Saratoga Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free Saratoga Racing Racing Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
Saratoga – 8-29-2024
Race 1
5 – Jus Too Fly – He ran 2nd in his only start, the Breeding suggests he will like the grass, he has a high % winning trainer and a good 3F workout on Aug-23.
8 – Correlation – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey; his Dam has 4 winners from 6 starters and 1 Turf winner and a good 3F workout on Aug-20.
3 – Replevin – He was bumped hard at the start of his debut race and finished poorly in the race, he has a high % trainer and jockey and can improve while trying grass.
Longshot:
9 – Papa’s Nico Boy – He First-time starter whose breeding suggests he will like the grass; he has a trainer who wins 26% of the 2YO races he has a horse in and he has a high % winning jockey.
Race 2-Female
3 – She Caught My Eye – She drops in class today; her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Goldcrest – She drops in class today and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – My First Love – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race and she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Ribot’s Valentine – She drops in class today; she has a high % winning trainer who wins 22% of the claiming races he has a horse running in and she has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
1 – Awesome Annmarie
The 1234 Pick 4
$.50 Pick 4: 3,5,6,7/1,5,7/3,5/8 – Cost $12.00
Contest Pick: #2 – 3
Race 3 -Female
1 – Evaluation – She won in her debut race and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Sweet Anniversary – She has won two races in a row and is now going for a hat trick and she has a good 4F workout Aug-23.
5 – Nolita – She won in her last race at Gulfstream, switches to a high % winning jockey and she has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
2 – Cruise to Catalina – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a bullet 5F workout on Aug-23.
Contest Pick: #1 – 7
Race 4
5 – Sandborn – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Artempus – He drops in class today; best turf speed is fastest among today’s starter and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Hurricane Express – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, he has a high % winning trainer and jockey and blinkers added today.
Longshot:
2 – Mr Flowers – He finished 2nd in his last race only losing by a neck and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Call Protection
Contest Pick: #5 – 3
Race 5-Female
8 – Shesalittle Edgy – She won in her race at Saratoga and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Golden Moonlight – She has a high % winning trainer who wins 17% of the races when shipping a horse to run, she has a high % winning jockey and she has a good 4F workout on Aug-21.
4 – It Takes Heart – She has won two out of three races at Saratoga, drops in class today, she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
6 – Malibu Moonshine – She drops in class today, switches to a high % winning jockey and can improve while returning to a sprint.
Alternate:
3 – Backed by Gold
1 – Hazardous Humor
Contest Pick: #8 -2
The No Favorite Pick 4
$.50 Pick 4: #2,4,6/2,7,9/1,4,9/3,8,9 – Cost $40.50.00
Race 6
8 – Noble Confessor– He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, can improve at the longer distance and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
9 – T Kraft – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, he has the highest last race speed rating he has a high % winning trainer who wins 24% races when taking a horse from a sprint- sprint -route, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a high % winning jockey.
7 – Contrabandist – He finished 4th in his debut race after being bumped at the start, and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
2- Filoso – He finished 4th in his last race, he has a high % winning jockey and has a bullet 5F workout on Aug-22.
Alternate:
3 – Fiddling Felix
1 – American Promise
Contest Pick: #8 – 9
Race 7
9 – Inherent Promise – He finished in the money in his last three races, running 2nd vs similar in last his race and he has a high % winning jockey.
4 – Vintage Vino – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Right to Vote – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, he has a high % winning trainer and jockey and Lasix is added.
Longshot:
8 – Act of Mutiny – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Contest Pick: #1: #9-4
Race 8
1 – Chateau – He won his last race at Saratoga, the rail post is winning at a 19% clip, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie), he has a high % winning trainer who wins 25% of the claiming races he has a horse running in and he has a high % winning jockey.
3 – Hatch – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
9 – Charging Aero – He won his last race at Saratoga and he has high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
8 – Emerald Forest – He has a high % winning jockey and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
Alternate:
10 – Bustin Shout
Contest Pick: #1 -3
The Normal Pick 4
$.50 Pick 4: #1,3,8,9/6,8,9,10/8/2,3,4,5,6,8 – Cost $48.00
Race 9
6 – Skyler’s Starship – He ran 4th in her last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 28% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and has a good 4F workout on Aug-23.
10 – Bob John Ray – He finished in the money in three of her four career races, winning one of the starts and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
8 – Noonzio – He won her debut race at Saratoga and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
9 – Bad Larry – He finished 3rd vs similar in her last race at Saratoga, he has high % winning jockey and he has a good 5F workout on Aug-22.
Alternate:
3 – Two’s a Crowd
Contest Pick: #6- 10
Race 10
8 – Cavallo Bay – He comes in from Europe after winning the last two races, trained by Charlie Appleby who wins 66% of the1st race at a route that he runs a horse in and he has a high % winning jockey.
2 – Without Caution – He won his debut at Saratoga; he has a high % winning jockey and 4F workout on Aug-18.
7 – Zulu Kingdom – He comes in from France after winning his debut race to try Saratoga, and he has high % winning trainer Chad Brown and has high % winning jockey Flavien Prat.
Longshot:
3 – Test Score – He won his debut at Saratoga and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Contest Pick: #8 -2
Bet: $10.00 Win & $20.00 Place: #8
Race 11
2 – Creditworthy – He ran 2nd in his debut race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 28% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and he has a high % winning jockey.
6 – Speed Figures – He ran 2nd vs similar (on Dirt) in his only start, he has the highest last race speed rating, his breeding suggests he will like the grass as his Dam has 3 winners from 5 starters and 1 Turf winner and he has a high % winning jockey.
3 – Summer in Erin – He is a First-time starter whose breeding suggests he will like the grass and the breeding suits today’s sprint distance and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
4 – Call Bob – He ran 2nd (on Dirt) in his last race, his early speed running style helps chances and the shorter distance may really help.
Alternate:
8 – Reverend Moon
Contest Pick: #2 -6
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 10th Race # 8 – Cavallo Bay
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 5 ½ Furlongs Turf – Bias: Stalkers, 25% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair
1 – SKY MASTERSON – last race on turf work be more than good enough
9 – PAPA’S NICO BOY – 1st timer without much to beat
8 – CORRELATION – speed and fade in debut – more stamina with 2nd race improvement
5 – JUS TOO FLY – went way wide in last – a better start and position helps his chances
Race 2: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 35% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Penalty, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Bad
4 – MON PETIT CHOU – best chance to go w2w, 3rd up, Toga 2/0-2-0
7 – GOLDCREST – ML – class dropper in third up, better ATB and Irad rides
5 – MY FIRST LOVE – 3rd after a layoff – was by far the best of the cycle in last
3 – SHE CAUGHT MY EYE – has the most back class and drops in class
Race 3: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 41% w2w – PP: Outside In, Rail Stinks – Beware
1 – EVALUATION – ML – any improvement from debut and it’s a walkaway win – rail stinks is issue
2 – CRUISE TO CATALINA – repeat of debut wins, works since last are hot – bounce back?
7 – SWEET ANNIVERSARY – hasn’t been challenged at FLAKES, decent enough works at Toga to consider
5 – NOLITA – less races and better performances than the 6
Race 4: 1 1/16 Miles Inner Turf – Bias: Closers, 14% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, Rest a touch under Par
4 – CALL PROTECTION – take your pick with the 3 for the top of ticket – less races + more upside
3 – ARTEMPUS – ML – MSW dropper in 2nd up, sizeable step forward in 2nd career race – same move today could be a winner
7 – STEADFAST RESOLVE – MSW dropper that’s as good as any of the others that have already lost in the MCL ranks
5 – SANDBORN – tough call over the 1 – but beat the 1 last out and could continue to improve
Race 5: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 31% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2-7 Penalty, 8+ Best
4 – IT TAKES HEART – most back class – best TOGA #s and it isn’t close 3/2-0-0
8 – SHESALITTLE EDGY – ML – most consistent in the race – should be in it from gate to wire
3 – BACKED BY GOLD – 2nd up record says a big bounce up is on tap
6 – MALIBU MOONSHINE – sizable drop in class – be much better if somehow the track gets wet
Race 6: 1 Mile – Bias: Stalkers, 31% w2w – PP: Inside Out
2 – FILOSO – 2nd race improvement, bullet workout since – why not at a price
7 – CONTRABANDIST – another 2nder – could get overlooked
8 – NOBLE CONFESSOR – ML – probable favorite – another with 2nd race improvement being enough
9 – T KRAFT – just missed at this level last out – not sure going longer is the answer after giving up a big lead at 6 1/2f
Race 7: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Bias: Stalkers, 14% w2w – PP: Rail No Good – Outside In
4 – VINTAGE VINO – only with a PAR race in the field – last – had to check or would already graduated
2 – WHEELHOUSE – 2.85 firster with a back bullet work
5 – CIAO CHUCK – too much speed and Q30 to pass at a price and great chance to go w2w
9 – INHERENT PROMISE – ML – 2x Chris P angle – last at Saratoga
Race 8: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 31% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2-7 Penalty, 8+ Best
Any Horse Can Win this race
9 – CHARGING AERO – all sorts of issues and still won last out
1 – CHATEAU/1A AFTERNOON HEAT – ML – either of the entries can win – but odds will be low
8 – EMERALD FOREST – claim and drop for a horse with some of the most back class
10 – BUSTIN SHOUT – effective at Toga 2/1-0-1 – same SPA scores as the entry combo
Race 9: 1 Mile – Bias: Stalkers, 31% w2w – PP: Inside Out
8 – NOONZIO – 2nd race improvement puts him in the winners circle – bumped, wide and still eased at the end – has a lot more
6 – SKYLER’S STARSHIP – ML – smoked the field in his lone TOGA start – electric LP at times
10 – BOB JOHN RAY – expecting a career best today in second up
9 – BAD LARRY – Toga 4/0-0-3 – much safer pick on an off track
Race 10: 1 1/16 Miles Inner Turf – Bias: Closers, 14% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, Rest a touch under Par
7 – ZULU KINGDOM – debut win at a top French track – 3rd place horse came back to win next out – turf breeding off the chart vs these
9 – TENACIOUS LEADER – Pletcher wants this on turf – moved to dirt last out – heavy fav in both – no way you get 10-1
8 – CAVALLO BAY – ML – another foreign invader – mid level English tracks – but horses he’s faced came back to win next out too
3 – TEST SCORE – tough call over the ML fav – but I think the move from a sprint to a route fits
Race 11: 5 ½ Furlongs Turf – Bias: Stalkers, 25% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair
2 – CREDITWORTHY – ML -first two are obvious choices on 2nd race improvement
6 – SPEED FIGURES
9 – LIBERTE DE BAYEUX – top breeding, back bullet – gets to the lead with Kendrick and lookout
5 – INK LIES – can you ever overlook Wesley Ward in a short turf sprint? Jockey Choice is curios – a tell?
