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The Player’s Edge with David Aragona

The Players Edge

The Player’s Edge with David Aragona

NYRA oddsmaker Daivid Aragona is this week’s guest. He’ll join us to talk about his Saratoga observations and what it takes to make the morning lines for some of the world’s most competitive horse racing.

David joins the regular crew, and they’ll make their Saratoga picks including:

Saratoga Race 9 – $600,000 PERSONALS ENSIGN STAKES GRADE I
Saratoga Race 10 – $750,000 SWORD DANCER STAKES GRADE I
Saratoga Race 11 – $1.25 M TRAVERS STAKES GRADE I

Saratoga Horse Racing Tips

Terry’ Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping

Saratoga Race 9 – $600,000 PERSONALS ENSIGN STAKES GRADE I

3 –    Clairiere has won two races in a row, has high % winning trainer Steven Asmussen and jockey Joel Rosario. She has the highest last race speed rating and the highest speed figure at today’s distance.

5 –    Malathaat has finished in the money in eleven out of eleven career races, winning seven of the contests including the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks. She is trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by John Velazquez a combo who in last 14 days has this record (5 2-0-1).

2 –    Search Results has finished in the money in the last ten races, winning six of the contests including the Grade 1 Acorn. She is trained by Chad Brown and ridden by Flavien Prat and has a good 4F workout on Aug-20.

1 –    Letruska has won nineteen races out of twenty-six starts, she took a 2-month plus break after finishing 5th in her last race and returns with a good 4F workout on Aug-19. She will again try to lead all the way to the finish line.

 

Saratoga Race 10 – $750,000 SWORD DANCER STAKES GRADE I

6 –    Gufo has finished in the money in sixteen out of eighteen career races, winning eight of the contests. In addition, he likes the distance, winning three out of five race and has a good 4F workout on Aug-19.

3 –    Broome is coming in from Europe where he has done very well in graded races, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters, and he performs well at today’s distance.

8 –    Soldier Rising is moving up in class from his last start which he won at Saratoga. He has finished in the money in 100% of his starts at 1-1/2 miles and likes to race at Saratoga. Jockey Irad Ortiz is in the irons, and he is trained by Christophe Clement.

1 –    Adhamo has never finished out of the money since arriving from France, winning his last race at Monmouth Park the Grade 1 United Nations. He is trained by Chad Brown and ridden by Flavien Prat and has a good 4F workout on Aug-19.

 

Saratoga Race 11 – $1.25 M TRAVERS STAKES GRADE I

6 –    Epicenter has finished in the money in eight out of nine career races, winning five of the contests. He finished 2nd in both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness. He won the grade 2 Jim Dandy in his last race at 1-1/8 miles and stretches out to 1-1/4 miles where he has done well in the past.

8 –    Zandon has never finished out of the money in his six-race career winning the grade 1 Blue Grass. He is trained by Chad Brown and ridden by Flavien Prat and has only competed in grades 1 & 2 contest.

1 –    Cyberknife has won four out of six races this year and just seems to be getting better with each race receiving a 104-speed rating in his last race while winning the Grade 1 Haskell. He is trained by Brad Cox whose entries in the last 14 days has finished in the money in six out of seven races, winning three and Cyberknife has a good 5F workout on Aug-20.

5 –    Artorius won his last race at Saratoga improving in each race as the distance of the races increases, and his speed rating improves in each race.

$1.50 Pick 3 – Cost $96.00

Race 9:   1, 2, 3, 5

Race 10: 1, 3, 6, 8

Race 11: 1, 5, 6, 8

 

Swiss Army Shawn’s Selections 

Saratoga Race 9 – $600,000 PERSONALS ENSIGN STAKES GRADE I 

PACE PROJECTION: #1 Letruska should get the lead from the rail. The other horse who could go is Search Results but I don’t think Pratt will be as aggressive as Irad was the last time they faced. The rest are hoping these two hook up again and set it up for the others.

#1 Letruska–  Has had poor performances before and came back and was the same old Letruska winning. I think it happens again and the key might be that Flavian Prat is on Search Results not Irad. I don’t think Flavien will be as aggressive and pressure Letruska which killed her chances last time out. She has won at Saratoga twice before in just three races. Jose Ortiz has won four times on Letruska his only lost on her was last time out.

#3 Clairiere– Has been in prime form with three consecutive races with a triple digit speed number.  She’s only won at this distance once out of four tries but that one was last time out. Joel Rosario back aboard for the fifth straight race he has won three of four on her so far. Has only been the betting favorite twice in her career and she won both.

#5 Malathaat– Has finished in the exacta in ten of eleven career races while winning seven of those. Gets the outside post and is hoping for a couple to hook up on the front end. 

Plays:  $20 to win #1 $5 exbox 1,3 

 

Saratoga Race 10 – $750,000 SWORD DANCER STAKES GRADE I

PACE PROJECTION:  There are only two horses in here that want to be on the early lead the #7 Tibhuvan and the #9 Channel Maker. If one of them gets free it could be over from the start.

 

#7 Tribhuvan– I think this horse gets loose on the front and takes it all the way much like two starts ago. Has done well at a price before and will be back to being a price after faltering last time as a 2-1 choice.

#1 Adhamo– Keeps getting better and is ready to fire another good race here.  Pace is the only thing working against him but he will be flying late. Has beaten some of these same horses before.

#6 Gufo– Always flying late and there at the end as he has finished in the trifecta in sixteen of eighteen career races. Has performed well at Saratoga and has won three of five career races at this distance. Pace is working against him but he does get the addition of Blinkers so maybe he will be closer to the pace.

PLAYS: $20 win #7 $1 exbox 1,6,7 $1 tribox 1,6,7

 

Saratoga Race 11 – $1.25 M TRAVERS STAKES GRADE I 

PACE PROJECTION:  Looks like #7 Early Voting will go for the early lead while while a few horses track him and just sit off including the #1 Cyberknife, #6 Epicenter, and #8 Zandon.

 

#6 Epicenter– Has been in the exacta in every one of his eight races after his debut race. The races he has finished second he ran great and could of won anyone of those. Clearly the horse to beat just a matter of the trip.  One of only two horses in this field to have a win at Saratoga the other is the #5 Artorius.

#1 Cyberknife– Has won four of his last five races only lost was the Kentucky Derby. Has gotten really good and could be sitting on another big race. From the rail could work out a nice trip right behind the pace setter #7 Early Voting.

#7 Early Voting– If left alone on the lead and he gets the distance could be very tough and you could get very good odds which would be worth the chance. Gets a second try at Saratoga last race tired badly and ended up finishing out of the money. 

PLAYS:  $2 Tri 1,6,7 $10 Exacta 6/1,7 $5 Exacta 7/6 

 

22 to 1 Tom’s Tips

Saratoga Race 9 – $600,000 PERSONALS ENSIGN STAKES GRADE I

3 – Clairiere

This season 3 wins from 4 starts, running 2nd in the Apple Blossom

There are 3 speed horses in the race and if they get cooked on the lead, she wins

Remember, in the Apple Blossom, she was coming on at the end

The extra furlong helps

5 – Malathaat

Last out, bumped enough and maybe moving too early to win?

She still ran 2nd.

3 starts this season, 1 win 2 seconds to this group

Always trying but win?

4 – Crazy Beautiful

Her 1 win is on the AW surface at Turfway

But, she ran in the money 2 other times from her 5 starts

Showed speed last out and that didn’t work

If she more tactical, she will run in the money

 

Saratoga Race 10 – $750,000 SWORD DANCER STAKES GRADE I

6 – Gufo

Toss last, trouble at start, never really in the race until late.

Will the change of equipment, add blinkers, make a difference in getting him into the winners circle, I think so

He has 5 starts at this distance 3 wins 1 third

I think he’s in the right spot, with plenty of speed of front to catch this group at the end

3 – Broome

This 6-year-old did he’s best running in the Hartwicke at Royal Ascot in group 2 beating a group 1 type horses in the race

Last out, never really into the race but faced a world traveler (Pyledriver) who won, the Arc winner last year and a multi-winner including the Saudi Cup and in Dubai plus races in England, France, etc… and was just beaten by the top rated horse in the world – Baaeed.

Is the group at that level? Maybe one or 2 but not for me.

Remember, he ran second in the BC Turf behind Yibir

Ryan Moore in for the ride but he hasn’t done much with his rides in the states but….

1 – Adhamo

Good win at MTH last out, ran on with not asking to do that much

In his 4 starts in the states, he’s never been out of the money

No grade/group 1 wins yet but certain fits here with his stablemate setting the pace for him to be running at the end

 

Saratoga Race 11 – $1.25 M TRAVERS STAKES GRADE I

1 – Cyberknife

Since the KY Derby, he’s won both his races

One by staking the pace

One by being on the pace

In he’s career, he’s run 2 bad races, KY Derby & Lecomte

He will continue he’s winning ways vs. this good bunch of 3 yrs.

5 – Artorius

3 races with 2 wins 1 second

Stakes debut was in a restricted race at Saratoga winning by 4+L, moved up and went by

He has a fast stablemate who will be on the lead and with pace scenario, he will be flying at the end

8 – Zandon

Move up but didn’t finish last out in the Jim Dandy

This was after his 3rd in the KY Derby, may have needed a race last out

Runs back to the Blue Grass race, coming through traffic and didn’t quit

Never out of the money in any of his races, should be right there at the end

 

 

Rich’s Ranks

Saratoga Race 9 – $600,000 PERSONALS ENSIGN STAKES GRADE I

3 – CLAIRIERE

5 – MALATHAAT

1 – LETRUSKA

2 – SEARCH RESULTS

 

Saratoga Race 10 – $750,000 SWORD DANCER STAKES GRADE I

6 – GUFO

3 – BROOME

8 – SOLDIER RISING

7 – TRIBHUVAN

 

Saratoga Race 11 – $1.25 M TRAVERS STAKES GRADE I

6 – EPICENTER

8 – ZANDON

7 – EARLY VOTING

5 – ARTORIUS

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