We head to sunny Tampa Bay Downs for a 9-race card under warm conditions — the kind of day where form holds, pace matters, and smart positioning makes the difference. Rich and Terry break down the entire card with a full slate of insights, including: 🏇 Race-by-race analysis of all 9 races 🔥 Benny and the Bets angles 🎯 Terry’s Best Bet 📊 Pick 4 structure and sequence logic 💡 Pace flow, trip scenarios, and value profiles Tampa’s surface and configuration reward horses with tactical speed and clean trips — and today’s conditions set up beautifully for a sharp read of the card. Sun, speed, and smart racing — let’s go to work at Tampa Bay Downs.
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Terry’s Picks
Tampa Bay Downs – 1-07-26
Race 1-Female
2 – Jassai – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Shabam – Likes Tampa Bay, finishing in the money in 50% of the races; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – One Violent Affair – Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters; Has a high-percentage winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
4 – E M’s Treasuregirl – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; She has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
3 – Strand of Gold
1 – Once an Eagle
Race 2-Female
5 – Factorbella – Won last race at Tampa Bay Downs; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey; Likes the distance.
2 – Win N Your In: Drops in class today; Highest speed figure at today’s distance; Has a high % winning jockey.
4 – Poiema – Won last race at Tampa Bay Downs; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters; she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Immortallove – Finished 3rd in last race; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 17% of the allowance races.
Alternate:
3 – It’s Goodtobe Jose
6 – Summer’s Comin
$.50 Pick 4: 2,5/1,4/2,3,4,5,7/2,3,4,6,9 – Cost $50.00
Race 3
4 – The Best Distance – Won last race at Tampa Bay Downs; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters; Has a high % winning and jockey.
1 – St. Louie Louie – Won last race at Tampa Bay Downs; Has a high % winning trainer.
2 – Fort Charles– Finished in the money in 7 races out of the last 10 starts, winning 2 races; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Action Seeker – Finished 2nd in last race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Hari – Finished 3rd in last race; The trainer wins 19% in second race after layoff.
7 – Crypto Man
$.50 Pick 4: 1,4/3,4,5,7/3,4,6,9/1,5,8 – Cost $48.00
Bet: $40.00 Win: 4 – $10.00 Exacta Box:1/4 – $10.00 Exacta: 4/1,2,3,6
Race 4
7 – Arrogancy: Drops in class; trained by a 22% winner after losing as favorite; has the best speed at this distance and fastest dirt speed today.
4 – God With Us – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Can improve at the shorter distance; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Alarik – Drops in class today with the highest last race speed rating; has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Metaphor – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race and likes the distance.
Alternate:
2 – Mendello
Race 5
4 – Flag Officer – Finished in the money in 2 races out of the last 3 starts; Has a high % winning jockey; Can go the distance.
9 – Alrasikh – Highest speed figure at today’s distance; Best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters; Good 4F workout (Dec-27).
6 – So So – Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Mr Business – Has a high % winning jockey; Best turf speed is faster than the Avg Winning Speed.
Alternate:
2 – Silver Punch
Race 6-Female
1 – Ship It – Finished in the money in 7 races out of the last 8 starts, winning 2 races; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Easy Come Easy Go: Drops in class today; Switches to a high % winning jockey.
8 – Timely Reward – Won 1 race out of 2 starts at Tampa Bay Downs; Finished in the money in 100% of the starts at today’s distance.
Longshot:
7 – Novellie – Won last race at Tampa Bay Downs by 8-lenghts; She has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Lizzie Baby
3 – Thee New Beginning
$.50 Pick 4: 1,5/1,4,6,9/4,6,7/2,4,7,8 – Cost $48.00
Race 7
1 – Fortunate Ryder – Won last race at Tampa Bay Downs; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Six Fortyfive – Finished in the money in 3 races out of the last 4 starts, winning 1 race; Has a high % winning jockey.
2 – War of Destiny – Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
9 – Silver Ore – Won last race at Tampa Bay Downs; Has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
6 – Daboom
3 – Laird of Magnolia
Race 8-Female
4 – More Vino Rosa – Finished 3rd vs similar in only start; Lasix added; trainer and jockey have high win rates.
6 – Norwegian Wood: Finished 3rd in only start; Trained by a high-percentage trainer.
7 – Questnbled’cisions – Finished 3rd in last 2 races; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters; Trained by a high-percentage trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Holy Spicy – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Has a high % winning trainer and switches to a high-percentage jockey.
Alternate:
2 – Our Lady Donna
8 – Country Embrace
Race 9-Female
2 – Bahamian Moon – Likes Tampa Bay, finishing in the money in 69% of the races, winning 23% of the starts; Can go the distance, finishing in the money in 71% of the races, winning 19% of the starts.
7 – Duboff: Finished in the money in 5 races out of the last 8 starts, winning 3 races; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
8 – Speightful Sis – Has an early foot so the cutback in distance will be a plus; Highest speed figure at today’s distance; Best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
4 – So Sophia – Finished in the money in 4 races out of the last 5 starts, winning 3 races; Has a high % winning jockey; Likes the distance.
Alternate:
3 – Explosive Lady
1 – True Spun
Best Bet of the Day at Aqueduct – 3rd Race – #4 – The Best Distance
Rich’s Picks
Race 1: 1 Mile 40 Yards – Bias: Early Speed, 14% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Discount, 4-7 Best, 8+ Small Discount
2 – JASSAI – TLRSP#+6 as the SIM FAV – maybe better in 3rd up
5 – SHABAM – probably the most consistent – another in the 3rd up – Left Arrow pacesetter
3 – STRAND OF GOLD – probably better in the 2nd start at TB after track dropping from GP
7 – ONE VIOLENT AFFAIR – some speed with the TOP C ZONE by far
Race 2: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 29% w2w – PP: Rail Stinks, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Best, 8+ Almost Fair
2 – WIN N YOUR IN – SIM FAV – speed and fade in 1st up – resume says better in 2nd up
4 – POIEMA – TLRSP#+4 and possible pacesetter – finally healthy making 2 starts in a row for the first time in years
5 – FACTORBELLA – ITM 6/7 at TB and has run against better for sure
3 – IT’S GOODTOBE JOSE – should be better in 2nd up – Top C ZONE
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,4,5/4,6/3,4,5,7/3,4,8,9
Race 3: 1 Mile 40 Yards – Bias: Early Speed, 14% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Discount, 4-7 Best, 8+ Small Discount
4 – THE BEST DISTANCE – TLRSP#+4 – SIM FAV and Top TOTAL PACE +7
1 – ST. LOUIE LOUIE – win his first race a TB in last – going for 2 in a row – resume says better in round 2 off the bench
6 – ACTION SEEKER – moving up the speed ladder and better ATB
7 – CRYPTO MAN – tough call over the 3 – but maybe more upside on the track switch
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,4/3,4,5,7/3,4,9/3,4,5,8
Race 4: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 29% w2w – PP: Rail Stinks, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Best, 8+ Almost Fair
5 – METAPHOR – much better from the middle out on his last – maintenance work since
3 – ALARIK – TLRSP# +6 – SIM FAV and Top TOTAL PACE
4 – GOD WITH US – should be the pacesetter with nearly a 2 length EP edge
7 – ARROGANCY – drops after better EP and beaten fav in 2nd up
Race 5: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Bias: Closers, 21% w2w – PP: Rail Bad, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Best, 8+ Discount
9 – ALRASIKH – should be better in round 2 off the bench
4 – FLAG OFFICER – tough race in his first try at TB – cleaner trip for the SIM FAV
3 – MR BUSINESS – YES horse coming in from GP – been off for a bit – plenty of works to be fit
8 – METAL CHURCH – Top TOTAL PACE and you have to give him a try in just the 3rd race
$0.50 Trifecta: 3,4,9/2,3,4,8,9/2,3,4,7,8,9
Race 6: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 21% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Best
5 – EASY COME EASY GO – biggest class dropper and SIM FAV
3 – THEE NEW BEGINNING – has come off the bench hot at TB before – winning by 7 at this level – out front there and here too
8 – TIMELY REWARD – Should be on the pace as Top TOTAL PACE
4 – LIZZIE BABY – TLRSP# +4 – big race – faster despite going longer – pairs good races
$0.50 Pick 4: 3,4,5,8/2,4,6,10/4,6,7/2,7
Race 7: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Bias: Closers, 21% w2w – PP: Rail Bad, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Best, 8+ Discount
4 – SIX FORTYFIVE – lots of upside from his last race – distance 2/0-2-0
6 – DABOOM – TLRSP# +4 – strong in last, CV says better in 3 of 3 second up starts
10 – WESTHAMPTON – SIM FAV track dropping from GP – numbers almost always go up
2 – WAR OF DESTINY – out front with almost a 2 length ES edge – tough call over the 1
$0.50 Trifecta: 4,6,10/1,2,4,6,10/1,2,4,6,9,10
Race 8: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 21% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Best
6 – NORWEGIAN WOOD – 2nd race upside – 3rd as the 3/2 Fav in Debut
7 – QUESTNBLED’CISIONS – YES horse (with the 5) – either of her last 2 works
4 – MORE VINO ROSA – speed and fade in debut – 1st Lasix helps – 2nd race upside
5 – GREAT ACTRESS – the other YES Horse
$5 Exacta Key Box: 6/4,5,7,9
Race 9: 5 Furlongs Turf – Bais: 1 Race – won from Shotgun – PP: 4-7
7 – DUBOFF – definitely has some early pop – cut back from a mile helps distance
2 – BAHAMIAN MOON – rerun of last race would be enough
4 – SO SOPHIA – drops in class, YES horse and SIM FAV
9 – OH DARLIN – another YES horse – tries TB for the 1st time
$2 Exacta Key Box: 7/2,4,9
