Tampa Bay Downs Full Card Tips, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
$100 Challenge – Suggested Wagers for Tampa Bay Downs on a $100 Budget
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Laurel Park
Tampa Downs Picks and Plays
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
4 – Tap First – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 28% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and has a high % winning Jockey.
5 – Awesome Enough – He ran 2nd vs tougher in his last race, has a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey and has the highest last race speed rating.
8 – Cajun Red – He won his last race at Tampa Bay Downs, and he has the best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
12 – Abe Honestly – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and has a high % winning trainer who wins 20% of the races in the 2nd start with the trainer.
Alternate:
10 – Wild Irishman
Bet: $1.00 DD: 4,5,8,12 / 2
Bet: – $.50 Pick 4 – 1st race #4,5,8,12 – 2nd race # 2 – 3rd race # 1,4,5,7 – 4th race #4,6
Race 2
2 – Ringside – He finished 3rd vs similar in his only start and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Perform – He drops in class today, has the highest last race speed rating and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
1 – Starforce – He can improve while returning to dirt and has a high % winning jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (15 5-1-4).
Longshot:
3 – Ski Country – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 20% of the races in the trainer’s 2nd route race.
Alternate:
6 – Prove Worthy
5 – Artwell
Bet: $10.00 Win # 2
Race 3
1 – Rainbow’s Pride – He finished 2nd in his last race only losing by a neck after being well bet in his debut and has a high % jockey.
5 – City Humor – He has an early foot but finished a disappointing 6th after being bumped at the break and returning to dirt may help.
4 – Roses by Liam – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race.
Longshot:
7 – Dee’s Wiseguy – He has an early foot and so his early speed running style helps chances and can improve while returning to dirt.
Alternate:
9 – All Our Munny
2 – Smooth Flyin Mike
Bet: $.50 Trifecta: 1,5/1,4,5/1,4,5,7,9
Race 4
4- Eau Claire – She has won two races in a row at Tampa Bay Downs and now going for a hat trick and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Texas Shuffle – She comes in from Gulfstream Park after finishing 3rd vs tougher in her last race to try Tampa Bay Downs, drops in class today and her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
5 – Prudent Song – She has finished in the money in eight of the last nine races, winning three of the starts.
Longshot:
1 – Flashy Too – She finished 3rd in her last race, has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and has a high % winning trainer who wins 22% of the races when taking blinkers off.
Alternate:
3 – Sweet Dutchess
8 – Saturday Nite Girl
Bet: None
Race 5
6 – Olivia Darling – She has won two out of the last three starts, finishing 2nd in her last race, has a high % winning trainer and has a good 4F workout on Mar-04.
4 – Take a Stand – She has finished 3rd vs tougher (on Turf) in her last race and drops in class today.
1 – Restofthestory– She ran 2nd in her last race.
Longshot:
9 – Adios Baby – She has finished in the money in nine of the last ten races, winning two of the starts, has a high % winning trainer and jockey and has a good 4F workout on Mar-05.
Alternate:
3 – Be Like Water
Bet: None
Race 6
7 – Broken Hearts Bay – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, has the highest last race speed rating (tie), her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and has a high % winning jockey.
3 – Ms. Bucchero – She is a first-time starter whose Sire wins 17% with 1st time starters, her Dam has 3 winners from 3 starters and 1 stakes winner and a good 4F workout on Mar-05.
6 – Oldest Sister – She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 3 winners from 4 starters and a good 4F workout on Mar-03.
Longshot:
10 – Dynamic Daisy – She is a first-time starter whose Sire wins 18% with 1st time Starters and her Dam has 2 winners from 2 starters.
Alternate:
14 – Rosario’s Prayer
12 – Humor Sense
Bet: $.50 Trifecta: 3,7/3,6,7/3,6,7,10,14
Race 7
10 – Talk of the Nation – He won his last race at Tampa Bay Downs, has a high % winning jockey, and has a good 5F workout on Mar-04.
1 – Freedom Trail – He has won two out of three races, drops in class today and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – A Western Yarn – He has won two races in a row and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
8 – Smoke Lightening – He finished in the money in three out of four career races, winning one race and has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
6 – Summer Bee
Bet: $.50 Pick 5 – 7th race #1,3,10- 8th race # 2,7 – 9th race # 5,6 – 10th race #10 – 11th #4,6.9
Race 8
2 – Skippylongstocking – He has won two races out of four races, has the highest last race speed rating and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
7 – Tax – He can improve while returning to dirt, has a trainer who wins 23% of the races when shipping a horse in and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
1 – Trademark – He has won his last two races and he has a bullet 5F workout on Mar-05.
Longshot:
3 – Mighty Heart – He returns to the dirt where he won his last race at Tampa Bay Downs.
Alternate:
8 – Business Model
Bet: – $.50 Pick 4 – 8th race # 2,7 – 9th race # 5,6 – 10th race #6,10 – 11th #4,6.9
Race 9
6 – Shantisara – She ran 2nd in her last race, her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie), and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Gam’s Mission – She comes in from Churchill Downs after winning the G3 Mint Julip, has finished in the money in 70% of her career races, winning 40% of the starts.
7 – Scotish Star – She ran 2nd in her first race at Tampa Bay Downs, only losing by a neck and has a High % winning trainer.
Longshot:
2 – Surprisingly – She is a closer who won her first start at Tampa Bay Downs and is ridden by Paco Lopez.
Alternate:
4 – Rougir
1 – Kalifornia Queen
Bet: $10.00 Win # 6
Race 10
10 – Free Look – She is trained by Chad Brown, ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr., her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and Lasix is added.
6 – Navy Goat – She has finished in the money in all four of her careers starts winning two of the races and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Alpha Bella – She ran 2nd in her last race, a G3 only losing by ¾ of a length, and she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
8 – Juniper’s Moon – She came in from aqueduct and won her first race at Tampa Bay Downs and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
1 – Mission of Joy
9 – Mohawk Trail
Bet: $10.00 Win # 10
Race 11
6 – Tapit Trice – He won his last race at Gulfstream Park; his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and he has a good 4F workout of Mar-04.
4 – Groveland – He has finished in the money in all five of his careers starts winning one of the races and finishing in 2nd in his last race.
9 – Shesterkin – He ran 2nd in his last race, winning the race before.
Longshot:
2 – Classic Car Wash – He has won two races out of his last three races, finishing 3rd in the last race.
Alternate:
7 – Freedom Road
1 – Lord Miles
Bet: $1.00 DD: 4,6 / 4,5,9,10
Race 12
5 – Galileo’s Jewel – She finished 3rd vs tougher in her first two career races, drops in class today and can improve at the longer distance.
9 – Royalty Interest – She is a first-time starter whose breeding suggests she will like the grass, has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Justifiable Belle – She has the highest last race speed rating, drops in class today, her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters, and she has a good 5F workout on Mar-05.
Longshot:
10 – Lil Miss Moonlight – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, has a high % winning trainer and jockey and trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-1-0).
Alternate:
2 – Volatility
14 – Pedigeek
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 36% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Penalty, 4-7 Big Bonus, 8+ Under Par
5 – AWESOME ENOUGH – TLRSP# by a few points, incrementally better ATB in last – Gets Paco today
4 – TAP FIRST – similar fractions at 6 1/2f v 5 1/2f and room, cutting back in distance 3rd off the sidelines
8 – CAJUN RED – been moving up the speed gun ladder, 3 in a row, early speed with a weight break today
12 – ABE HONESTLY – second start with tr Kathleen O’Connell – 20% angle for 14% trainer
Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Trifecta: 4,5,8/4,5/4,5,8,9,12
Race 2: 1 Mile 40 Yards – Bias: Early Speed – 23% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair with 8+ Bonus
7 – PERFORM – TLRSP# by a wide margin, peak #, but ran same in only other 2nd off the bench
2 – RINGSIDE – best debut of the bunch, decent works before race 2
5 – ARTWELL – don’t know if Pletcher moved Pablo off the 6, but he’s the man at TB and on this first timer, my guess is he’s worked this horse and if he had a choice – it’s telling
6 – WORTHY – decent debut – I can’t imagine Pletcher took Pablo off for a MSW
Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Trifecta: 2,5,7/2,7/1,2,5,6,7
Race 3: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 36% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Penalty, 4-7 Big Bonus, 8+ Under Par
2 – SMOOTH FLYIN MIKE – first time starter with decent works catching a soft field
1 – RAINBOW’S PRIDE – rough start in last missed by a neck, good works since
9 – ALL OUR MUNNY – was better ATB in 2nd career start, would have liked to see more works between races, must be some unpublished work, if the March 7 is the only work, downgrade
8 – KING MIANO – TLRSP# and had best 4f work between races
Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,2/1,2,9/1,2,6,8,9
Race 4: 1 Mile Turf – Bias: Tactical Speed – 22% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bias, 4+ Close to Fair
4 – EAU CLAIRE – been getting better and winner of two in a row, impressive fractions in last at 1M
6 – TEXAS SHUFFLE – Track dropper, been off since New Year’s Eve, works are very strong 1st up record is solid but no wins
5 – PRUDENT SONG – won both Tampa 1m turf race with ease, concerned about being claimed by low win rate barn
3 – SWEET DUTCHESS – last race was a lot better than the finish with faster fractions
Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Trifecta: 4,5,6/4,6/1,3,4,5,6
Race 5: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 36% w2w – PP: Outside In Bias, 8+ Bonus
2 – STERLING SILVER – TLRSP# and huge drop in class after running in 5 graded stakes in a row, won all three first starts off the bench, wonder why she is running here?
6 – OLIVIA DARLING – 3sp# increases in a row, big mid move, chased fast fractions in last
1 – RESTOFTHESTORY – Distance 7/0-3-3, should be involved from go
5 – TAP DANCE FEVER – won last two at TB and drops from a G3 here
Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Pick 4: 2/3,7,9/1,3,9,10/2,7,8
Race 6: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 36% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Penalty, 4-7 Big Bonus, 8+ Under Par
Going to take some chances here
3 – MS. BUCCHERO – workouts are too good to ignore – tr John Vinson 6/14 with 1st timers
9 – KAELY’S FANTASY – four straight fast works in a row, somewhat concerning had a two week break between last two after working once a week since Jan 4th
7 – BROKEN HEARTS BAY – either this or the 14 is the best of the experienced horses, TLRPS#
14 – ROSARIO’S PRAYER – Is the other best of the experienced horses
Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Trifecta: 3,9/3,7,9/3,7,9,11,14
Race 7: 1 Mile Turf – Bias: Tactical Speed – 22% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bias, 4+ Close to Fair
10 – TALK OF THE NATION – better from race to race through first three, cut back in distance could help
3 – A WESTERN YARN – undefeated in two at the distance since switching to routes
1 – FREEDOM TRAIL – won his first two on grass then tried dirt in a G2 fail – back to turf – lone C type
9 – MO STASH – tough call over the 5 – finished 3rd in the Breeders’ Cup, works getting ready are OK
Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,3,10/3,10/1,3,5,9,10
Race 8: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Early Speed – 19% w2w – PP: None from Rail, 2/3 Way Underperform, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Big Bonus
8 – BUSINESS MODEL – has a +7 LP edge vs a field loaded with horses that want to be upfront
2 – SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING – might be the best horse, but you have to play away from the inside 3 anti bias
7 – TAX – been facing tougher than what is left, and I’ll take the outside horse over the 3 or 1
3 – MIGHTY HEART – really benefits from the four scratching and – won lone TB dirt start – Distance 10/3-2-3
Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Pick 4: 2,8/4,6/3,7,10/6,9
Race 9: 1 1/8 Miles Turf – Bias: Closers – 17% w2w – PP: Rail Penalty, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Best, 8+ Biggest Penalty
6 – SHANTISARA – one of two Chad Brown horses and this one has Irad, all you need to know
4 – ROUGIR – the other Brown horse, been squaring up vs G1s, lightest field she’s faced in a while
3 – TEMPLE CITY TERROR – +7LP edge and facing a field without a lot of EP, should not be too far off the pace
2 – SURPRISINGLY – tough call over the 7, but they are coming out of the same race and she passed the 7, this race is longer
Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Trifecta: 3,4,6/4,6/2,3,4,6,7
Race 10: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Bias: 50/50 – 14% w2w – PP: Fair
10 – FREE LOOK – never really had a good trip yet still very competitive vs top competition – should be the class here
3 – ALPHA BELLA – with the 7, have the best ep/lp combos in the field by a decent margin, expecting sizable improvement in race 2 off the sidelines
7 – STEPHANIE’S CHARM – let’s take other with a superior ep/lp combo at a price
11 – GRACE DARLING – love the comment for US debut, surged between horses when asked
Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Trifecta: 3,7,10/3,10/1,3,7,10,11
Race 11: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Early Speed – 19% w2w – PP: None from Rail, 2/3 Way Underperform, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Big Bonus
6 – TAPIT TRICE – really should get the perfect setup as lone PC versus a lot of early runners
9 – SHESTERKIN – failed as the FAV vs the 6 in their last, could be better in 2nd route and 3rd career start
3 – CLASSIC LEGACY – huge improvement in round two in only two race cycle – getting Irad helps – post doesn’t
7 – FREEDOM ROAD – we’ll take a price with a closer that appears to be getting better, confirmed by some good works
Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Trifecta: 6,9/3,6,9/3,4,6,7,9
Race 12: 1 Mile Turf – Bias: Tactical Speed – 22% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bias, 4+ Close to Fair
10 – LIL MISS MOONLIGHT – Lone PC vs field without much EP, +7 LP edge over all experienced horses
9 – ROYALTY INTEREST – Chad Brown/Irad first timer at TB with good works
2 – VOLATILITY – a couple of decent races on turf jy Sammy Camacho and tr John Terranova won 3/7 together
5 – GALILEO’S JEWEL – BTN FAV in last, decent works but tr Anthony Dutrow 0-19 first route
Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Trifecta: 9,10/2,9,10/2,4,5,9,10
Tampa Bay Downs Way to the Winners’ Circle Worksheet
