We’re locked in at Tampa Bay Downs with a 9-race card featuring 7 races on fast dirt and 2 on turf, giving us a strong mix of pace scenarios, surface changes, and betting opportunities. On today’s show, Rich and Terry break down: Terry’s Best Bet $100 in suggested Bennie and the Bets Pick 4 sequences with structure and coverage Key angles for dirt vs turf form Trainers and riders who consistently deliver at Tampa This is the kind of Tampa card where discipline and surface awareness matter. Dirt races reward tactical speed, while the turf events open the door for trips, class, and timing to make the difference. If you’re looking for structure, experience, and a clear plan, this is the show to watch. 👍 Like the video if it helps 🔔 Subscribe for daily race analysis and track-specific insights
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Terry’s Picks
Tampa Bay Downs – 1-28-26
Race 1
1 – Repetitive – Debut runner. Sire wins 17% with first-time starters; Dam produced 9 winners from 10 starters, including a stakes winner. Breeding fits sprint distance.
4 – Moroder – Shows early speed, may benefit from shorter distance; trained by high-percentage winner.
5 – American Direction – Highest last race speed rating; Can improve while returning to Dirt; Drops in class today.
Longshot:
3 – Gators Reign – Early speed running style helps chances.
Race 2-Female
1 – Jassai – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Highest last race speed rating; Has a high % winning jockey.
7 – Strand of Gold – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Has a high % winning trainer; Can do the distance.
5 – Shabam – Likes Tampa Bay Downs, finishing in the money in 45% of the races, winning 9% of the starts; can handle the distance, finishing in the money in 74% of the races, winning 21% of the starts.
Longshot:
4 – Star of Saturn – Drops in class today; She has a trainer who wins 22% of the races when taking a horse from a Sprint-Sprint- Route.
Alternate:
8 – Red Eleanor
2 – Utopia Rose
$.50 Pick 4: 1,7/1,4,7/1,2,3,7/1,3,6,8 – Cost $48.00
Race 3
7 – Osprey – Finished in the money in 5 out of 11 starts at Tampa Bay Downs; Drops in class today; Trainer has a high win percentage.
4 – Norfie – Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race; Highest last race speed rating; Trainer has a high win percentage.
1 – Rebel Empire – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Drops in class today; Trainer and jockey have high win rates.
Longshot:
2 – Al Ameeq – Drops in class today; has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
8 – Star Kanoo
5 – Newyearsblockparty
$.50 Pick 4: 1,4,7/1,2,3,7/1,3,6,8/2,4 – Cost $48.00
Race 4-Female
3 – Heavenly Dancer – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; She has a high % jockey.
2 – Instabrat – Won last race; Trainer and jockey have high win rates.
1 – Bolt of Paradise –Has a high % winning trainer who wins 18% of the sprint races that he has a horse running in; has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
7 – She Stopped Short – Likes Tampa Bay Downs, finishing in the money in 44% of the races, winning 11% of the starts; can handle the distance, finishing in the money in 50% of the races, winning 17% of the starts.
Alternate:
5 – Go Go Star
Race 5-Female
8 – Enchant – Fastest turf speed today; trainer and jockey both have high win %.
6 – Jersey Joyce – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Highest last race speed rating; She has a high % winning jockey.
1 – Addagirl Addie – 3rd last out vs similar; now gets a top jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Katarzyna – Trainer and jockey have high win rates.
Alternate:
7 – Elektra King
5 – Lil Miss Lollipop
Race 6-Female
2 – Authentic Wave – Has won her last two races in a row and now goes for a hat trick; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Ridgie – In the money in 5 of 5 career starts, with 3 wins; Drops in class today; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
3 – Questnbled’cisions – Won last race at Tampa Bay Downs; Has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
6 – Charming Jennie – Won debut at Tampa Bay Downs; Has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
5 – Prancin Inthe Dark
$.50 Pick 4: 2,4/1,8,9/5,7,9,10/2,3,6,7 – Cost $48.00
Bet: $20.00 Win: 2 – $10.00 Exacta Box:2/4 – $10.00 Exacta: 2/3,4,6 – $5.00 Exacta Box:2,3,4
Race 7
9 – Fit to Fire – In the money in 3 of 5 starts at Tampa Bay Downs, with 1 win; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
8 – Redbird Nation – Should improve while returning to dirt; has a trainer who wins 47% of the races when taking a horse down 2+ classes.
1 – Protest – Won last race at Tampa Bay Downs.
Longshot:
6 – Star of Abraham – Early speed running style helps chances; Has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
3 – K Paz
4 – Raydar Control
Race 8
10 – Midnight Onyx – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Highest last race speed rating; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Fort Charles – Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Scar – Switches to a high % winning jockey, Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
9 – Lucky Curlin – Won last race at Tampa Bay Downs, Highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Alternate:
1 – He’s a Good Dancer
6 – Funkenstein
Race 9-Female
7 – Life Advice – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; trainer and jockey have high win rates.
2 – Authenticate Now: Drops in class today; Best turf speed is faster than the Avg Winning Speed; High-percentage winning jockey.
3 – Madam Prosecutor – Fourth as favorite last out after having trouble during the race; 22% winning trainer with success in beaten favorites.
Longshot:
6 – Temple City Taboo – Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
5 – Nashville Slew
Best Bet of the Day at Tampa Bay Downs – 6th Race – #2 – Authentic Wave
Rich’s Picks
Race 1: 6 Furlongs – Early Speed, 33% w2w – PP: 4-7 Best, 8+ Fairish
5 – AMERICAN DIRECTION – only YES horse – TLRSP# +8
1 – REPETITIVE – 2.66 1st timer with some solid works
4 – MORODER – SIM FAV – probably most consistent
3 – GATORS REIGN – maybe too much early speed for the rest
Race 2: 1 Mile 40 Yards – Bias: Early Speed, 16% – PP: Outside In
1 – JASSAI – SIM FAV – ran faster last out
5 – SHABAM – maybe too much ES for the rest here as left arrow
4 – STAR OF SATURN – Top TOTAL PACE +5 – better ATB
7 – STRAND OF GOLD – last race better than it looks – better EP – 3rd up
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,4,5/1,4,7/2,3,6/1,6,8
Race 3: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 20% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Small Discount, 8+ Bonus
7 – OSPREY – SIM FAV – better fractions despite going a little longer
1 – REBEL EMPIRE – improved from the middle out – pacesetter and tie TOP TOTAL PACE
4 – NORFIE – TLRSP#+3 maybe better in the 3rd up – Alpha Angle for tr Richards 28v14
8 – STAR KANOO – maybe a tough call over the 2 – but tr is ice cold – 0/21 to start 26
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,4,7/2,3,6/1,6,8/2,4,6
Race 4: 5 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 3/8 w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Hard, 8+ Best
2 – INSTABRAT – TLRPS# +4 and Top TOTAL PACE +5 – ITM 4/5 at the distance
3 – HEAVENLY DANCER – should be out front – consistent
6 – MEAN TO ME – GP track dropper and biggest class dropper
1 – BOLT OF PARADISE – recent resume says 2nd up should pop
$5 Exacta Key Box: 2/1,3,6,7
Race 5: 1 1/8 Miles Turf – Bias: 1 Race – Rail Horse Closed to Win
6 – JERSEY JOYCE – TLRSP# +3 – maybe a little better in 2nd up
8 – ENCHANT- pace and fade in last should have more stamina in 2nd up
1 – ADDAGIRL ADDIE – by far best C ZONE – Distance 2/0-2-0
3 – KATARZYNA – could be Lone E – super consistent
Race 6: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 25% w2w – PP: Rail None, 2+ All Bonuses
6 – CHARMING JENNIE – 2nd Race Upside – fairly impressive debut – overcoming issues
4 – RIDGIE – lone class dropper – won with ease at this level
2 – AUTHENTIC WAVE – 1st Lasix – cut back in distance could help – SIM FAV
3 – QUESTNBLED’CISIONS – Top TOTAL PACE horse – EZ win in last 2nd Up
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,4,6/6,8,9/5,6,7/2,7,10
Race 7: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 33% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Discount, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Almost Fair
9 – FIT TO FIRE – SIM FAV – Top TOTAL PACE +11 – Best PAR+ by Far
8 – REDBIRD NATION – YES horse – claim and drop
6 – STAR OF ABRAHAM – strong chance to be at the front – top ES +6
7 – TRICKY TIGER – last of the YES horses – probably gets a little better coming in from GP
Race 8: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Closers, 17% w2w – PP: Rail and 8+ Best, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Almost Fair
7 – SCAR – biggest Class Dropper – Top TOTAL PACE
5 – FORT CHARLES – better middle out – could chance to be better in classic 3rd start
6 – FUNKENSTEIN – SIM FAV – biggest in race edge – LS +5
10 – MIDNIGHT ONYX – better EP and fractions in last – TB 13/3-3-2
$5 Exacta Key Box: 7/5,6,9,10
Race 9: 1 Mile Turf – Bias: Closers, 29% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2-7 Bonus, 8+ Like Rail
7 – LIFE ADVICE – almost won last, missed by a neck in first try at TB – biggest drop
10 – LADY FROST – By Far Best C ZONE – SIM FAV – Top TOTAL PACE
2 – AUTHENTICATE NOW – 2 Length LS advantage – steady performer
5 – NASHVILLE SLEW – GP Track dropper and class dropper
