Chris Pomerleau fills in for 22 to 1 Tom. He and the rest of the crew tackle a trio of Saturday Stakes races at Keeneland Racetrack with the final Kentucky Derby points on the line.
We cover:
Keeneland Race 8 – $200,000 GIANT’S CAUSEWAY STAKES
Keeneland Race 9 – $400,000 LEXINGTON STAKES GRADE III
Keeneland Race 10 – $500,000 JENNY WILEY STAKES GRADE I
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Keeneland Race 8 – $200,000 GIANTS CAUSEWAY STAKES
#11 – Goin’ Good ran second to Elle Z in her last race, but I think she will turn the tables this time. She has High % winning trainer Brad Cox and switches to a high winning % jockey Tyler Gaffalione.
#12 – Elle Z has won the last three races in a row, but I think there is some inside speed that ma pressure her (#6 Jouster, #8 Hear My Prayer and #9 Headline Hunter) so that she may fade slightly allowing Goin’ Good to run on by her.
#3 – Campanelle arrived from Europe in October 2021 and ran 3rd in a G3 race. She took a break of 6-months but has been steadily working out for the return to compensation. She is trained by Wesley Ward and ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr. a combo in who the last 14 days has this record (5 2-1-0).
#9 – Headline Hunter has won her last two at Gulfstream Park and has only been out of the money in one of her races during her career so she loves to be in the mix. She two bullet workouts in a row which shows she is fit.
Keeneland Race 9 – $400,000 LEXINGTON STAKES GRADE III
#7– Major General has won two of his last three races, finishing a disappointing 10th in his last race but had a big excuse as he stumbled at the start and lost all chance. He has high % winning trainer Todd Pletcher and switches to high % winning jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. Blinkers added today which may help.
#2– In Due Time has won two out of his four career races, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and the trainer wins 17% of the route races that he has a horse entered in.
#8 Strava has finished in the money in all three of his career races. He finished 3rd in his last race after breaking through the gate before the race went off, but he is perfect at Keenland winning the only race he has ran there.
#11– Call Me Midnight likes the distance of the race and has performed well at Keenland. His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie)
Keeneland Race 10 – $500,000 JENNY WILEY STAKES GRADE I
#3 – Shantisara arrived from France and in her first race bobble at the break and steadied and ran 2nd. She won the next three races the last race was the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup. She has not raced since last October but has been working out steadily including a bullet work on 10Apr Kee Turf 5f gd 1:02.4 B 1/8.
#4 – Regal Glory has won five out of the last seven starts, the last win a G3 at Gulfstream Park and she has a bullet work on 10Apr Kee Turf 5f gd 1:02.4 B 1/8 which matches Shantisara workout.
#6 – Lady Speightspeare won her first four races of her career in Canada, came to the states and has been close but no wins. She has a few decent workouts. She gets a jockey change to Luis Saez which may make a difference.
#5 – Navratilova finished 3rd in her last race after taking a 4-month break, the trainer wins 21% of the races when his entries run in the 2nd race off a layoff and she has a bullet 4F workout on 10Apr Kee Turf 4f gd :49.1 B 1/7.
$1.50 Pick 4-Cost: $96.00
Race 8: 3, 9, 11, 12
Race 9: 2, 7, 8, 11
Race 10: 3, 4, 5, 6
Race 11: 2, 4, 8
Swiss Army Shawn’s Selections
Keeneland Race 8 – $200,000 GIANTS CAUSEWAY STAKES
PACE PROJECTION: With this being a sprint there is multiple speed horses in this race however there is clearly one that is the fastest, that is #12 Elle Z. The question will be how much does she use up to get over from the #12 gate. If she does it without a problem this race is over.
#12 Elle Z– Has won 3 straight races. Has won over this turf before on only 2 tries. This distance and the turf she is 6 for 13 with 2 seconds. Will be the speed of the speed just needs to clear early. This will be the 14th race in a row Jockey Mitchell Murral is aboard her.
#5 Change of Control– Should be about middle pack and will close in on all of the speed ahead of her. Likes Keeneland winning 2 of her 4 starts with a second as well. Has done well against tougher competition in the past.
#11 Goin’ Good– 2nd start after a 7 month break. Has only finished out of the exacta twice in 9 career starts. Both of those races he got bumped or steadied in the beginning of those races. With a clean trip this horse is always in the exacta and right there to win. Has one start at Keeneland and finished 2nd.
Plays: $20 win #12 $1 tribox 5,11,12 $2 Pk 3 5,11,12/ 2,3,7/ 3
Keeneland Race 9 – $400,000 LEXINGTON STAKES GRADE III
PACE PROJECTION: Not a lot of speed in here. Looks like the #7 Major General will get the early lead
#7 Major General– Won his first two career races then had a 6-month layoff before coming back for the Tampa Bay Derby. In that race he stumbled at the beginning and lost all chance. Has a good chance here to get an uncontested early lead which will help his chances. Adding blinkers as well which could only help.
#3 We All See It – Looking for potential at a price and this is the horse. If he runs back to his last race he competes here. The question is can he do that after improving his Beyer number by 36 points? I like the addition of getting Luis Saez aboard and he should be forwardly placed.
#2 In Due Time– Has won 2 of his first 4 career races and didn’t run badly in the other 2 as well. Can be forwardly placed or come off the pace. Has the best Beyer number in the field with his 92 two starts ago.
Plays: $20 win #7 $1 Exbox 2,3,7 $1 Tribox 2,3,7
Keeneland Race 10 – $500,000 JENNY WILEY STAKES GRADE I
PACE PROJECTION: The two outside horses look to be the speed #5 Naratilova and #6 Lady Speightspheare. The 2 ML favorites will be next in line looking to track the front runners down at the end.
#3 Shantisara– Has won 3 of her 4 races here in the US. The only one she lost was her first race here and also at Monmouth without the whip. Has been off for 6 months and looks like she’s ready to go as the workouts have been decent. There should be enough pace in here to keep everyone honest and help her chances.
#4 Regal Glory– Has won 10 of 17 starts and is 2 for 2 at this distance. Should be forwardly placed. Has been off for over 2 months as there are a lot of gaps in her racing. The biggest reason I chose the other favorite over her is that Regal Glory has only lost 7 races 3 of them are at Keeneland. She has never won her just 2 seconds in 3 starts.
#6 Lady Speightspheare– Has won 4 of 7 career races and has always been in tough races. Has speed and needs to use it here. Her chance to win this is can she get loose on the lead? The only horse in this field that has put a recent string of races together without a layoff.
Plays: $2 Tribox 3,4,6
Chris Pomerleau’s Picks
Keeneland Race 8 – $200,000 GIANTS CAUSEWAY STAKES
# 12 ELLE Z (3:1)
• Top rated and best of the early speed where 7/14 (50%) of the races have gone wire to wire.
• Speed figures at par, 6 for 13 at the distance. Loves this distance
• Jockey Mitchell Murrill (42%) with trainer.
# 6 JOUSTER (12:1) VALUE PLAY
• Competitive speed figures, going route to sprint but don’t believe it will be an issue.
• Flavian Prat on the turf
• Won G2 going 1 m on the turf.
# 11 GOIN GOOD (8:1)
• Win/Place in 5 of 7 starts at the distance
• Switch to Tyler Gafflione who has had success on prior mounts. 3 races, 2 wins and other start the horse stumbled out of the gate.
SUGGESTED BETS: Exactas 12/6,11 and 6,11/12. Double 6,11,12/R9 (2) IN DUE TIME, Pick 3 (6,11,12/2/3,4)
Keeneland Race 9 – $400,000 LEXINGTON STAKES GRADE III
# 2 IN DUE TIME (3:1) VALUE PLAY
• May be the class of the class in this race. 2nd in FOY, lost to Simplification.
• Trainer could have opted for other spots with a chance to gather enough derby points, but the Lexington and the 20-points was the choice. This is a must win to get to the derby.
• Odds will probably be 9/5 range at post time, I like at odds of 2:1++.
#2 MAJOR GENERAL (4:1)
• Stumbled last start, toss that race.
• Irad Ortiz rides
• May take a step forward.
The Rest: 4 Call Me Midnight (6:1) can come from the back if he gets the right pace to run into, 9 Tawny Port (5:2) has competitive pace figures, finished 2nd to Tiz the Bomb, 10 Dash Attack (10:1) ran well in the Smarty Jones on an off track could be sneaky on the back end.
SUGGESTED BETS: Win 2 IN DUE TIME
Keeneland Race 10 – $500,000 JENNY WILEY STAKES GRADE I
# 4 REGAL GLORY (7:5)
• Top rated, 2 for 2 at the distance.
• Jose Ortiz and Chad Brown connections
• Chad Brown on the turf over a mile distance, must use.
# 3 SHANTISARA (6:5)
• 2nd rated, Flavian Prat on the turf at Keeneland has been fire.
• Chad Brown angle on turf with multiple entries, must play them both as I think this is a coin flip on who wins.
• May want a little more distance than what they get today.
# 2 WALIYAK (6:1)
• Pace advantage as the lone presser in the race. If Pace Makes the Race this would be a good horse to key in verticals.
• Coming from Woodbine and does have some back class.
SUGGESTED BETS: Exacta 3,4/2, Trifecta 3,4/3,4/2
Rich’s Ranks
Keeneland Race 8 – $200,000 GIANTS CAUSEWAY STAKES
12 – Elle Z
6 – Jouster
3 – Campanelle
9 – Headline Hunter
Keeneland Race 9 – $400,000 LEXINGTON STAKES GRADE III
8 – Strava
2 – In Due Time
4 – Ethereal Road
1 – Midnight Chrome
Keeneland Race 10 – $500,000 JENNY WILEY STAKES GRADE I
3 – Shantisara
4 – Regal Glory
5 – Navratilova
2 – Waliyak
