Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 10 – Louisiana Champions Day Sprint Stakes
#5 – Bertie’s Galaxy has won three of his last four races, winning his last race by 3-1/2 lengths. The trainer wins 26% of the races when he brings a horse back that won its last race. He has won 50% of his races at the Fair Grounds racetrack and has a bullet 4F workout on 03Dec FG 4f ft :47.2 B 1/69.
#2 – Monte Man closed to finish 3rd in his last race earning the highest last race speed rating. He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and a good 4F workout on 03Dec FG 4f ft :48.2B 9/69. He likes the track winning six out of nine races at Fairgrounds Racetrack.
#7 – Pickens has finished in the money 70% of the time this year and won 50% of the races. He likes the distance and track.
#10 – No Parole has won two out of two races at the Fair Grounds. His first race back after a break of 6 months did not end very well but he has some very good workouts since then so I will throw the last race out. The shorter distance should help, and the trainer wins 25% when bringing a beaten favorite back to its next race.
Race 11 – Louisiana Champions Day Turf Stakes
#1– Mangelsen has won three of his last four races, winning his last race by 1-3/4 lengths and earning the highest last race speed rating. He likes the turf finishing in the money in twelve out of thirteen races winning six of those races.
#4– Jeb’s Lucky Eight won his last start at the Fair Grounds Racetrack, his second race on the turf where he has won both.
#5 – Who Took the Money has won three of his starts at the Fairgrounds Racetrack on the dirt. He did not take to the sloppy track last race and tries turf for the second time.
#3– Carlea’s Dream won five races out of fifteen races on the turf and finished five other races in second place. The distance of the race will not present any problem as he has won three out of four races.
Race 12 – Louisiana Champions Day Lassie Stakes
#8 – Dream On It is two for two in her career, winning the last race at the Fair Grounds Racetrack. She has high % Jockey Reylu Gutierrez and her early speed running style helps her chances.
#5 – Free Like a Girl has won three races in a row and has never finished out of the money in her eight racing. The trainer wins 60% of Non-Graded Stakes that he enters a horse in.
#10 – Won Day won her maiden race after being well bet in her debut. She has a few decent workouts.
#7 – Basalt Street won her last race at the Fair Grounds Racetrack easily. She has finished in the money in all three of her career races at three different tracks.
$1.50 Pick 3-Cost: $96.00
Race 6: 2, 5, 7, 10
Race 7: 1, 3, 4, 5
Race 8: 5, 7, 8, 10
Swiss Army Shawn’s Selections
Race 10 – Louisiana Champions Day Sprint Stakes
PACE PROJECTION: No shortage of speed in here at a distance and track you want to be on or close to the lead. There is only three horses in this race that wants to come off the pace #2 Monte Man, #3 Hail State, #9 Izzy’s Bad Boy. All the rest want to be on the lead or really close to the pace.
#10 No Parole– A perfect 2 for 2 at Fairgrounds and 3 for 5 at the distance. Has been working out great since last race a month and a half ago. Speed and outside posts have been really good so far this meet.
#2 Monte Man– Loves Fairgrounds winning 6 of 9 races with 2 thirds. Plenty of pace in here for this horse to run at from around mid-pack.
#5 Bertie’s Galaxy – Will be part of the pace and if he gets the lead look out. Likes Fairgrounds winning half his races 4 of 8 with two seconds. Working out greet since last race 2 months ago. In his career has finished in the exacta in 14 of his 20 starts.
Plays: $20 win #10 $ 1 exbox 2,5,10 $1 tribox 2,5,10
Race 11 – Louisiana Champions Day Turf Stakes
PACE PROJECTION: There’s only three horses in this race that will show pace most notably the horse from the rail #1 Mangelsen who I predict will end up with the early lead. The other two projected for early speed would be #8 Get Them Justin and #9 I’m a Cowboy Too.
#1 Mangelsen– So far in the meet almost 40% of the horses in this race on the turf have gone wire to wire. I project #1 Mangelsen to be the early leader so good chance he goes all the way. Has won 2 of 3 at Fairgrounds and has finished in the exacta at this distance in 10 of 13 races. Has won 4 of 6 races this year as a 5-year-old.
#2 Highland Creek– Won and broke his maiden on his only turf start. Will be close to the pace and should get a nice trip. If you throw out his 2 off track starts, he has finished in the exacta in 5 of 6 starts winning half of them.
#4 Jeb’s Lucky Eight– 2 for 2 on Turf including 1 for 1 at Fairgrounds. Will be coming from mid pack. Gets James Graham back up after winning last race at Fairgrounds and on the turf.
Plays: $20 win #1 $1 Exbox 1,2,4 $1 Tribox 1,2,4
Race 12 – Louisiana Champions Day Lassie Stakes
PACE PROJECTION: I see one of four horses here getting the lead early. The speed will come from #7- #10. Out of those the #10 Won Day coming off a 5 furlong race where he wired the field might be the one to get the early lead.
#8 Dream On It– 2 for 2 lifetime with both wins coming by more than 4 lengths. Will be close to the pace early. Won last race at the same distance, same jockey, and same track. Reylu Gutierrez has had a great year and a great start to this meet.
#7 Basalt Street– Won last race impressively which was her first time at Fairgrounds and with Mitchel Murril. In three races never finished worse than second. Will be close to the pace but doesn’t need the lead.
#5 Feel Like a Girl– The most experienced horse in the field as this will be her 9th race. Has never finished out of the trifecta and has won 3 in a row. Pedro Cotto Jr. has won 4 of 5 races with her.
Plays: $24 win #8 $1 exbox 5,7,8 $1 tribox 5,7,8
22 to 1 Tom’s Tips
Race 10 – Louisiana Champions Day Sprint Stakes
6 – Swot Analysis
• Toss last, appears to not like the turf
• Good run, on the frontend in high priced allowance race at Woodbine on the AW then over his head in the Derby G3 race, speed then backed up in the final furlong
• Has won his maiden race at Fairground vs state-breds
• Mark Casse trained
7 – Pickens
• Likes Delta Downs muddy in last race, speed off at 5F and won, nice speed rating of 89
• Faced less open company at Louisiana Downs to run 2nd
• Claimed for 12,5k on a win at LD from Steve Asmussen
• Runs on the frontend and will need to break well to have a change
• Only 1 win at FG but placed in 3 races out of 6 starts
4 – Sir Wellington
• One race last year at FG in state-bred race was a win in the muddy
• He’s been running in good company in overnight stakes and OC100k
• Hugh Robertson record in non-grade stakes races at 41% and 47% in the money, so he wins or out with positive ROI
• Working at OP with a maintenance work
Race 11 – Louisiana Champions Day Turf Stakes
6 – Who Took the Money
• Toss last, didn’t get out of the starting gate but he has misbehaved in paddock, post parade and starting gate so why pick?
• He’s first 3 races were vs state-breds were wins from 6F to 1 1/16
• Won a cheaper race at ID in October with a slow start
• At CD on the turf, he sat behind the pace swung out and didn’t finish
• Consider he record vs state-bred and if he doesn’t misbehave again, he has a chance to win
2 – Highland Creek
• Lovely win last out at 6 1/2F by 7L
• Maiden win at FG last year was on the turf sitting on the frontend
• I like the gate work at CD for prepare for this race
• If he can get at lead, watch out
3 – Carlea’s Dream
• 15 starts with 5 wins 5 seconds and 1 third on the turf
• He’s 3 for 4 at this distance
• He beat some of the horses at LD in a state-bred stakes race
• My issue is the layoff, or I would have picked him to win
Race 12 – Louisiana Champions Day Lassie Stakes
6 – Medley
• Winner last out vs open company maidens, showed speed and got the top speed rating vs the rest of the field
• Steve Asmussen trained to face this bunch
• Run in the money in all her races
8 – Dream On It
• 2 races 2 wins in state-bred races
• Claimed for 30k from Dallas Stewart
• If she runs back to her last race, she could win
2 – Wholelottamo
• Maiden winner at LS then a winner at LD vs state-breds
• At DD, didn’t fair so well at 7F, was 2 turns the issue? Mild bid though
• Overall the horse has run well and state company maybe the best place for her
Rich’s Ranks
Race 10 – Louisiana Champions Day Sprint Stakes
5 – Bertie’s Galaxy
2 – Monte Man
4 – Sir Wellington
6 – Swot Analysis
Race 11 – Louisiana Champions Day Turf Stakes
1 – Mangelsen
2 – Highland Creek
3 – Carlea’s Dream
4 – Jeb’s Lucky Eight
Race 12 – Louisiana Champions Day Lassie Stakes
8 – Dream On It
5 – Free Like a Girl
7 – Basalt Street
6 – Medley
