Fresh off his championship run, Handicapper of the Year, David Harrison shares some of his secrets and will put his skills to work for Saturday’s biggest races at Tampa Bay Downs, including:
Race 7 – $225,000 HILLSBOROUGH STAKES
Race 9 – $200,000 FLORIDA OAKS
Race 11 – $400,000 TAMPA BAY DERBY
Tampa Bay Downs Horse Racing Picks and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Tampa Bay Downs Race 7 – $225,000 HILLSBOROUGH STAKES – GRADE II
5 – Bleecker Street has won four of her four career races and doesn’t know what is to lose. Trained by Chad Brown who in the last 14 days has finished in the money five out of five races, winning two. The race is extended out to 1-1/8 miles which looks like it fits her running style.
2 – Take Charge Ro won her last race at Gulfstream Park which was switched from the turf to the main track and shows she can run on both surfaces. The forecast in the area for Saturday morning is 80% chance of rain, possibly heavy so there’s some chance the turf races could be moved to dirt, which may help her performance.
6 – Rocky Sky had a terrible first race since coming over from Ireland being wide throughout the race. Another entry trained by Chad Brown and is ridden by jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr.; Lasix added. She has good workouts in preparation for this race.
3 – Lady Speightspeare finished 2nd losing to Bleecker Street at 1-1/16 miles where her early speed did not hold up. It could be hard for her to overcome the extra 1/16 of a mile.
Tampa Race 9 – $200,000 FLORIDA OAKS – GRADE III
6 – Spicer comes in from Aqueduct after winning her last race on the turf at today’s distance. She has high % winning trainer Chad Brown who wins 31% of the races when bringing a horse back to run after breaking their maiden; Lasix is added.
9 – Ambitieuse has finished in the money in all three career races, finishing second in her last race a G3 affair and received the highest last race speed rating. Her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and she has Lasix added for this race.
5 – Sweet Dutchess is a closer who just missed winning her last race by a head. She continues to improve in each race, likes Tampa Bay and the distance is something she can handle.
7 – Alittleloveandluck has won two of her three last races running second in her last race “The Suncoast” losing to the nice filly Nest. She has a nice workout on 06Mar Tam 4f ft :49 B 13/90 and has Lasix added for this contest. She is the main speed and will be hard to catch whether “The Florida Oaks” is run on dirt or turf.
Tampa Race 11 – $400,000 TAMPA BAY DERBY – GRADE II
4 – Classic Causeway has finished in the money in his last three races, all graded contests. He has the highest last race speed rating; a good trainer and jockey and he has a good 5F workout on 05Mar Pmm 5f ft :59.4 B 2/31.
8 – Major General is two for two in his young career, the last win being a G3 affair. He is trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by jockey Javier Castellano. He appears to be able to run on top or come from off the pace to win a race.
9 – Shipsational ran 2nd in last race, a G3 contest. His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and he has a bullet 4F workout on 06Mar Tam 4f ft :47.3 B 1/90.
11 – Money Supply won his debut race despite being bumped at the start, received a 91 Beyer number, and now tries two turns. He is trained by Chad Brown and jockey Jose Ortiz in the irons.
$.50 Pick 5 – Cost $96.00
Race 7: 2, 3, 5, 6
Race 8: 1, 3, 4
Race 9: 5, 6, 7, 9
Race 10: 1, 6
Race 11: 4, 8
Swiss Army Shawn’s Selections
Tampa Bay Downs Race 7 – $225,000 HILLSBOROUGH STAKES – GRADE II
PACE PROJECTION: Not a ton of speed in this race. Three horses that want to be on or near the lead #3 Lady Speightspeare, #4 Gladys, and #9 Nantucket Red. The #3 should be your early leader.
#3 Lady Speightspeare- Speed is dangerous on Tampa’s turf and I think this is your early leader. In her Tampa Bay debut last race she was pressured throughout and had to hold on for 2nd. She loves the turf winning 3 of 5 with a 2nd and a 3rd. Emma Jayne Wilson has been on her all 5 starts and will be again on Saturday.
#5 Bleecker Street- Unbeaten in all 4 of her starts and has had 2 at Tampa. Has gotten better each race. I don’t think there will be enough pace here for her to catch the runaway early leader. She will definitely be coming and will be in the exotics hopefully the exacta.
#2 Take Charge Ro- She likes to be mid pack but can also be close to the pace so that will help here. Has only been out of the trifecta in 1 of 8 races on the turf. Enough to like here especially with strong connections for her to get a piece.
Plays: $20 win #3 $1 Tri 3,5/3,5/all $1 Tri 3,5/all/3,5
Tampa Race 9 – $200,000 FLORIDA OAKS – GRADE III
PACE PROJECTION: There is absolutely zero pace in this race. The only horse with speed and I would imagine your early leader is #7 Alittleloveandluck. To the inside of her #5 Sweet Dutchess and #6 Spicer will be sitting behind the early leader. The rest will try to close from the back.
#7 Alittleloveandluck- In a paceless race I’m taking the horse with the speed. If all goes right, she is loose on the lead. She also gets Lasix for the first time which should only help. She has Paco in town who has ridden her the last 3 races with a lot of success.
#5 Sweet Dutchess- Will be close enough to the pace that if it’s slow she will benefit. Her last 2 races were her first races on turf and both were at Tampa. She finished first and second.
#3 Dolce Zel- Really strong connections with Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz. They are really strong anywhere but their limited numbers at Tampa are ridiculously good. Not sure where she’ll be with the pace, but I would have to imagine she’ll be around at the end.
Plays: $20 win #7 $1 Exbox 3,5,7 $1 Tri box 3,5,7
Tampa Race 11 – $400,000 TAMPA BAY DERBY – GRADE II
PACE PROJECTION: There is some speed in this one. The #2 Trademark, #3 Classic Causeway, #8 Major General, and #9 Shipsational all have speed. It will be a fast enough pace but not a suicidal one.
#4 Classic Causeway- Was really impressive last start in his win in the Sam F. Davis which was his first start at Tampa Bay. He beat some of these horses already and this might actually be even an easier spot. Workouts have been really impressive as well since that win. Only thing would be he doesn’t need this win to be in the Derby.
#8 Major General- Has won both of his starts at 2 different tracks. Now comes off a layoff and we will see how much talent this horse has. Both wins were by a neck but one was won by being up front and the other was closing. We will trust that Chad Brown will have this horse ready to fire.
#11 Money Supply- Has only one race and it was a victory. Now steps up big time but that last race showed a lot and it was a 91 Beyer. Tons of upside here and you have Chad Brown and Jose Ortiz. Workouts have been really good since that race as well.
Plays: $10 Exacta 4/8,11 $1 Tribox 4,8,11 $1 exbox 4,8,11
22 to 1 Tom’s Tampa Bay Tips
Tampa Bay Downs Race 7 – $225,000 HILLSBOROUGH STAKES – GRADE II
4-Gladys
Big winner in last race at less level, tried better in Topical Park Oaks w/o success (w/o Lasix too)
Has faced top company in allowance race in the past, so compete here too
Different type of race run last time on the lead, will this make the difference here
Will need to get the lead and should be able from post 4, just a question how much she gets pressed
Hot jockey in last 7 days
5-Bleecker Street
Undefeated with 1 run at Tampa in grade 3
She’s run up the rail in 2 races or swing outside and waited for a spot to go
Today, should sit back and wait for one good run
Slow developing horse who’s need time/care under Chad Brown
8-Jezebel’s Kitten
Same race as Bleecker Street at Tampa last out and swing wide (very wide) and made up some ground
Has run well since being transferred from Brad Cox, with 2 4th and 1 3rd
Breakthrough here with a in the money finish
Tampa Race 9 – $200,000 FLORIDA OAKS – GRADE III
9-Ambiteuse
Fast finish last out in grade 3 at GP, wide but had plenty of run left
Needed race vs winners
Maiden winner on all-weather at GP
First time Lasix may help
Placed in all races so far
Sit midpack with good start and moves late to catch this bunch
5-Sweet Dutchess
Last 2 races at Tampa were a maiden win and OC75K race running 2nd
Turf has made the difference after average runs on dirt and all-weather
Trainers record in graded stakes races is good, 14 races 21% win and 57% in the money
Could win but more likely run second again
3-Dolce Zei
Winner last out at Longchamp but it a sprint 61/2F
First was at a minor track running a very poor 7F
Now 2 turns, tighter turf course but right trainer to have her ready
Works show she appears to be ready for big effort here
Tampa Race 11 – $400,000 TAMPA BAY DERBY – GRADE II
10-Belgrade
2 runs – 2 wins both at sprints 6F & 7F
Stumbled at the start last time out, wide and still won
Appears to be a stalker and will have pace to run at
2 turns shouldn’t be an issue
700k purchase who looks like a classic horse?
11-Money Supply
1 run 1 win at 6F
Another one who had issues at the start, gave a 11L advance to the front runners and blew past them to win by 2L
Jose Ortiz rode him in the debut and rides again
2 turns should be an issue
Heavily back in debut and should be again but not the favorite
Chad Brown has done well at Tampa
Don’t like the outside post but if he can over come moves to bigger things
8-Major General
Coming back off layoff and a grade 3 winner at CD
Last race, urged to go being wide and hung on
Works appear to be good and won at first asking at Saratoga
I don’t know how good the win was at Churchill because the only next out winner finished last in this race in an allowance race
Win? He may need a race but trained by Todd Pletcher who’s winning at Tampa at a 41% rate
Rich’s Ranks
Tampa Bay Downs Race 7 – $225,000 HILLSBOROUGH STAKES – GRADE II
3 – LADY SPEIGHTSPEARE
5 – BLEECKER STREET
4 – GLADYS
7 – RUNAWAY RUMOUR
Tampa Race 9 – $200,000 FLORIDA OAKS – GRADE III
6 – SPICER
3 – DOLCE ZEL
5 – SWEET DUTCHESS
9 – AMBITIEUSE
Tampa Race 11 – $400,000 TAMPA BAY DERBY – GRADE II
9 – SHIPSATIONAL
4 – CLASSIC CAUSEWAY
11 – MONEY SUPPLY
10 – BELGRADE
