Saratoga Full Card Tips, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
$100 Challenge – Suggested Wagers for Saratoga on a $100 Budget
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Charles Town
Saratoga Picks and Comments
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
8 – Portage – She finished 2nd in her last race at Belmont Park and she has a high % winning and trainer jockey.
4 – Sister Maha – She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 2 winners from 2 starters, has a high % winning and trainer and jockey and this combo in the last 14 days has this record (10 3-2-1).
1 – Stunningly – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, she has the highest last race speed rating, and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Dark Princess – She finished 3rd in her last race at Belmont Park, has a high % winning trainer and jockey and this combo in the last 14 days has this record (23 9-4-1).
Alternate:
7 – Ms. Solveig
Bet: None
Race 2
7 – Antonio of Venice – He has finished in the money in both of his career starts, finishing 3rd in his last race and blinkers added today.
8 – Group Ticket – She finished 6th after an awkward break and is ridden by Irad Ortiz and he has a bullet 3F workout on July-18.
3 – Astronomico – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and has a trainer who wins 18% of the races when shipping a horse in to race.
Longshot:
1 – Walstib – He is a first-time starter, his Dam has 3 winners from 3 starters and 1 stakes winner, breeding suits today’s sprint distance and he has a good 4F workout on July-13.
Alternate:
6 – Catire Vizcaya
5 – Honest Al
Bet: $.50 Pick 4 –2nd race #1,3,5,6,7,8– 3rd race #7,8 – 4th race #3- 5th race #1,2,3,8,9
Race 3
8 – Destin’s Mission – He ran 2nd in his last race at Monmouth Park, has the highest last race speed rating and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Sugar Gray Leonard – He finished 3rd (on Dirt) in his last race and has a high % winning jockey.
6 – Sandrone – He has an early foot so the shorter distance should help, and he has a good 3F workout on July-15.
Longshot:
5 – Highly Flammable – He has finished in the money in three of his last four races, winning two of the races at Belmont Park and finishing 3rd in his last race.
Bet: None
Race 4
3 – Pretti Xtreme – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race at Oaklawn Park, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and she switches to a high % winning jockey.
2 – With This Vow – She ran 2nd vs similar (on Turf) in her last race, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, can improve while returning to dirt and has a good 4F workout on July-12.
4 – Good Penny – She finished in the money in 40% of her career races, winning 28% of her career starts.
Longshot:
1 – Mariah’s Fortune – She is perfect at Saratoga, winning both of her starts there, she drops in class today she has a high % Jockey and can improve at the shorter distance.
Alternate:
5 – Halo City
6 – Greatest Love
Bet: – $.50 Pick 4 – 4th race #3 – 5th race #1,2,3,8,9 – 6th race #3,6,8,10 – 7th #1 – $20.00 Win #3
Race 5
3 – Crazy Mason – He ran 2nd in his last race at Monmouth Park, and he has a high % winning trainer whose horses win 17% of the races when using 1st time blinkers.
9 – Rock Star Boy – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and received the highest last race speed rating.
2 – Uncle Eddie – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race at Delaware Park and he has a bullet 5f workout on July 13th.
Longshot:
8 – Threewhitesoldiers – He is a first-time starter whose Dam has 1 winner from 2 starters and a good 4F workout on July-15.
Alternate:
1 – Crown That Saint
Bet: None
Race 6
3 – Kodiac Wintergreen – She finished 2nd in her debut race and has a trainer whose horses win 25% of the races in a horse’s 2nd career race and has a good 4F workout on July-13.
6 – Dancing Nancy – She is a first-time starter, has a high % winning trainer, her breeding suggests she will like the grass and her breeding suits today’s sprint distance.
10 – Ever So Sweet – She is a first-time starter, has a high % winning jockey and her breeding suggests she will like the grass.
Longshot:
8 – Neom Beach – She is a first-time starter, has a high % winning and trainer and jockey and her breeding suggests she will like the grass.
Alternate:
11 – Later Darling
12 – Life’s Joy
Bet: None
Race 7
1 – Spirit of St Louis – He won his last race at Belmont Park and has a high % winning trainer and jockey and this combo in the last 14 days has this record (7 2-2-0).
4 – Conman – He won his last race at Belmont Park and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Agent Creed – He finished in the money in his last three races, winning one of the starts and has a high % winning jockey in the last 7 days has this record (28 7-8-0).
Longshot:
8 – Graded On a Curve – He finished 3rd (on AW) in his last race and has a trainer who wins 28% of the races in a horses 3rd race off a layoff.
Alternate:
5 – Frank’s Art
Bet: $.50 Pick 4 – 7th race #1- 8th race # 1,2,8 – 9th race # 1,5,7,10 – 10th # 7,8 – $20.00 Win: #1
Race 8
8 – She Caught My Eye – She has won three out of his last six races and has a high % winning trainer who wins 33% races after dropping a horse off win and a high % winning jockey.
1 – Mosienko – She drops in class today, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
2 – Know It All Audrey – She finished in the money in nine out of her last ten races, winning four and finishing 3rd vs tougher in her last race and drops in class today.
Longshot:
3 – Knowing Glance – She finished in the money in her last five starts, winning the last race and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
6 – Invaluable
4 – Sue Ellen Mishkin
Bet: None
Race 9
7 – Exact Estimate – He won his last race at Belmont Park and has a high % winning trainer and jockey and has a good 4F workout on July-15.
10 – Chasing the Crown – He finished in the money in six of his seven career races, winning two and finishing 3rd in his last race.
1 – Ari Gold – He has won two races in a row and is now going for a hat trick; the rail post is winning at a 19% clip and has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
5 – James Aloysius – He finished in the money in his five career starts, winning two of the starts and has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
12 – Napoleonic War
Bet: $1.00 DD: 1,5,7,10/7,8
Race 10
8 – Twenty – Six Black – He ran 2nd in his last race and has a trainer who wins 25% of the races when a horse he trains in their 1st race at a route.
7 – Ramblin’ Wreck – He won his last race at Belmont Park and has a high % winning jockey and has a trainer whose horse wins 22% of the races in Non-Graded Stake races.
2 – Itsallcomintogetha – He likes the turf finishing in the money in four out of five career starts, winning one of the races and he finished 3rd in last race.
Longshot:
4 – Vacation Dance – He switches to a high % winning jockey and has a high % winning trainer who wins 17% of the races when running a horse in a Non-Graded Stakes race.
Bet: None
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 32% w2w – PP: All Fair Except 2/3 are Under Par
4 – SISTER MAHA – strong July 4 work at Saratoga – 5f in 59.3
5 – REVOLVING CREDIT – pair of nice 4f Toga works on July 8 and 15
2 – FEATHERING – the works at Belmont on June 25th and July 2nd were excellent, a couple 4f under 48
1 – STUNNINGLY – Chris P angle, 2nd up, increased SP# last 2, could be pacesetter, not sure cutback helps
Suggested Wagers: $1 Exacta Box: 2,4,5
Race 2: 5 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 64% w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ No Wins
1 – WALSTIB – strong Toga works getting prepped for debut
7 – ANTONIO OF VENICE – TLRSP by a decent margin for experienced horses
8 – GROUP TICKET – showed a lot of early speed in debut, awkward start in race 2, bullet work 3f in 35.4 at Monmouth says he’ll rock out of the gates today
5 – HONEST AL – consistent works at the SPA getting ready for debut
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,7,8/1,7/1,5,6,7,8
Race 3: 5 ½ Furlongs Turf – Bias: Stalkers – 19% w2w – PP: 1-7 Above Par, 8+ Big Ding
7 – SUGAR GRAY LEONARD – could be better in round two off the bench, huge mid move in last
8 – DESTIN’S MISSION – speed number climbing in last two, Kendrick on a speed horse
1 – KING JAMES – volatile horse, maybe highest ceiling and lowest floor in the race – top turf pedigree by a long shot
5 – HIGHLY FLAMMABLE – consistent performer that missed by a neck at this level last out
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,7,8/7,8/1,5,6,7,8
Race 4: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed – 16% w2w – PP: Fair 1-7, 8+ Big Ding
1 – MARIAH’S FORTUNE – horse for the course? Undefeated in a pair at Toga
2 – WITH THIS VOW – top combo of EP and C-Zone
3 – PRETTI XTREME – consistent horse with back class, plenty of decent works getting prepped, not worth even money in my view
6 – GREATEST LOVE – Top Total Pace and lone EP horse vs field that wants to be mid pace and back
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 4: 1,2/1,8,9/3,4,6/1,1A,3
Race 5: 5 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 64% w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ No Wins
8 – THREEWHITESOLDIERS –like the works, maybe best of the bunch
1 – CROWN THAT SAINT – good, consistent work pattern, last work might be best of all of them
9 – ROCK STAR BOY – was well bet in debut, Chris P angle
3 – CRAZY MASON – also well bet in Monmouth debut, two good works between races
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,8,9/8,9/1,3,6,8,9
Race 6: 5 ½ Furlongs Turf – Bias: Stalkers – 19% w2w – PP: 1-7 Above Par, 8+ Big Ding
3 – KODIAC WINTERGREEN – should be better in race number 2, some really good works since
4 – LAMORNA – probably the best works of the first timers
6 – DANCING NANCY – consistent, good works, Chad Brown horse
9 – GEMOFAPERFORMANCE – bullet and go, don’t care for the post
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 3/4,6,8,9,10/4,6,8,9,10
Race 7: 1 Mile Inner Turf – Bias: Stalkers/Closers – 21% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2-7 Fair, 8+ Discount
3 – AGENT CREED – better pace in first half last out, 3 SP# increases, 3rd up and resume says 3rd should be best of the three
1 – SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS – we’ll take the entry, this one will close and….
1A – CALL ME HARRY – this one will push the pace
4 – CONMAN -really good form right now, upped SP# in last two, better ATB in last with power mid move
2 – CITIZEN K – tough call over the 8, but better PP and more consistent performer
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 4: 1,3/1,2,4,8/1,5,7/6,7,8
Race 8: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 32% w2w – PP: All Fair Except 2/3 are Under Par
8 – SHE CAUGHT MY EYE – TLRSP# and drops off the win, won only 7f trip with ease at Toga
1 – MOSIENKO – good drop in class, 3rd start after a layoff, usually makes a good push late
2 – KNOW IT ALL AUDREY – another class dropper with inside speed, OK works since last
4 – SUE ELLEN MISHKIN – tends to run well off the bench, speed and Kendrick again with some really fast works for first run since May
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,8/1,2,8/1,2,4,8
Race 9: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Bias: Closers – 9% w2w – Inside Out Bias with 1-3 Bonus
1 – ARI GOLD – TLRSP# by a decent margin, seen it too many times to pass up, 1st Lasix and rail bonus
5 – JAMES ALOYSIUS – hasn’t run a bad race in 5, best have been fresh off the bench like today, drops from a 102k NGST
7 – EXACT ESTIMATE – very consistent performer, Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz winning at 40% together – crazy
6 – SARATOGA FLASH – a couple of noses from winning 4 in a row, distance is the key 5/3-0-1, just 2 wins in 12 at any other length
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,5,7/1,5/1,5,6,7,8
Race 10: 1 Mile Inner Turf – Bias: Stalkers – 21% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2-7 Fair, 8+ Discount
8 – TWENTY SIX BLACK – upped SP# in three race post debut, unbeaten in 2 on inner courses
6 – WILLINTORISKITALL – we’ll take a shot, Jose D’Angelo 25% winner off the claim and huge improvement in 2nd start and first on grass
7 – RAMBLIN’ WRECK – 3SP# increases, TLRSP# at this level last out, all or nothing though on grass 4/2-0-0
4 – VACATION DANCE – capable of some very aggressive EP#s through ½ mile,
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 6,8/6,7,8/2,4,6,7,8
