It’s a high-class day of racing at Sha Tin, featuring the SA SA Ladies’ Purse and a strong supporting card. 22 to 1 Tom and Rich deliver their combined analysis, offering race-by-race picks, sharp insights, and betting value across Hong Kong’s best Sunday card.
RACE 6 – SUISSE PROGRAMME HANDICAP (2:35 AM ET)
22 to 1 Tom’s Picks
4 – Szeryng
This is his first start of the season, and he came out of the last race with issues. He’s had three barrier trials and won two of them, and ran third, by a neck, in the other race. He’s only won once, and this level suits him again for his return. He gets Zac in the saddle, which is always a plus.
2 – Voyage Boss
In his first start of the season, he ran fourth after some trouble and then did a good job kicking on for home. He has had a barrier trial since that race and finished second by a neck. He is sitting on a big effort today.
7 – Incredible Moment
He may be the lone speed in the race and has a good draw in five. He ran second last time out, setting the pace and coming under pressure at the end. This is the third time up for him, and he should make a good account of himself against that group.
Rich’s Picks
7 – Incredible Moment – last race was better than finish – more than a second faster
1 – Jubilant Winner – won the last two first up efforts
10 – Great Spirit – was a lot better in his last – about 2 seconds faster
9 – Good Chap – signs of life in last and a decent work between
RACE 7 – THE SA SA LADIES’ PURSE (3:05 AM ET)
22 to 1 Tom’s Picks
1 – Beauty Joy
On paper, he’s the best horse in the race off a third-place finish last time out in a group two at first asking. He is a dead closer, so he needs a good trip from draw number ten. Last time, he had drawn fourteen. With a clear run, he should win even carrying top weight.
13 – Californiatotality
He has two starts this season and just missed running second last time out in a class two race at Happy Valley. He gets a big weight break and will show some speed from the third post position. He runs well at this distance with three wins and two seconds from seven starts. I think, based on his current form, he’s good enough to place in the money.
2 – Chancheng Glory
He entered this race after a layoff and a second finish in a Group Three race. He has three barrier trials, all on the all-weather surface, and only one strong performance. He’s won on debut but has only won once from six attempts at this distance, though he has finished in the money three times. He might need a race to reach his best, but he can definitely hold his own here.
Rich’s Picks
1 – Beauty Joy – drops from a G2 – catching more distance in the 2nd up – faster 1m time
13 – Californiatotality – should be better in the 2nd up – strong at the distance 7/3-2-0
11 – Bundle Award – boom or bust here – winner 7/16 races and a trio of 3rd – last was bad
4 – Cap Ferrat – Tom horse – win, most likely not, ITM good chance in 2nd up and drop
RACE 8 – ELIZABETH ARDEN HANDICAP (3:40 AM ET)
22 to 1 Tom’s Picks
6 – Strathpeffer
He ran into a fast pace last time out and won going away as the favorite. He’s run one barrier trial since that race and finished fourth by half a length. With the three-post position, he should be able to get a good position to unleash a strong closing kick again.
8 – Excel Wongchoy
He didn’t show much in his first start of the season, but ran on for third last time out with a troubled run. Is he finally going to run a few good races in a row? I think so at good odds. Jockey change is positive.
7 – Young Bravo
He didn’t do himself any favors in the last race, but had a slow start and a fast finish behind Strathpeffer. This is his third career start, and after the previous race, he needs a better break to win. His barrier trial coming into this race was nothing special.
Rich’s Picks
1 – Etalon Or – good run in his last and a maintenance work between
11 – Positive Smile – a little faster in his last
7 – Young Bravo – a lot better in his second start – another move up fits
10 – Better And Better – Zac Purton and always close at the end
RACE 9 – NEOGENCE HANDICAP (4:15 AM ET)
22 to 1 Tom’s Picks
13 – Lucky Sam Gor
He moved up in class after two wins from the twelfth and fourteenth post positions. He improved from the second race to his last. It’s not like the horse wasn’t running well before, just not winning, with two thirds and one second in the previous races.
2 – Little Paradise
He’s been running well overall with a win last time out at this level at 1200m. He’s never run a 1400m race but comes in off a barrier trial win on the all-weather and gets Zac. He’s won from the lead and coming from far back, and today’s draw suggests it will be far back again.
11 – Tin Fook
After a poor debut, he’s run third in the last two races with issues. He returns at the same distance and wins in his barrier trial. I think he will continue to improve.
Rich’s Picks
1 – Juneau Pride – how do you get around ITM 9/10 vs this field?
2 – Little Paradise – four of his five races are good enough to win here
12 – Pray For Justice – 2nd race upside, $2 fav in winning debut – carrying 9 less pounds
4 – Anode – rarely makes a start without a work between – get him out when he’s hot
RACE 10 – SANTA MONICA HANDICAP (4:50 AM ET)
22 to 1 Tom’s Picks
10 – Shanwah
I usually don’t take on first-time starters in Hong Kong, except at the highest levels, and this one falls at the top. He is a group two winner at a longer distance than today’s race against 3-year-olds at Rosehill and has been racing at the top level. They are starting him at a distance he’s never raced before, and he has shown little in two barrier trials. However, I am going to take a chance to see if the jockey finally gets his first win of the season.
12 – Beauty Crescent
He draws inside position and has the tactical speed to set the pace in this race. He’s won his last three races running from a slow pace to a swift pace. He advances up to the next class but retains the speed to rerun a top race.
2 – Light Years Charm
He blew the start last time, and the result was a seventh-place finish after four wins in a row. He has a good draw and Zac to get a good start and position to chase them down at the end. He will come from far back.
Rich’s Picks
10 – Shanwah – G1 dropper – good, yes 5/3-0-1 – distance been tough 0/2
2 – Light Years Charm – Zac Purton again – strong at the distance 9/4-1-1
8 – Steps Ahead – ITM 5/5 at the distance
9 – Chiu Chow Spirit – another Tom horse, win – unlikely, ITM with a late run
Sha Tin’s Sunday card looks tailor-made for sharp bettors who can identify improving horses and strong second-up performers. Zac Purton figures prominently across multiple races, and pace dynamics may favor those capable of sitting just off the speed and finishing strongly late. Between 22 to 1 Tom’s barrier-trial insights and Rich’s data-driven pace analysis, the day’s plays mix proven class with value opportunities. Keep an eye on Beauty Joy in Race 7 and Light Years Charm in the finale—they both have the setup to deliver winning runs.
