Tampa Bay Downs Full Card Tips, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
$100 Challenge – Suggested Wagers for Tampa Bay Downs on a $100 Budget
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Mahoning Valley
Tampa Bay Downs Picks and Plays
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
4 – Ready to Film – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
5 – Csilla – She won her last race at PARX Racing, and she has highest last race speed rating.
2 – Beautiful Tiz – She just does not like the turf as of late and now returns to the dirt where she has done better, has a high % trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Drill’s Valentine – She drops in class today and the distance will not be a problem.
Alternate:
3 – Rapidamente
6 – Calendula
Bet: $.50 Pick 5 – 1st race #4,5 – 2nd race # 2,3- 3rd race # 5 – 4th race #2,6- 5th #2,3,5,8,10
$1.00 DD: 4,5/2,3,5
Race 2
3 – Broken Hearts Bay – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, has a high % trainer who wins 30% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and high % winning jockey.
2 – Arrow Bolt – She drops in class today, can improve while returning to a sprint and she has a good 4F workout on Mar-26.
5 – Stellar Nova – She finished 4th vs similar in her last race and has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
4 – Seawitch – She should improve while returning to dirt and has a good 4f ft :49.2 B 23/103 on 26Mar.
Alternate:
6 – The Monster Irus
1 – Shezanarcticqueen
Bet: $.50 Pick 4 – 2nd race # 2,3- 3rd race # 2,3,5 – 4th race #2,6- 5th #2,3,5,8,10
Race 3
5 – Harrow – He finished in the money in six out of eight races at PARX Racing, winning his last race and likes the distance finishing in the money in three out of four races, winning one.
2 – Ronstadt – He has won his last two races in a row and now goes for a hat trick and has a high % trainer.
3 – Smart as Me – He has won three races out of his last four races and has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Whiskey Plank – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and was claimed by a trainer who wins 21% of the races in the first after a claim.
Alternate:
4 – Cajun Casanova
1 – Ready to Fly
Bet: $10.00 Win: #5
Race 4
6- Sogno Di Campione – He ran 2nd in his last race, can improve at the shorter distance and has a high % winning trainer.
2 – Chicks Dig Scars – He won his last race at PARX Racing and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Machismo – He finished 3rd in his last race, has the highest last race speed and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
3 – Happy Cajun – He went up in class in his last race was bumped at the start and finished 9th and now goes in an allowance race where he has a trainer who wins 25% of the races in Allowance races.
Alternate:
1 – Bumperdoo
4 – Joyful Heart
$0.50 Trifecta: 2,6/2,5,6/1,2,3,5,6
Race 5
8 – Kharkiv – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race.
10 – My Baton Rouge – She finished 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in her last race.
2 – Cayman Queen – She finished 3rd vs similar in last race.
Longshot:
3 – Cairo Winner – She has finished 3rd vs similar in her two last races.
Alternate:
5 – Empire Girl
Bet: $.50 Pick 5 – 5th race #2,3,5,8,10 – 6th race # 1- 7th race # 2,4,7 – 8th race #7 – 9th #2,6
Race 6
1 – Cuz – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, switches to a high % winning trainer who wins 30% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and has a high % winning jockey.
5 – Hard Lighting – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and has a good 4F workout on Mar-30.
7 – Ghost Stalker – He finished in the money in 44% of his races at PARX Racing and has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Savage – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and switches to a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
8 – Indian Buzz
4 – It’s Fate
Bet: $.50 Pick 4 – 6th race # 1- 7th race # 2,4,7 – 8th race #7,8- 9th #2,6
Bet: $$6.00 Win: #1
Race 7
7 – Investment Income – She has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and has a good 4F workout on Mar-29.
4 – Lizqueenfluerdelis – She finished in the money in three out of the last four races, and the distance will not be a problem.
2 – Challenge Princess – She has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
9 – She’s Just Quality – She seems to like the turf as her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Race 8
7 – Tipharah – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race and has the highest last race speed rating.
8 – Wine With a Rose – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race.
2 – Sunshine Girl – She has a high % winning trainer and jockey and a good 3F workout on Mar-29.
Longshot:
3 – Angelic Storm – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
5 – She Is Royalty
4 – Flash Dear
Bet: None
Race 9
6 – Takeover Kash – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and switches to a high % winning jockey.
2 – Lord of the Nile – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race.
1 – Stirling’s Gold – He finished 3rd vs tougher (on Dirt) in his last race and drops in class today and has the highest last race speed rating.
Longshot:
4 – Remember the Tune – He drops in class today.
Alternate:
9 – Magic Wizard
Bet: None
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 30% w2w – PP: Strong Outside In Bias
5 – CSILLA – has a an early pace edge and just ran the same fractions at 7f as 6f
4 – READY TO FILM – stronger through the first half mile last out
3 – RAPIDAMENTE – last race was better than it appears in the PPs with much stronger PACE through 4f
2 – BEAUTIFUL TIZ – toss out the last, back to a level where she ran competitively
Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Pick 3: 4,5/2,3/2,3,4,5
Race 2: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 30% w2w – PP: Strong Outside In Bias
3 – BROKEN HEARTS BAY – TLRSP# and BTN Fav, tr Jon Arnett rebounds at 30% – TB 3/0-1-2
2 – ARROW BOLT – dropping in from MSW at GP, was well bet down there and ran evenly
4 – SEAWITCH – move back to dirt and cutting distance should help if she can run two back
6 – THE MONSTER IRUS – tough call over the 5, but works are better
Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Trifecta: 2,3/2,3,4/2,3,4,5,6
Race 3: 1 Mile Turf – Bias: Tactical Speed – 21% w2w – PP: Small Inside Out
5 – HARROW – TLRSP# and had a major upswing in LP in his most recent run
2 – RONSTADT – Terry horse, looking for a Hat Trick – better early fractions in his Feb 26 outing
3 – SMART AS ME – this is the right distance – 3/2-0-0, caught some really fast fractions in last
4 – CAJUN CASANOVA – has the top EP/LP combo, should be forwardly placed in first route
Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Trifecta: 2,3,5/2,5/1,2,3,4,5
Race 4: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 33% w2w – PP: Strong Inside 3 Penalty, 4-7 Best, 8+ Fair
5 – MACHISMO – TB 4/0-3-1 and most 2nds have been close – TLRSP# and will resume says expect a big mid move
2 – CHICKS DIG SCARS – Lone EP horse, should compete for the lead and has a strong chance to get a trip he likes
6 – SOGNO DI CAMPIONE – ran in group races in Chile, first race in almost a year off was solid, could be better in the 2nd up, but would have liked to see a work between races
1 – BUMPERDOO – TB 4/0-3-0, really consistent effort from start to finish in the 1st up, expecting more in round two off the sidelines
Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Trifecta: 2,5,6/2,5,6/1,2,3,5,6
Race 5: 1 Mile Turf – Bias: Tactical Speed – 21% w2w – PP: Small Inside Out
3 – CAIRO WINNER – has a + EP/LP combo over the rest, some LP improvement in her most recent
2 – CAYMAN QUEEN – TB turf – 3/0-0-2, incrementally getting better from race to race
8 – KHARKIV – Chris P angle, showed some EP in last and maybe better in 2nd off bench and Lasix
5 – EMPIRE GIRL – been getting consistently better late in the last three races
Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Trifecta: 2,3,8/2,3/2,3,4,5,8
Race 6: 1 Mile 40 Yards – Bias: Early Speed – 23% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair 1-7, 8+ Bonus
2 – TRAPPEZOID – Lone E taking a small dip in class back to a level that should be a much better fit
1 – CUZ – 1st off the claim for trainer Jon Arnett, 22% winner vs 17% overall, nice work since the claim
7 – GHOST STALKER – start is everything for this guy, when he is in contention early runs well,
5 – HARD LIGHTING – not an easy call over the 4, TB 6/0-0-5, nice workout in last
Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Pick 4: 1,2,7/3,7,9/3,4,7,8/1,2,6
Race 7: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Bias: Tactical Speed – 16% w2w – PP: Slight Rail Bias, 2+ Fair
9 – SHE’S JUST QUALITY – 3rd after a layoff was best and W in last 3 race cycle, weight break
7 – INVESTMENT INCOME – best turf breeding, distance 6/1-3-0, nice workout between races
3 – WASSER -better ATB in last race, TLRSP# and ran about a half second faster than prior effort
4 – LIZQUEENFLUERDELIS – last race was an improvement over the last time she ran a mile, has some LP so the extra 1/16th mile could help
Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Trifecta: 3,7,9/7,9/3,4,5,7,9
Race 8: 1 Mile 40 Yards – Bias: Early Speed – 23% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair 1-7, 8+ Bonus
3 – ANGELIC STORM – likely to be better in the 3rd start after a layoff and 3rd at TB
8 – WINE WITH A ROSE – major Z pattern in last race, 2/0-0-1
4 – FLASH DEAR – most lightly raced horse in the field and just needs a little pop off the first two to win here
7 – TIPHARAH – TLRSP#, 3rd up and catching a weight break, distance 3/0-1-1
6 – LIFENHOWULIVIT
2 – SUNSHINE GIRL
10 – BYZANTINE EMPIRE
Race 9: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Bias: Tactical Speed – 16% w2w – PP: Slight Rail Bias, 2+ Fair
6 – TAKEOVER KASH – held the lead late as the favorite in last, switch to Samy Camacho tell you tr Maxine Correa thinks horse is ready to graduate
2 – LORD OF THE NILE – if you like the 6, got to like this one to as they have faced off in the last three and not much separating them
1 – STIRLING’S GOLD – MSW dropper from INDY, probably equals? TLRSP# back in June, OK works getting ready for today
4 – REMEMBER THE TUNE – been off for more than a year, drops from last run, works are not inspiring
Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,2,6/2,6/1,2,4,6,8
