Saratoga Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Presque Isle Downs: https://www.guaranteedtipsheet.com/in…
Free Saratoga Racing Racing Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
Saratoga – 8-21-2024
Race 1
4 – Protective – He ran 2nd vs similar (on Dirt) in his last race, he has the highest last race speed rating and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
8 – Accidental Bid – He ran 2nd (on Dirt) in his only start and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
9 – Elko County – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
2 – Il Siciliano – He has a good trainer and jockey.
Race 2-Female
3 – Chasing Colton – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, switches to a high % winning jockey, she has high % winning trainer and blinkers added today.
9 – Sacrosanct – She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 2 winners from 2 starters and 1 stakes winner and she has high % winning trainer and jockey.
10 – Toga Life – She is a first-time starter whose sire wins 30% of the time with 1st time Starters and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Scheduling Dude – She is a first-time starter whose breeding suits today’s sprint distance and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
1 – Powmissio
Contest Pick: #3-9
The 1234 Pick 4
$.50 Pick 4: 3,9,10/1,2,5,6/5,7/5– Cost $12.00
Race 3
6 – Cathkin Peak – He likes the turf, finishing in the money in 58% of the races, winning 21% of the races, he has high % winning trainer Michael Maker and he has high % winning jockey Jose Ortiz.
1 – Six Minus – He finished 3rd in his last race, can handle the distance and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Andthewinneris – He has a high % winning trainer and switches high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Winning Spirit – He came in from Europe and finished poorly at Churchill Downs, switches to a high % winning jockey and has a high % winning trainer and blinkers added today.
Contest Pick: #6 – 1
Race 4
7 – Roman Empire – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, has a high % winning trainer who wins 19% of the route races he has a horse in, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and he has a high % winning jockey.
5 – Accidental Hero – He finished 4th in his last race after stumbling at the start as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 21% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again, drops in class today and blinkers added today.
1 – Six Percent – He finished in the money in five out of eight starts at Saratoga, winning two of the starts, has the highest last race speed rating and he has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
2 – Optic Way – He drops in class today, can improve in 3rd start since layoff and his early speed running style helps chances
Contest Pick: #7 – 5
Race 5
5 – More Vino – He finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today switches to a high % winning jockey and he has a high % winning trainer.
6 – Barrell Craft – He finished 3rd vs tougher (on AW) in his last race, drops in class today and has high % winning trainer and jockey and he has a good 4F workout on Aug-16.
8 – Midnight Express – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and has high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Ice Road – He finished in the money in his last four starts, finishing 3rd vs tougher in the last race, he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Contest Pick: #6 -5
Race 6-Female
4 – Playful Lass – She ran 2nd vs similar (on Dirt) in her only start, her Dam has 8 winners from 9 starters and 3 Turf winners, she has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
12- Cha Cha Wren – She is a first-time starter whose breeding suggests she will like the grass and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
13- Open Flame – She is a first-time starter and she has high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
10- Heavenly Light – She finished 3rd vs similar in her only start, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 21% of the races in the 1st route race he has a horse running in and she has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
The No Favorite Pick 4
$.50 Pick 4: #,4,9,10,11,12,1/1,3,8/4,5,9/4,13,14– Cost $45.00
Contest Pick: #4 – 12
Race 7–
2 – Runnin’ Ray – He has finished in the money in both of his starts at Saratoga, winning one of the starts, drops in class today, he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and he has a high % winning jockey.
1 – Lost in Rome – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last start and he switches to a high % winning trainer who wins 25% trainer in the1st race after claiming a horse.
3 – It’s Viper – He tried turf in his last race finishing 4th and may improve while returning to dirt and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
8 – Complete Agenda – He won his last race at Saratoga; has the best dirt speed among today’s starters and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
9 – Midnight Trouble
6 – St Andrews
Bet: $10.00 Win & $20.00 Place: #2
Contest Pick: #1: #2-1
Race 8
4 – Twisted Filigree – He has finished in the money in his three career starts, running 2nd vs similar in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer.
9 – Big Prankster- He finished 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in his last race, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 25% of the races when taking a horse from the Dirt to Turf and he and jockey.
13 – On the Hill – He ran 2nd vs similar (on Dirt) in his last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 26% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and can improve at the shorter distance.
Longshot:
5 – Li’l Lang – He won his last race at Aqueduct and he has high % winning trainer.
Contest Pick: #4 – 9
Race 9
4 – Sweet Fantasy – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
9 – Mythical Man – He is a first-time starter, has a high % trainer and jockey and has a good 4F workout on Aug-14.
14 – Tapwrits Temper – He finished 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating, he has a high % trainer and May improve at the longer distance.
Longshot:
13 – King’s Leap – His Dam has 1 winner from 2 starters and he has a high % winning jockey.
Contest Pick: #4 – 9
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 7th Race -# 2 – Runnin’ Ray
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 1 3/8 Miles Inner Turf – OFF
4 – PROTECTIVE – aside from some funny business – hard to see how this one loses
8 – ACCIDENTAL BID – maybe the one who can surprise to the upside in 2nd start
9 – ELKO COUNTY – at his best and the 4 or 8 don’t show up – could win
2 – IL SICILIANO – somebody has to be 4th of 4
Race 2: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 30% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2-7 Penalty, 8+ Best
7 – BOLD FORTUNE 3/3 –
4 – SKYTOWN – 2.5 – some sharp TOGA works in late July/early August
9 – SACROSANCT – 2.7 – trainer Brad Cox – 260K horse
5 – SCHEDULING DUDE – 2.5 – back bullet on June 23rd at Belmont 47.1 BG
Race 3: 1 5/8 Miles Turf – OFF
1 – SIX MINUS – should ne as good maybe a little better in 3rd up – Irad
4 – CURBSTONE – maybe gets to the lead and keeps it
6 – CATHKIN PEAK – a Group 2 win in Italy should translate to this level in the US – we’ll toss last and expect better in 2nd US race
2 – ANDTHEWINNERIS – consistent performer that needs a little more upside – 2nd up after more than a year off can be a boom or bust
Race 4: 1 1/8 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 43% w2w – PP: Rail Penalty, 2-3 Fair, 4-7 Almost Fair, 8+ Best
5 – ACCIDENTAL HERO – resume says a better race in round two is coming – TLRSP+ 9
1 – SIX PERCENT – last race better than it looks with much faster fractions
4 – LORD CAPTAIN – has the most recent back class and top race at TOGA – rerun that and wins
6 – GUT FEELING – bounce back race coming in third off the bench – tough call over the 7, but seen too many PARX invaders really struggle vs NYRA company
Race 5: 1 Mile – Bias: Stalkers, 32% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2-7 Fair, 8+ None
6 – BARRELL CRAFT – tough call over the 5, but might have more room for upside?
5 – MORE VINO – been the best horse in the field both of his races – Irad rides
3 – ICE ROAD – the only horse with a Par race on his resume
8 – MIDNIGHT EXPRESS – just missed last out at this level
Race 6: 1 1/16 Miles Inner Turf – OFF
10 – HEAVENLY LIGHT – just needs to improve off of her debut as the betting favorite – better start
4 – PLAYFUL LASS – Chris P angle – and another with 2nd race improvement getting the job done
11 – MANGETSU – back bullet work at TFWY 4f in 47.2 BG
12 – CHA CHA WREN – Brad Cox/Florent Geroux going to get play – avg works and breeding though
Race 7: 1 1/8 Miles Bias: Early Speed, 43% w2w – PP: Rail Penalty, 2-3 Fair, 4-7 Almost Fair, 8+ Best
8 – COMPLETE AGENDA – better ATB in last with most back class – let’s see some of it today
1 – LOST IN ROME – usually runs into some kind of trouble – last clean race won for fun – that was on the lead, probably there or co pilot today
2 – RUNNIN’ RAY – ML FAV – very consistent performer – usually runs well fresh like today
6 – ST ANDREWS – resume says 3rd up should be a touch better than 2nd up – which would be competitive for the win and high probability ITM
Race 8: 5 ½ Furlongs Turf – OFF
4 – TWISTED FILIGREE – could be unbeaten in 3 – FIRST LASIX – ES – going to be pacesetter
10 – EMPIRE SKY – is a nose from winning both 5 1/2f dirt races at Toga
5 – LI’L LANG – another that could be on the front – best published work between races
13 – ON THE HILL – ML FAV – has the most back class – regressed badly in last 3rd up
1 – LIMIT UP –
Race 9: 1 1/16 Miles Inner Turf – OFF
9 – MYTHICAL MAN – 1st timer starter without much to beat
8 – SALVATION – the other first time starter without much to beat
14 – TAPWRITS TEMPER – improved a lot in last race – similar move up the ladder could make him hard to beat
4 – SWEET FANTASY – been decently backed in every race and improved in every race – 2 maintenance works suggest continued betterment
