Just The Beatles of handicapping, Terry, Tom, Shawn and Rich make their picks for Del Mar’s biggest weekend.
Del Mar Race 9 – $300,000 DEL MAR DERBY GRADE II
Del Mar Race 10 – $1M PACIFIC CLASSIC STAKES GRADE I
Del Mar Race 11 – $300,000 DEL MAR HANDICAP GRADE II
Del Mar Horse Racing Picks and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Del Mar Race 9 – $300,000 DEL MAR DERBY GRADE II
7 – Mackinnon finished in the money in six out of nine career races, finishing 4th in the last race after having trouble. He has a high % winning jockey, his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters and has a good 4F workout on Aug-27th.
3 – War At Sea has won three races in a row with Mike Smith in the irons and returns to ride him again. He is moving up in class, but I like when horses keep moving up in class and this horse likes winning, and Smith knows just what to do to win with this horse.
9 – Balnikhov has done well since arriving from France finishing in the money in three out of four starts, wining the last race easily. He has the highest last race speed rating and has a good 4F workout on Aug-28th.
1 – Cabo Spirit has never finished out of the money on the turf, winning his last race at Del Mar a Grade 3 contest his second win out of three races at Del Mar.
Del Mar Race 10 – $1M PACIFIC CLASSIC STAKES GRADE I
5 – Flightline has done nothing but win effortlessly and is going for the 5th win in a row stretching out to 1-1/4. He only has two questions to answer, if he gets pressure will he withstand it and can he do two turns. I think he will answer yes to both questions.
3 – Royal Ship closed to win his last race at Del Mar the G2 San Diego Handicap, he is ridden by jockey Mike Smith who in last 7 days has won three out of six starts and he has a good 4F workout on Aug-28.
2 – Country Grammer returned from Dubai after winning the Dubai World Cup and finished 2nd as the favorite in the G2 San Diego Handicap, beaten by Royal Ship. He is trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by John Velazquez.
4 – Express Train won three races in a row, finished 2nd as the favorite in his last race a Grade 2 contest and then took a break of 4-months. He has been working steadily for his return to today’s contest and has done well in the past when taking a break finishing well in his first race back.
Del Mar Race 11 – $300,000 DEL MAR HANDICAP GRADE II
6 – Tizamagician likes to go to the front and lead the race to the finish line for the win. He finished 2nd at Del Mar in his last race, a 1-1/2-mile contest and cuts back to 1-3/8 miles which may be just what he needs especially if Masteroffoxhounds does not pressure too much.
2 – Gold Phoenix has finished in the money in all seven of his career races, winning two of the starts. He is trained by Philip D’Amato and ridden by Flavien Prat.
4 – Red King finished in the money in eight out of twelve races at Del Mar and has finished in the money in six of nine starts at today’s distance, winning two of the starts in both situations.
10 – Masteroffoxhounds best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and he has a trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-1-0).
$50 Pick 4 – Cost $96.00
Race 8: 4, 5, 6, 9
Race 9: 1, 3, 7, 9
Race 10: 2, 3, 5
Race 10: 2, 4, 6, 10
Swiss Army Shawn’s Selections
Del Mar Race 9 – $300,000 DEL MAR DERBY GRADE II
PACE PROJECTION: Not much pace here there are only 2 horses that looked like they may go for the lead. #2 Slow Down Andy who will be making his turf debut and has speed from the gate. #8 Barsabas is normally forwarded place and was out front early last race which was the first time Diego Herrera was aboard.
#3 War At Sea– Has won three races in a row and is head away from it being 4. Has improved his speed number in each of the last five races. Last year started his career on dirt and wasn’t successful at all in three starts. Came back this year and has been racing exclusively on turf and has done very well. Mike Smith has been aboard for his last three races and victories and will be again here.
#1 Cabo Spirit– Loves the turf winning three of six races and never finishing outside the trifecta. Can run any style and in a race like this could track a couple speed horses and go on from there. Has won two of three races at Del Mar with a third. Has improved his speed number in each of the last 5 races.
#7 Mackinnon– Had some issues his last race where had to steady and such. He ended up out of the money but three horses from that race came back to win. The turf races before that were all really good so with a clean trip should perform well. Making second start back after a five month layoff.
Plays: $20 win #3 $1 exbox 1,3,7 $1 tribox 1,3,7
Del Mar Race 10 – $1M PACIFIC CLASSIC STAKES GRADE I
PACE PROJECTION: Who’s going to try and go with Flightline in here? There are other speed horses but not sure you wants to try and go with him and risk that their horse has nothing left.
#5 Flightline– Has raced four times and has blown each field away. He’s had a couple bad starts and still crushes the field. This field is not as talented and deep as some of his previous competition. He has never gone this far and has never been tested coming to the wire.
#4 Express Train– The only horse in the field who has won at Del Mar more than once. He has won three times out of five tries with a second as well. Has been off for 4 months but the trainer John Shirriffs does well with layoffs like this. His speed number has improved each of his last 6 races.
#3 Royal Ship– He beat the second choice #2 Country Grammar last time out by over 2 lengths. He also beat him by a neck in April and lost by a head in May. The odds difference really should not be with all that stated. Mike Smith has won at 24% so far this meet.
Plays: $10 Ex 5/3,4 $2 Tri 5/3,4/1,3,4
Del Mar Race 11 – $300,000 DEL MAR HANDICAP GRADE II
PACE PROJECTION: #6 Tizamagician looks to be the pacesetter with the #10 Masteroffoxhounds tracking from the outside post.
#2 Gold Phoenix– Has been consistent finishing in the trifecta in all 7 of his career races. Gets a Jockey change and gets Flavien Prat back who rode him to two second place finishes early in his career. Should be closer to the pace in this race and have a good shot at the end.
#10 Masteroffoxhounds– Should get a nice trip from the outside behind probale pacesetter #6 Tizmagician. This will be the fifth straight race Juan Hernandez is aboard him and had some good results the previous four. He has been on the rail in his last two starts which has not helped his case. Is one of only two horses in this field to have a win at this distance. The other is the #4 Red King who has two.
#9 Master Piece– Likes Del Mar winning one and finishing second in the two races he’s raced there so far. Will be coming from deep late. Will probably need a faster pace than what is projected to get the job done but will be around at the end.
PLAYS: $20 win #2 $1 Exbox 2,9,10 $1 Tribox 2,9,10
Just Tom’s Tips
Del Mar Race 9 – $300,000 DEL MAR DERBY GRADE II
7 – Mackinnon
Favorite last time out, ran 4th after a 5-month layoff. Steadied at one point and was very keen early in the race. Definitely needed that race.
Good record at Del Mar – 4 starts 2 wins 1 third
He’s 2 other races this year were interesting choice, Ran in the 1-mile Sham grade 3 on the dirt. Not much.
Then was shipped to GG for a 1 1/8 races on the AW and closed to be 2nd.
Off his last race, this looks like the right race for him to win
3 – War At Sea
3 wins in a row with Mike Smith riding, maiden, OC100k and stakes race.
Since the switch to the turf, that made all the difference because he’s dirt race sucked
He hasn’t raced since June, but the works are even and he should be ready to roll
Ron Ellis doesn’t have a lot of starters this season but he knows his way around.
1 – Cabo Spirit
Won his last start at DMR in the grade 3 LaJolla coming from back and a 4 wide move
Lost to my second choice the race before
Never out of the money on the turf
Should put in a good effort here
Del Mar Race 10 – $1M PACIFIC CLASSIC STAKES GRADE I
2 – Country Grammer
Ran second last out in San Diego grade 2 but really needed a race after his starts in Saudi Arabia and Dubai. This is true of many horses that race over there and come back in my opinion
I really believe that the worst race this horse ran was in the Travers
Works are very good coming into this race
Is he as fast as Flightline? No, but his shown that he can battle with the of them and come in on top
4 – Express Train
Ran a good 2nd last out after winning 3 in a row
He’s a fighter and likes this distance and will be very completive until the end
He’s lost to and beaten some of these horses and the record on 7 wins from 18 starts show what has done
Works are nice and he has won at DMR 3 times from 5 starts
6 – Flightline
Undefeated and distance up to 1 mile and tries the 1 ¼ for the first time
He’s knocked down good horses by big margins
But I look at horses like Life is Good who couldn’t get the 1 ¼ distance and this is a horse never around 2 turns and never even really challenged.
Now he faces experienced horses who have won at this distance at the top level of racing
The 1 million purchase has been great so far, now can continue to show his racing ability here.
They are comparing him with Baaeed and except for the surfaces, they are both very good, but Baaeed has won 10 times and 9 of those races were at 1 mile, he added distance last out, no problem but very different types of tracks
Del Mar Race 11 – $300,000 DEL MAR HANDICAP GRADE II
4 – Red King
He ran 2nd last out missing by a head after being boxed in. Jockey had plenty of horse. That race was in June
He wants distance races but had won at 7 ½ too
Good works all on the turf coming into this race
New jockey for this 8 yr old and after 41 starts, he’s done very well
2 – Gold Phoenix
Never out of the money in all this 7 starts
Last out 3rd at DMR in OC80k, steps up again to try graded company
Closer to the pace in the race at SA, last race further back to come on late.
He did place in a graded race before
My thinking is he will be closer to the pace and the switch back to Flavien Prat helps
6 – Tizmagican
All his races have been on the dirt so why the surface switch?
Well, his bred of the turf and has a sibling that has won on the turf
He has speed and could very well “steal” this race on the frontend or he could run more tactical.
I think Mike Smith puts him on the lead and says come and catch me
Rich’s Ranks
Del Mar Race 9 – $300,000 DEL MAR DERBY GRADE II
9 – BALNIKHOV
7 – MACKINNON
1 – CABO SPIRIT
2 – SLOW DOWN ANDY
Del Mar Race 10 – $1M PACIFIC CLASSIC STAKES GRADE I
5 – FLIGHTLINE
2 – COUNTRY GRAMMER
4 – EXPRESS TRAIN
3 – ROYAL SHIP
Del Mar Race 11 – $300,000 DEL MAR HANDICAP GRADE II
10 – MASTEROFFOXHOUNDS
6 – TIZAMAGICIAN
11 – HEYWOODS BEACH
9 – MASTER PIECE
