We’ve got 9 races at Tampa Bay Downs with the surfaces listed as fast dirt and hard turf — and this could turn into a hot track kind of day. When the dirt is tight and the turf is firm, races can play quicker, and positioning becomes everything. Speed can get dangerous, especially if horses secure clean trips early. Today’s card sets up with: Dirt races where tactical speed could control the flow Turf races where firm ground favors sharper finishing kicks Spots where favorites may simply be too tough Others where pace pressure could open the door to value On the show: 🎯 Terry’s Best Bet 💵 Bennie and the Bets ($100 strategy) 🔁 Pick 4 sequences 📊 Smart Sheets edge featuring TOTAL PACE, PAR+, C ZONE, TLRSP#, and pace pressure modeling If the track heats up, we’ll identify who benefits most — and who may struggle late. Nine races. Fair surfaces. Opportunity if we read it right. Drop your Best Bet below before first post and let’s take advantage of the conditions. 🏇💰
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Terry’s Picks
Tampa Bay Downs – 4-01-26
Race 1
5 – All the Luck – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Has a high % winning jockey.
9 – Johnny Bolt – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Has a high % winning jockey.
2 – Playing With Fire – Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
4 – Fire Baron – Drops in class today; Can improve while returning to dirt; Switches to a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
11 – Arrow Ghost
Race 2-Female
3 – Vesper Chicks – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters; Trainer and jockey have high win rates.
8 – Tinkatwo – Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race; Likes the distance.
1 – Miss Uproar – Has won 1 race out of 3 starts at PARX Racing; Has high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
4 – Awesome Sunshine – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Highest last race speed rating (tie).
Alternate:
7 – Ain’t Noncents
5 – Maca Abarrio
$.50 Pick 4: 1,3,8/1,2,4,6/4,5,6,8/1,2 – Cost $48.00
Race 3
6 – Fit to Fire – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Breath Deeply – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Can go the distance.
2 – Chequera – Won last race at Tampa Bay Downs; Likes the distance.
Longshot:
1 – Mongolian Champ – Has a trainer who wins 17% of the Sprints; Best dirt speed is faster than the Avg Winning Speed.
Alternate:
8 – K Paz
3 – Westminster
$.50 Pick 4: 2,4,6/5,6,8/1,2/5,6,7,8,9 – Cost $45.00
Race 4-Female
8 – Modern Miss – Can improve while returning to dirt; Trainer wins 17% of the dirt starts; Jockey have high win rates.
6 – Cajun Hottie – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
5 – Volamo – Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
4 – Grenache – Switches to a high % winning jockey; Trainer wins 18% of the Maiden Claiming starts.
Alternate:
1 – Heybabyyougotit
2 – Ivey My Love
Race 5-Female
1 – British Empress – Third last out vs similar on dirt; returns to turf, where improvement is possible. Trainer wins 66% with dirt-to-turf moves; jockey also has a strong win rate.
2 – Sugar Magnolia – Drops in class today; tied for fastest speed rating last race; trainer and jockey have strong win percentages.
4 – Enchant: Drops in class today; Best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
9 – Lilys Back: Switches to a high % winning jockey; Bullet 4F workout (Mar-24).
Alternate:
7 – Aibell
8 – Magica
Race 6
7 – Rolling On – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race, winning 1 race; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 43% of the races in the 1st start after claiming; Has a high % winning jockey.
5 – Elusive d’Oro – Likes Tampa Bay Downs, finishing in the money in 67% of the races, winning 22% of the starts; can handle the distance, finishing in the money in 78% of the races, winning 17% of the starts.
6 – Ikigai – Finished in the money 5 of the last 6 starts, winning 2 races; Highest speed figure at today’s distance; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
8 – Harper’s Afleet – Finished in the money 3 of the last 4 starts, winning 2 races; Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
1 – Awesome Fantasy
$.50 Pick 4: 5,6,7,8,9/4,8/4,6/3,4,5,8,9 – Cost $50.00
Race 7
4 – Thirsted – Ran 2nd vs tougher in last race; Best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters; Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
8 – Double Miles –Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Magnus Gold – Trainer and jockey have strong win percentages.
Longshot:
3 – Chance On Me – Finished 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in last race; May improve while returning to Turf.
Alternate:
5 – Reagan’s Renegade
Bet: $20.00 Win: 4 – $10.00 Exacta Box:4/8 – $10.00 Exacta: 4/1,3,8 – $5.00 Exacta Box: 1,4,8
Race 8-Female
4 – Dominant Diva – Finished in the money in 4 races out of 6 career starts, winning 1 race; Highest speed figure at today’s distance; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters; Trainer and jockey have high win rates.
6 – Princess Vera – Won last race at Tampa Bay Downs; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Silent Dreamer: Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
2 – Hot Dance: Placed in 80% and won 20% of races at Tampa Bay Downs; placed in 74% and won 26% at this distance.
Alternate:
5 – Bahamian Moon
8 – Thelastbulletsmine
Race 9-Female
3 – Cocktail Kisses – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Highest speed figure at today’s distance; Jockey have high win rates.
4 – Major Mayhem – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Has a high % winning trainer.
8 – D’argento Bolt: Finished in the money in 2 races out of 3 starts at Tampa Bay Downs, winning 1 race; Has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
9 – Big Lous Messenger: Drops in class today; High %winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
5 – Awesome Campaign
Best Bet of the Day at Tampa Bay Downs – 7th Race – #4 – Thirsted
Rich’s Picks
Race 1: 6 Furlongs – Early Speed, 35% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Almost Fair
5 – ALL THE LUCK – YES Horse – Paco! SIM FAV – Top PAR+ and C ZONE Standout
9 – JOHNNY BOLT – TLRSP#+3 and could be better in the 3rd up
2 – PLAYING WITH FIRE – SIM SPEED# +5 and Top TOTAL PACE +7 – better EP/FRACTIONS drops – decent works
4 – FIRE BARON – YES horse has been off more than a year – decent works
$0.50 Trifecta: 2,4,5,9/2,5,9/2,4,5,6,9,11
Race 2: 7 Furlongs – Early Speed, 24% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2-7 Fair, 8+ Best
3 – VESPER CHICKS – could be the pacesetter – a little faster last out – 5 ways better
1 – MISS UPROAR – last race was better than it looks – Paco! – Top TOTAL PACE
8 – TINKATWO – SIM FAV and could be better in the 2nd up – drops
2 – BETTER HAVE CASH – 3rd up – drops and offers value
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,3/2,4,6,8/1,2,5,6/2,4,9
Race 3: 7 Furlongs – Early Speed, 24% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2-7 Fair, 8+ Best
6 – FIT TO FIRE – SIM FAV and could offer a little value – by far best PAR+
4 – BREATH DEEPLY – proper distance 7/1-3-1 in 19 others 19/0-1-3
8 – K PAZ – biggest in race edge +6 LP – steady performer
2 – CHEQUERA – 3sp# increases and should be on the lead – 3rd up
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,4,6,8/1,2,5,6/2,4,9/4,7
Race 4: 7 Furlongs – Early Speed, 24% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2-7 Fair, 8+ Best
1 – HEYBABYYOUGOTIT – 2nd race upside past par – 1st Lasix and biggest dropper – strong work
6 – CAJUN HOTTIE – YES horse – SIM FAV and Top TOTAL PACE
2 – IVEY MY LOVE – Longshot YES horse with value – rerun the last works
5 – VOLAMO – first time making the 3rd start for the first time – boom or bust
$5 Exacta Key Box: 1/2,5,6,8
Race 5: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Closers, 28% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2-7 Bonus, 8+ Discount
2 – SUGAR MAGNOLIA – better EP/FRACTIONS and drops with Top TOTAL PACE
4 – ENCHANT – if any is to go wire to wire – this is her – +8 EP and top C ZONE
9 – LILYS BACK – Gulfstream and one of the biggest class droppers too
1 – BRITISH EMPRESS – legit chance to be better in the 2nd up – best races on Turf
$5 Exacta Key Box: 2/1,4,8,9
Race 6: 6 Furlongs – Early Speed, 35% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Best, 8+ Almost Fair
7 – ROLLING ON – trainer won 7/16 1st after a claim – tons better EP and could really pop in in 2nd up
4 – MEGAN’S HONOR – winner 2 in a row – top PAR+ by a little – worried about regression
8 – HARPER’S AFLEET – any horse – with VALUE – tr hits at 26% 2nd after the claim
5 – ELUSIVE D’ORO – Paco – Top TOTAL PACE – last race better than it looks – same final time
$0.50 Pick 4: 4,5,7,8/4,3,8/4,5/3,4,8,9
Race 7: 1 Mile Turf – Closers, 21% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2-7 Bonus, 8+ Discount
4 – THIRSTED – TLRSP# +10 and drops in class after just missing in his last
8 – DOUBLE MILES – the only other YES horse with the 4 – SIM FAV
3 – CHANCE ON ME – standout C ZONE only above 50%
1 – MAGNUS GOLD – SIM SPEED# FAV – might have the best late legs
Race 8: 6 Furlongs – Early Speed, 35% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Best, 8+ Almost Fair
4 – DOMINANT DIVA – has by far the best back class – only 2nd up for the 2nd time
5 – BAHAMIAN MOON – TLRSP#+3 and Top TOTAL PACE +5 – SIM FAV
2 – HOT DANCE – pretty consistent performer – faster despite going longer – cut back helps
8 – THELASTBULLETSMINE – Paco! And has a standout C ZONE
Race 9: 1 Mile Turf – Closers, 21% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2-7 Bonus, 8+ Discount
3 – COCKTAIL KISSES – super steady, low ceiling/high floor type
8 – D’ARGENTO BOLT – right distance – 6/1-3-0 – others 10/0-1-1 – Paco!
4 – MAJOR MAYHEM – 4SP# increases – just missed last out – little better 2nd up
9 – BIG LOUS MESSENGER – on the lead all by myself +7 EP
