACE 4
Tom’s Optimistic Picks
4 – Tales of The Heart – just missed at Keeneland in her U.S. debut. She finished third at Ascot in a Group 3 race but has only won once from her six starts, and that was on all-weather at Kempton.
2 – Frances Stanley – claimed from 50k at Turfway two starts back, she had some issues finishing the race. The next start for the new owners was on the turf at Aqueduct, and she won the OC40k race sitting behind the leaders and a strong finish move. She has gone off the favorite in her three races.
7 – Sol Hope – her last four races have been in Florida with mixed results. A win in an OC62, 50k races in October off a layoff as the favorite. The next three were two third-place finishes and a troubled run at Tampa in a stakes race. She gets Irad and comes into the race with a fast, in-the-mud workout.
Computer Picks: PASS
Handicapper Joe: PASS
RACE 5
Tom’s Optimistic Picks
5 – Nonna Lynne – first start, she was slow from the gate, made a move too early in the race, and didn’t finish. Add Lasix today, and it should improve in its first start this year.
9 – Tralee Girl – returning to the races after two starts, and showed some positive possibilities, but could only manage a sixth and then a fourth. The fourth was against males, and she saved ground-breaking for the tenth post and got tired late. Prat is to ride.
3 – Cloudy Chance – she had issues in both of her two starts. Bumping and too wide. Today, she tries the turf for the first time after running in six furlong races. Let’s take a price shot here.
Computer Picks: PASS
Handicapper Joe: PASS
RACE 6
Tom’s Optimistic Picks
9 – Donor Advised – won her last race, a maiden race, after a stumble at the start. It was a game effort, and she was the favorite. She should show good speed, but will need to overcome the nine post today, getting to the turn from the chute.
2 – Table Flirt – won her maiden on the turf at Gulfstream going one mile and an eighth. She tried and failed against graded stakes company and then ran a third on the dirt at Churchill with issues at the start, in her last race. Is she a dirt and/or turf horse? Mott knows how to place horses in races to have the most success.
4 – Limes Don’t Lie – a winner in her last start at seven furlongs over maiden with issues at the beginning and caught and passed her rivals. The distance should suit her, and the post position will help her chance; she just needs to break well.
Computer Picks: 8-10-1-1A-9
Handicapper Joe: 7-1-4-9 (PASS)
RACE 7
Tom’s Optimistic Picks
6 – Pipsy – she won her last start stalking the pace at this distance at Keeneland. She placed second at Kentucky Downs in a Grade 2 race and came back for her final start at Keeneland, where she ran seventh with issues. The last race was a strong effort, and I expect her to repeat that run today.
1 – Pandora’s Gift – Since shipping in from England, she has run well but hasn’t won. All efforts were in graded stakes races, with one on the all-weather. She’s won handicaps and lower-level races on the all-weather but has yet to win on the turf. I like her for a placing again today.
2 – Future Is Now – she’s won three in a row, dating back last season, and returns to the races with a win in a Grade three at Keeneland in a head bob. She has eight wins from thirteen starts on the turf. The favorite with good speed and the one to beat.
Computer Picks: 1-2-4-5
Handicapper Joe: 6-2-8-4
RACE 8
Tom’s Optimistic Picks
7 – Kuchar – first start of the season after running in three graded stakes races without success. But he does win at this level. The workouts are average, but I think he will put in a big effort today.
3 – Classic Catch – He has had some reasonable racing efforts but not won, placing in his last four races. He showed some pace in three races and came from way back to get second with issues. He is good enough for a placing only.
4 – Willy D’s – made the lead and then was past late to run second. They claimed him for $ 50,000 and two in-the-money runs at Oaklawn and Churchill. Mike Maker must think strongly about the placement of this horse in this race.
Computer Picks: 3-9-7-2
Handicapper Joe: 4-1-2-8
RACE 9
Tom’s Optimistic Picks
8 – Donegal Momentum – showed speed the entire race last time and lost by half a length. Tried the dirt in the Carter and that was a failure. He’s won on the dirt but performs best on the turf and has never been out of the money in five starts.
6 – Sherlock’s Jewel – two races this year, both on the turf, and both were wins. One race was closer to the pace. He placed third in grade three on the dirt, but has run well lately.
2 – Intellect – ran first start state side at Keeneland and must second by a nose. The majority of his racing in France has been at minor tracks, except for his last start and win, which was at ParisLongchamp. Steps up in the company, but if it runs like last time, he will continue to improve.
Computer Picks: 2-3-7-4 (10 is a wild card)
Handicapper Joe: 3-1-4-7
RACE 10
Tom’s Optimistic Picks
5 – Bint Al Dandy – his first start in the States was at Kentucky Downs and was off slow, went wide and faded badly to run fifth. The first career start was at Gowran Park and ran second at 28-1 on the soft going. The workouts on the dirt have been excellent, with three bullet workouts, and the final work was good too.
7 – Faded Jeans – showed good speed in the last race at the Fairgrounds before going backwards. He has been working at Keeneland as a prep for this race. He will improve on the previous race.
3 – Green Jobs – he has run twice, the first start was forgettable, but his second up race was better on the all-weather, moved off the turf. She was bumped at the beginning, rallied wide, and was within one length of the lead running third. Steady workouts and you get Prat/Brown combo.
Computer Picks: PASS
Handicapper Joe: PASS
