This Tampa Bay Downs card is analyzed using structured Smart Sheet metrics including TOTAL PACE, PAR+, TLRSP#, C ZONE, EP/Fractions, class movement, and positional bias modeling.
These selections are built for both traditional bettors and data driven systems looking for structured horse racing data, wagering strategy, and predictive analytics.
Below is the complete race-by-race breakdown.
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Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Mahoning Valley
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Race 1: 1 Mile 40 Yards – Stalkers, 20% w2w – PP: Outside In
5 – CHACARERA – SIM FAV out front with top TOTAL PACE – winner 3/4 at TB
6 – JASSAI – another that likes TB – ITM 8/9 – consistent
3 – MIA’S ANGEL – ran about a second faster in her last
1 – ARIANA VALENTINA – YES horse whose average race is better that the top for most
Race 2: 1 Mile 40 Yards – Stalkers, 20% w2w – PP: Outside In
6 – SWEET NOLA – Top TOTAL PACE – run back to Jan 18th works
3 – CASTAGNA – ITM 4/4 at TB and 6/7 at the distance
7 – BLUE FASHION – absolutely blew it out in her last – 3rd up
4 – CAN DO – major SIM FAV – could be out front – top but low C ZONE – been off since AUG
$0.50 Pick 4: 3,6,7/1,8/1,3,5/1,2,4,5,7
Race 3: 5 ½ Furlongs – Early Speed, 47% w2w – PP: Rail Tough, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Bonus
8 – MEGAN’S HONOR – TLRSP# +3 and SIM FAV – better EP/FRACTIONS drops
1 – MR. SQUEAKY WHEELS – 3SP# increases – better EP and drops
3 – IMTAKINITTOTHEBANK – could be LONE E – better in 2nd up
7 – HAPPY INSTEAD – want to rank higher but jockey 20/0-3-1
Race 4: 6 Furlongs – Early Speed, 37% w2w – PP: Rail tough, 2-7 Best, 8+ Discount
5 – OPPOSITE THE CROWD – TLRSP# +16 – better 5 ways and drops – 3rd up
3 – LADY IN HEELS – should be out front – left arrow and tied top C ZONE
1 – OLGA – TIE for SIM FAV – drops too
4 – FOXY LADY – should be better in the 2nd up
Race 5: 1 Mile Turf – Closers, 22% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2-7 Best, 8+ Discount
5 – JES SEE ME – BIG SIM FAV – 1 of 2 YES horses – Top TOTAL PACE – bullet and go
1 – WISE WORDS –boom or but making 3 starts in a for the 1st time – maintenance work
2 – HIGH YIELD HUNK – the other YES horse –
7 – MAGIC MIKEY – part of the early going with the 5 – Best C ZONE
Race 6: 7 Furlongs – Early Speed, 20% w2w – PP: Rail Bad, 2/3 Best, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Bonus
2 – COALMINER’S KITTEN – TLRSP#+10 and top TOTAL PACE +6 – better 5 Ways
6 – AMERICAN UNITY – right distance 3/2-1-0 – 2nd was by a neck – run that race again = win
5 – JUST RELAX – could be out front and lone class dropper – last race major red flag
4 – SMART STRIKER – better EP and Fractions – best average race
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,6/3,4,5,6,8/1,2,4,6,7/6,9
Race 7: 6 Furlongs – Early Speed, 37% w2w – PP: Rail tough, 2-7 Best, 8+ Discount
6 – RIDING A DREAM – part of the early set up with top C ZONE
4 – KEIGS – only horse to improve fractions last out – 2 works since – horse for the 6 furlong course for sure 8/5-1-1 – just 2 in 9 at any other
3 – PAYNTED WARRIOR – last race better than it looks ran faster early with same final time
5 – ELUSIVE D’ORO – really consistent – but tends to pair and regress- paired last 2
Race 8: 6 1/2 Furlongs – Early Speed, 29% w2w – PP: Rail Hard, 2-7 Best, 8+ Almost Fair
2 – TAPRIXIE – LEFT ARROW YES horse that could be out front with Standout C ZONE
7 – PADRINO’S GOLD – SIM FAV with TOP PAR+ Z Pattern but a volatile performer
4 – ST BERNADETTE – YES Horse better EP/Fractions and drops a little – 2nd up
1 – GO GO STAR – last of the YES hores – 5 ways better – 3rd up and ran well in last 3rd up
6 – HEAVENS EXPRESS – consistent and too big a LP edge +14 to ignore
$40 Win: 2
$5 Exacta Key Box: 2/1,4,6,7
$10 Double: 2/6,9
Race 9: 1 Mile Turf – Closers, 22% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2-7 Best, 8+ Discount
9 – COCKTAIL KISSES – 5 ways better and drops – best PAR +
6 – PROMAJA – TLRSP# +6 – top in race edge +5 LP and +6 Top TOTAL PACE – Left
4 – MIDWAY VOW – SIM FAV – better EP and another taking a small drop
1 – NASHVILLE SLEW – room to be better in 2nd TB try and 2nd up – drops too
