Saratoga Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free Saratoga Racing Racing Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
Saratoga – 8-22-2024
Race 1-Female
10 – Vehemente – She ran 2nd vs similar in her only start and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Stone Smuggler – She is a first-time starter whose Sire wins 17% of the races with 1st time Starters, her Dam has 1 winner from 3 starters, her breeding suits today’s sprint distance, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and a good 4F workout on Aug-16.
8 – With the Angels – She is a first-time starter whose breeding suits today’s sprint distance, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and she has a good 4F workout on Aug-11.
Longshot:
3 – Willful Mama – She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 4 winners from 4 starters and 2 stakes winners, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and a good 5F workout on Aug-13.
Alternate:
4 – Princess Mischief
Race 2-Female
3 – Delahaye – She finished 3rd in her last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 28% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and she has a high % winning jockey.
5 – Gina Romantica – She finished 3rd in her last race and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Beaute Cachee – She won her last race at Monmouth and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Surprisingly – She has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
The 1234 Pick 4
$.50 Pick 4: 3,4,5/1,3,4,7/6/6,9 – Cost $12.00
Race 3 -Female
1 – In Time – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, can handle the distance and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Sy B – She drops in class today and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Glittering Lights – She was beaten only 1-1/2 lengths vs similar in her last start, her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
7 – Justdeny – She has a win at today’s distance, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and a good 5F workout on Aug-13.
Contest Pick: #1 – 3
Race 4
6 – Master of Arms – He drops in class today has a high % winning trainer who wins 18% of the sprints he has a horse running in.
9 – Briterdayzahead – He won his last race at Saratoga; he has a high % winning trainer who wins 22% of the races in the 1st after claiming a horse and he has a high % winning jockey.
2 – Scaramanga – He won his last race at Saratoga and the rail post is winning at a 21% clip.
Longshot:
1A – Mister J T – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race at Saratoga and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
5 – Saffa’s Day
Contest Pick: #9 – 6
The No Favorite Pick 4
$.50 Pick 4: #1A,2,9/8,9/6,9,10/1,2,5,6 – Cost $36.00
Race 5
6 – Magnificent Mile – He finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
9 – Three Zero – He drops in class today, has the highest last race speed rating and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
8 – For Some Reason – He finished 2nd in his last race and he has a high % winning jockey.
Contest Pick: #6 –9
Race 6-Female
6 – Teca – She finished 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in her last race, her breeding suggests she will like the grass and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
10 – Someone – She lunged and hit the gate at the start in her only start losing all chance, she switches to a high % winning jockey, can improve while trying grass as her Dam has 2 winners from 4 starters and 1 Turf winner.
9 – Authenticate Now – She has a high % winning jockey and a good 4F workout on Aug-13
Longshot:
2- Annie Goodbody – She has a trainer who wins 20% of the races in the 1st race at a route a horse he trains runs in, she can improve at the longer distance and a bullet 4F workout on Aug-13.
Alternate:
1 – Lotus Petal
Contest Pick: #6 – 10
Race 7-Female
7 – Headline Numbers – She won her debut race at Aqueduct by 11-lenghts and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Central Avenue – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Standoutsensation – She was a non-starter in her last race but ran 2nd vs similar in her previous race and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Camera – She has finished in the money in four races out of six career starts, the distance will not be a problem and she is trained by Todd Pletcher.
Alternate:
6 – Sweet Mystery
Contest Pick: #1: #7-2
The Normal Pick 4
$.50 Pick 4: 2,7/1,3,5,6/3,5,9,10/3,6,7 – Cost $48.00
Bet: $10.00 Win & $20.00 Place: #7
Race 8
3 – Gulfport – He won his last race at Churchill Downs, and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Disco Ball – He has won three races in a row; the rail post is winning at a 21% clip he has a high % winning trainer.
6 – Gun It – He has finished in the money in three out of six starts at Saratoga, winning one of the races and he has high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Kavod – He won his last race at Churchill Downs and he switches to a high % jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Little Vic
7 – Runninsonofagun
Contest Pick: #3 -1
Race 9-Female
3 – Can’t Fool Me – She ran 2nd in her last race, her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and she has high % winning trainer.
10 – Im Just Kiddin – She has a high % winning trainer and jockey and she has a good 4F workout (Aug-15)
5 – Spooky Lady – She likes the turf finishing in the money in 60% pf the starts, winning 20% of the races, she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
Longshot:
9 – Solib – She has won two out of the last four races and the additional distance will help.
Contest Pick: #3 – 10
Race 10-Female
3 – Arrasou –She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – La Salvadorena – She has a high % trainer who wins 21% of the races when taking a horse from a route to sprint, her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters, she has high % winning jockey and blinkers added today.
7 – Shop Lifting – She finished 5th in her last race after being bumped at the start, she has high % winning trainer and jockey and blinkers added today.
Longshot:
2 – Precisely – She finished 3rd vs similar in her only start, she has high % winning trainer and jockey and Lasix is added.
Alternate:
5 – Blackfoot Daisy
1 – Unhidden Gem
Contest Pick: #3 -5
Best Bet of the Day at Saratoga – 7th Race– #7 Headline Numbers
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 30% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2-7 Penalty, 8+ Best
7 – FIVE G – back bullet work on Aug 11 – 4f in 47.2 -fastest of 182 at Toga
8 – WITH THE ANGELS – some excellent works prepping for debut
10 – VEHEMENTE – was 1 to 2 fav in debut – finished a distant 2nd after some excuses
3 – WILLFUL MAMA – excellent breeding, solid works
Race 2: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Bias: Stalkers, 12% w2w – PP: Outside Bias
3 – DELAHAYE – probably run the best on an anything than firm footing
5 – GINA ROMANTICA – ML – makes the third start after a layoff
4 – BEAUTE CACHEE – went w2w in the only time she caught a good surface – could be pacesetter
1 – SURPRISINGLY – right distance 6/2-2-1
Race 3: 1 3/8 Inner Turf – Bias: 5 Races, Stalkers, 1 w2w – PP: Inside 3 won all but 1 – other 4-7
4 – GLITTERING LIGHTS – ML – any of her 4 races since coming from France would win here
5 – PRETTY PROVOCATIVE – the only other horse in the field to run a recent par race
1 – IN TIME – could at her best in the third race after a layoff and just missed at this level last out
3 – SY B – has faced the stiffest company – probably needs a better start
Race 4: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 30% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2-7 Penalty, 8+ Best
5 – SAFFA’S DAY – drops in class and has the most back class
6 – MASTER OF ARMS – ML – bigger class dropper – speed and fade at 7f in last – cut back to 6f helps
9 – BRITERDAYZAHEAD – should be as good, maybe a little better in 2nd up for likely pacesetter
8 – COMMERCE COMET – has fired or failed off the bench – decent series of works for 1st since Feb
Race 5: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 30% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2-7 Penalty, 8+ Best
9 – THREE ZERO – could jump out to an EZ lead and not give it up
6 – MAGNIFICENT MILE – ML – down in class and best dirt record of the trio
8 – FOR SOME REASON – somebody has to be three of three
Race 6: 1 1/16 Miles Inner Turf – Bias: Closers, 15% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2+ Fairish with little extra for 4-7
2 – ANNIE GOODBODY – just needs to improve a small amount off of debut effort
6 – TECA – lone E that could get an easy lead – 6 wide in last – no such problem here
5 – MEZCALIFORNIA – major step forward in the 2nd start – bullet work since – might be even better today
9 – AUTHENTICATE NOW – troubled trip in debut – stumbled badly at the start – decently bet, horse that finished 2nd came back to win her MDN race at Toga –
1 – LOTUS PETAL – first timer that doesn’t have a lot to beat
Race 7: 1 1/8 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 41% w2w – PP: Outside In
7 – HEADLINE NUMBERS – ML – build off the debut and this could be a laugher
2 – CENTRAL AVENUE – ginormous step up in only other 2nd start off the bench – same thing here and she makes things interesting
4 – WHOCOULDASKFORMO – been facing by the top comp by far – 1st Lasix helps
5 – STANDOUTSENSATION – who knows what’s to come with this horse – has shown enough talent to run lights out or it could be the lights just might be out
Race 8: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 30% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2-7 Penalty, 8+ Best
1 – DISCO BALL – any horse can win – let’s take a crack with +8 Total Pace, speed on rail
3 – GULFPORT – ML – is the class of the field
5 – KAVOD – as much upside as any in the race – some of his best works prepping
4 – LITTLE VIC – has a Grade III win – switch to Irad in 2nd up
Race 9: 1 1/16 Miles Inner Turf – Bias: Closers, 15% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2+ Fairish with little extra for 4-7
9 – SOLIB – +10 Total Pace Advantage – yet to fire in 4 at Toga though – better in 2nd up?
3 – CAN’T FOOL ME – ML – really consistent performer – going to be closing at the end
10 – IM JUST KIDDIN – took a step forward of at least 5 SP points in a pair of 2nd starts – that would ne more than enough to win
5 – SPOOKY LADY – lone E type that could get the lead at all the other speed is to the outside
Race 10: 5 ½ Furlongs
2 – PRECISELY – going to take a shot here, was the betting FAV in debut in June 2023 – off since – first Lasix as a 3 yo – probably bled – horse that won that race went on to run in Breeders Cup
3 – ARRASOU – probably improves in 2nd up
9 – SEINE – best of the 1sters in my view with back bullet work
7 – SHOP LIFTING – best races off the bench, like today – best published works getting ready
