It’s a sunny, warm day at Tampa Bay Downs and we’ve got a strong 9-race card that offers a little bit of everything — legitimate favorites, viable longshots, and several value plays that could spice up the tote. This is the type of card where structure matters. Some races look formful with horses that may be hard to beat. Others open the door for price horses if the pace setup shifts or a favorite shows vulnerability. We’re breaking down where to lean chalk — and where to take a stand. On today’s show: 🎯 Terry’s Best Bet 💵 Bennie and the Bets ($100 strategy) 🔁 Pick 4 sequences 📊 Smart Sheets edge with TOTAL PACE, PAR+, C ZONE, TLRSP#, and trip modeling Warm weather, fast track conditions, and a balanced race mix should create fair racing — and fair racing creates opportunity. Drop your Best Bet below before first post. Let’s build momentum today. 🏇💰
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Terry’s Picks
Tampa Bay Downs – 3-04-26
Race 1
5 – Repetitive – Debut winner at Tampa Bay Downs with a high-percentage trainer and jockey.
3 – Unique Power – Won last race at Tampa Bay Downs; Can go the distance.
4 – King Gerald – Runner-up as the favorite last time; trainer wins 22% with beaten favorites; Drops in class today.
Longshot:
6 – Trafalgar’s Hero – Switches to a high % winning jockey; Drops in class today.
Alternate:
2 – Beijing Boss
1 – Danzing Miner
Race 2
3 – El Orejon – Won 2 races out of the last 3 starts: Has a high% trainer and jockey.
1 – Giggity – Won last race at Tampa Bay Downs; Has a high% jockey; Good 4F workout (Feb-25).
6 – I’m Mischievous – Ran 3rd in last race; Has a high% jockey.
Longshot:
7 – Il Vagabundo – Has a high% trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
2 – Efata
5 – Candy Road
$.50 Pick 4: 1,3,6,7/1,3,4,5/2,5,7/7,10 – Cost $48.00
Race 3
5 – Hey River – Won last race at PARX Racing; Highest last race speed rating; Has a high% trainer and jockey.
1 – Mayheminthepalace – Finished in the money in 2 of the last 3 starts, including 1 win; holds the fastest dirt speed today; features a high-percentage trainer and jockey.
3 – Norfie – Won last race at Tampa Bay Downs; Likes distance; Has a high% trainer.
Longshot:
4 – Saybrook – Drops in class today; Highest speed figure at today’s distance; Has a high% jockey.
Alternate:
6 – Lucky Curlin
$.50 Pick 4: 1,3,4,5/1,2,5,7/7,10/3,4,7 – Cost $48.00
Race 4-Female
7 – Stormy Mitole – Won last race at Tampa Bay Downs; trainer and jockey have high win rates.
5 – Ariana Valentina – Likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 100% of the races, winning 50% of the starts; can handle the distance, finishing in the money in 80% of the races, winning 40% of the starts.
2 – Sing Scat: Drops in class today; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
1 – Chacarera: Has won 3 races out of 5 starts at Tampa Bay Downs; Drops in class today.
Alternate:
4 – Crossati
Race 5
10 – Tigre – Finished in the money in the last 6 starts, winning 1 race; Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer.
7 – Son of a Slew – Won last race at Tampa Bay Downs; Has a high % winning jockey.
5 – Makoa – Likes at Tampa Bay Downs, finishing in the money in 75% of the races, winning 13% of the starts; can handle the distance, finishing in the money in 88% of the races, winning 13% of the starts.
Longshot:
3 – Toro Forward – Ran 2nd vs tougher in last race; Drops in class today; The shorter distance can help; Has a high % winning Jockey.
Alternate:
11 – Zhu Daddy
Race 6
3 – They Call Me Sue – Finished 3rd in last race; Has a high % winning jockey.
7 – Peppapete – Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race; Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – More Than Cute – 3rd last race; has today’s top dirt speed.
Longshot:
1 – Grandpa’s Ace – First time starter whose Dam has 6 winners from 7 starters; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 20% of the races with 1st time starters.
Alternate:
2 – Titanio Coco
6 – American Tact
$.50 Pick 4: 1,3,4,7/2,6/1,9/1,2,6,7,9,10 – Cost $48.00
Race 7
6 – Spirit Prince – Runner-up as the favorite last time; trainer wins 35% with beaten favorites; Has a high % winning jockey.
2 – Keep It Easy – Breeding suggests he will like the grass; Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Journeyman – Has a strong record at Tampa Bay Downs, finishing in the money 62% of the time and winning 23%; also performs well over distance, with 58% in-the-money and 25% wins.
Longshot:
9 – Soliwa – Throw out the last race because of lots of trouble; Finished in the money in 50% of his turf starts.
Alternate:
11 – McRavin
Bet: $20.00 Win: 6 – $10.00 Exacta Box:2/6 – $10.00 Exacta: 6/1,2,9 – $5.00 Exacta Box: 1,2,6
Race 8
9 – Bang a Rang – Finished in the money in 8 of the last 9 starts, including 4 win; Switches to high % winning Jockey.
1 – Secret Treasure – Won last race at Tampa Bay Downs; Has a high % winning trainer.
6 – Final Drama – Finished 4th as the favorite last time; trainer wins 22% with beaten favorites; Drops in class today.
Longshot:
2 – Cross Haste –Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
7 – Anchises
Race 9
1 – Board of Directors – Won his debut race at Tampa Bay Downs; Has a high % winning trainer.
2 – Thundering – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters; Has a high % winning trainer starters.
6 – Chicago Theatre – Ran 2nd in last race, Highest last race speed rating.
Longshot:
7 – Willpowered – Won last race at Tampa Bay Downs; Has a high % winning trainer and Jockey.
Alternate:
10 – Double Neat
9 – Tux
Best Bet of the Day at Tampa Bay Downs – 7th Race – 6 – Spirit Prince
Rich’s Picks
Race 1: 6 Furlongs – Early Speed, 35% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Tough, 4-7 Best, 8+ Discount
5 – REPETITIVE – 2nd race upside way past par
4 – KING GERALD – on the lead with standout C ZONE – cut back helps
3 – UNIQUE POWER – smoked the comp in first at TB after coming in from Cali
2 – BEIJING BOSS – 3rd up and track dropping from GP
Race 2: 7 Furlongs – Early Speed, 18% w2w – PP: Rail Stinks, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Bonus
3 – EL OREJON – TLRSP# +4 – 3rd up and room for more – lone EP Type
7 – IL VAGABUNDO – GP and Class dropper on the pace w/ Top C ZONE
6 – I’M MISCHIEVOUS – On the Lead – faster despite going longer
1 – GIGGITY – SIM FAV and Top TOTAL PACE
$0.50 Pick 4: 3,7/1,4,5/2,5,7/2,5,7,9,10
Race 3: 7 Furlongs – Early Speed, 18% w2w – PP: Rail Stinks, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Bonus
1 – MAYHEMINTHEPALACE – Big SIM FAV and Top TOTAL PACE
4 – SAYBROOK – Lone E on the Lead with top C ZONE
5 – HEY RIVER – TLRSP# +7 – resume says better in 2nd up
6 – LUCKY CURLIN – better EP and cuts back in distance
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,4,5/2,5,7/7,9,10/2,3,7
Race 4: 1 Mile 40 Yards – Stalkers, 19% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2+ Small Bonus
7 – STORMY MITOLE – he could go all the way – Lone E +11 EP decent C ZONE
5 – ARIANA VALENTINA – highly consistent, best when close to the pace – there today
2 – SING SCAT – only horse with better EP and Fractions
1 – CHACARERA – YES horse with the 5 and was better early in last – rail hurts
Race 5: 1 Mile Turf – Closers, 23% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2-7 Bonus. 8+ Toughest
10 – TIGRE – Yes Horse with top TOTAL PACE – consistent with upside
9 – SHERMAN FURY – SIM FAV – better EP/Fractions – biggest dropper – 20-1?
7 – SON OF A SLEW 4SP# Increases – proper distance and surface – both wins in 7 races vs 10/0-1-1 on or at anything else
5 – MAKOA – tough call over some others – but ITM 6/8 on Tampa Turf – and 7/8 at a mile
$0.50 Trifecta: 5,7,9,10/7,9,10/2,5,7,9,10,11
Race 6: 5 ½ Furlongs – Early Speed, 40% w2w – PP: Rail Strong, 2/3 Stronger, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Fair
3 – THEY CALL ME SUE – ran a ton faster early in last – cutting back helps
7 – PEPPAPETE – 2 length top TOTAL PACE Edge and just 3rd race
2 – TITANIO COCO – going to take a flyer here – on the lead, strong C ZONE – lone class drop
4 – MORE THAN CUTE – only YES horse – was at 5 ½ too
$0.50 Pick 4: 3,7/2,6,9,11/1,6,9/1,2,6,9
Race 7: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Closers, 24% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2-7 Bonus, 8+ Discount
11 – MCRAVIN – biggest in race edge +5 LS where closers win – great works
6 – SPIRIT PRINCE – best PAR+ – consistently on the high end of SP# for these
2 – KEEP IT EASY – SIM FAV – was on the Derby Trail early last year – not in for a price – in for a check
9 – SOLIWAY – another flyer – some of the best turf breeding in the field – lone E and raced at some of the top track in France – and won
$5 Exacta Key Box: 11/2,4,6,9
Race 8: 7 Furlongs – Early Speed, 18% w2w – PP: Rail Stinks, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Bonus
9 – BANG A RANG – strong C ZONE and top TOTAL PACE +7 and lots of upside
1 – SECRET TREASURE – EZ in in last – pairs strong efforts – a little more distance help
6 – FINAL DRAMA – SIM FAV and Top PAR+ by a bit – will close
5 – TRIPLE PASS – only Class Dropper with strong C ZONE
Race 9: 1 1/8 Miles Turf – 5 Races, 4 Closers, 1 w2w – PP Fair – though Inside 3 won 3/5
6 – CHICAGO THEATRE – 3SP# Increases with TLRSP# +5 – really good turf breeding
1 – BOARD OF DIRECTORS – Chad Brown horse off for a year – could POP or DROP6
9 – TUX – expecting big improvement here – top C ZONE
2 – THUNDERING – Pretty heavy SIM FAV in a strong field – 3rd up – post helps
$5 Exacta Key Box: 6/1,2,9,10
