Saratoga Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free Saratoga Racing Racing Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
Race 2-Female
5 – Refuse to Lose – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, she is a closer who can improve at the longer distance and she has a high % winning trainer.
2 – Save Time – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 29% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again, and she has a high % winning jockey.
1 – Fade to Grey – She can improve while trying dirt, blinkers are added today and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
3- Goodnight My Angel – She can improve while trying dirt and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Race 3 -Female
1 – Vehemente – She is a first–time starter whose Sire wins 44% with 1st time Starters, her Dam has 3 winners from 4 starters and she has a bullet 4F workout on Jul-11.
5 – Pawtucketshuffle – She is a first–time starter whose Sire wins 25% with 1st time Starters, her Dam has 1 winner from 1 starter and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Practically Summer – She is a first–time starter whose Sire wins 16% with 1st time Starters, her Dam has 3 winners from 4 starters and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and a good 4F workout on Jul-06.
Longshot:
3 – Lightning Mama – She is a first–time starter whose Sire wins 17% with 1st time Starters, her Dam has 1 winner from 3 starters and her breeding suits today’s sprint distance.
Alternate:
2- Bubbe Dearest
4 – Trail of Gold
$.50 Pick 4: #1,2,3,4,5,6/5,8/10,11 /1,2,9,12 – Cost $48.00
Race 4-Female
8 – Malu – She drops in class today, Switches to a high % jockey and she has high % winning trainer who wins 33% of the races when taking a horse Down 2+ classes.
5 – Sharper Gal – She finished 6th in her last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 19% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again, has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and she has high % winning jockey.
3 – Permed – She drops in class today, will improve while returning to dirt and she has high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Dashing Della – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, she has the highest last race speed rating (tie), has a high % winning jockey and she has a bullet 3F workout on Jul-12.
Alternate:
6 – Pebble Lane
Race 5-Female
11 – Ichiban – She won her last race at Aqueduct and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
10 – Value Area – She finished in the money in eight races of her last nine starts, drops in class today and she has a high % winning trainer.
1 – A Primera Vista – She has a high % winning trainer and jockey and today’s distance is her wheelhouse winning three races out of four starts.
Longshot:
5 – Promiseher America – She ran 2nd in her last race and she has a high % winning trainer.
Race 6-Female
12 – Barstool Babe – She drops in class today, has high % winning trainer and she switches to a high % winning jockey.
2 – Hue – She drops in class today, has a Dam, has 1 winner from 3 starters and has a high % winning trainer who wins 33% of the races when taking a horse from a maiden to a maiden claiming race.
9 – Street View – She drops in class today, has the highest last race speed rating has a high % winning trainer who wins 23% of the races when taking a horse from a maiden to a maiden claiming race.
Longshot:
1 – Lady Reigns– She is a first-time starter whose breeding suits today’s sprint distance and she has a high % winning trainer.
$.50 Pick 4: 1,2,9,12/9,10 /1,2,5,8/1A,4,15 – Cost $48.00
Race 7-Female
10 – Theresasilverlinin – She has finished in the money in eight races of her nine career starts, winning five of the races and she has high % winning trainer and jockey.
9 – She Caught My Eye – She finished in the money in seven races of her last eight starts, drops in class today and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
5 – Deck of Cards – She won her last four races and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and a good 4F workout on Jul-10.
Longshot:
1 – I’m Buzzy – She is always in the mix finishing in the money in her last eight races, winning four of the starts and she has high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
4 – She’s Awesome
8 – Icy Reply
Bet: $20.00 Win: # 10- $2.00 Exacta: 10/5,9
Race 8-Female
5 – Cap Ferrat – She won her debut race; she has the highest last race speed rating and her breeding suggests she will like the grass.
2 – Sohana – She has finished in the money in five races of her six career starts, winning five of the races and she has high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Tour Jete – She ran 2nd in her last race and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Baroness Bourbon – She finished poorly in her last race after experiencing trouble but finished 2nd in the race before and she has high % winning jockey.
Race 9
15 – Maturity Date – She ran 2nd vs tougher (on Dirt) in last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 23% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again, drops in class today and she has a high % winning jockey.
4 – The Taco Lady – She drops in class today; she has the highest last race speed rating has a high % winning trainer who wins 20% of the races when taking a horse from a maiden to a maiden claiming race and she has a high % winning jockey.
1A – Thedreamcontinues – She is a first-time starter; she has a high % winning trainer and she has a good 5F workout (Jul-07).
Longshot:
5 – Looking for Ginny – She switches to a high % winning jockey and drops in class today.
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 7th Race
10 – Theresasilverlinin
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: Cancelled
Race 2: 1 1/8 Miles – Bias: 4 Races, Early Speed, 2 w2w – PP: 2 From Rail and 2 from 8+
5 – REFUSE TO LOSE – left arrow horse, could be pacesetter and has LS to boot
1 – FADE TO GREY – 2nd race improvement would be borderline Par – a little better and is at least as good as the rest at a better price
2 – SAVE TIME – Irad on the most experienced horse – is what she is?
3 – GOODNIGHT MY ANGEL – good chance to be better in the 2nd up
Race 3: 5 ½ Furlongs – Bias: 2 Races, 1 w2w, 1 closer – PP: both from the Rail
3 – LIGHTNING MAMA – 3/3 First Timer – June 13th Toga work was good
1 – VEHEMENTE – Bullet and Go horse – 4f in 46 is fast
5 – PAWTUCKETSHUFFLE – this and the 6 both get the same score, but this one has some faster works and higher odds
6 – PRACTICALLY SUMMER
Race 4: 7 Furlongs – Bias: 8 Races, Early Speed, 4 w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2/3 Best, 4-7 Discount, 8+ None
5 – SHARPER GAL – Q30%er – left arrow horse
1 – DASHING DELLA – let’s take a shot here – better ATB in last, faster fractions and 2nd up record says a little better today
8 – MALU – class dropper that just needs to run back two races
3 – PERMED – Pletcher horse taking a big drop – looking to sell more than to win?
Race 5: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – OFF
11 – ICHIBAN – ran on Saratoga dirt 3 times and won them all
1 – A PRIMERA VISTA – right distance -4/3-0-0 – surface is concern for the likely pacesetter
5 – PROMISEHER AMERICA – the 10 might be the better horse, but this one has the most back class and upside
10 – VALUE AREA
Race 6: 5 ½ Furlongs Turf – OFF – 5 ½ Furlongs – Bias: 2 Races, 1 w2w, 1 closer – PP: both from the Rail
1 – LADY REIGNS -really wish she wasn’t debuting in MCL – but those early June Toga works say she is fast
2 – HUE – with an 2nd race improvement – could make easy work of most of these
9 – STREET VIEW – definitely most consistent – lone dirt trip not so good
12 – BARSTOOL BABE – Linda Rice & Jose Ortiz versus a bunch of mids
Race 7: 7 Furlongs – Bias: 8 Races, Early Speed, 4 w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2/3 Best, 4-7 Discount, 8+ None
10 – THERESASILVERLININ – GREEN GO and +7 TOTAL PACE
5 – DECK OF CARDS – hopefully gets overlooked – $215k horse – finally healthy? – upped speed figure 13 points the only time she made it two in a row – 13 points today and it’s an EZ win
7 – OBRIGADA -one of the biggest class droppers – terrible race last out – bullet work on July 2nd and switch to Irad – going to be better today
4 – SHE’S AWESOME – very consistent class dropper where most of her races put her in contention
Race 8: 1 Mile Inner Turf – OFF
5 – CAP FERRAT – if she is any better at all in the second up she should go wire to wire
2 – SOHANA – could be lone E horse if she gets forward – just needs to run back two races
6 – BARONESS BOURBON – best two race with Dylan Davis riding with a win and second by a nose
4 – MY SHEA D LADY – won her two longest races – both wins – this is the longest of career
Race 9: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – OFF
The 15 is likely to be a big Favorite – but I’m going to take two cracks at beating her
1A – THEDREAMCONTINUES – first time with a back bullet in May 28th and the maintenance works since are still really good, classic 5f work in her last
4 – THE TACO LADY – on the lead with Kendrick, lightly raced, PURE MSW dropper
15 – MATURITY DATE – going to be your big FAVORITE – Irad, Linda Rice in the 3rd up, class drop and TLRSP#+5
2 – LUNA LOVE – has hit par at this level and should be closing – ITM horse
