Former jockey, mother and advocate for thoroughbreds after their racing careers, Rosie Napravnik is this week’s The Player’s Edge Guest.
She joins Terry, Tom, Shawn, and Rich to discuss her career and make some picks for Fair Grounds Saturday races. A track she knows very well, winning multiple jockey titles at the Louisiana track.
Make sure you follow Rosie and all the good work she does on Twitter: https://twitter.com/RosieNapravnik
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Fair Grounds Race 5
3 – Creole Charlie has won two races out of the last three races, improving his speed rating in each of the three races. He has a good 4F workout on Nov 16 FG 4f ft :49.2B 7/24. His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
2 – Touchdown Joe has done well in his only two starts at The Fairgrounds finishing third and then winning his last start at today’s distance.
6 – Chrompton – after almost a three-month break he ran second at The Fairgrounds. He had a workout on 27Dec’21 FG 4f ft :49.1 B 39/103 in preparation for this race.
5 – Janets Jay Jay has finished in the money six out of the last seven races, improving his speed number in each of the last three races. He has a good trainer & jockey.
Fair Grounds Race 6
8 – Clear Humor after winning his last race at Laurel he comes in to try The Fairgrounds. He drops in class today and the trainer wins 33% of the Claiming races he enters his horses in. He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
1A – Policy Option finished third in his first race at The Fairgrounds after experiencing trouble. He has two bullet works in a row. He is coupled with Empty Holster who finished second in his last two races trying the Fairgrounds for the first time.
4 – Duke of Carthania has done well at The Fairgrounds finishing in the money two out of three starts, winning one of the races. He finished second at Woodbine beaten by only a nose and received the highest last race speed rating. He is dropping in class today and has a good a workout on 31Dec’21 FG 4f ft :48.4 B 18/114.
2 – Go Speed Racer Go won his first race at The Fairgrounds by a head on the turf. He can either run on top to win or come from behind.
Fair Grounds Race 7
3 – Hombrazo finished 3rd vs similar in last race at The Fairgrounds. He can handle the distance finishing in the money in four races out of six races. His best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and he has a good 5F workout on 30Dec’21 FG 1:01 B 2/23.
4 – Scarlet Fusion has finished seven out of eight races in the money during this year winning one of the races. He earned the highest last race speed rating and has one of the best dirt speeds among today’s starters (tie).
6 – Luckenbacher will improve while returning to dirt where he seems to do better. He likes the track finishing two out of three races in the money and has finished 100% of the time in the money at today’s distance, winning 40% of the races.
1 – Cabertoss has won 25% of his starts this year and likes the distance finishing in the money four out of eight races winning two of the races.
$1.50 Pick 3-Cost: $96.00
Race 5: 2, 3, 5, 6
Race 6: 1A, 2, 4, 8
Race 7: 1, 3, 4, 6
Swiss Army Shawn’s Selections
Fair Grounds Race 5
PACE PROJECTION: Looks to be only one horse in this race that wants the early lead and that’s the ML favorite #3 Creole Charlie
#3 Creike Charlie- Should be able to get the early lead easily. Has won 2 of his last 3 races. The only horse in the field with multiple wins at Fairgrounds.
#6 Chrompton- The least experienced horse in the field but has a win and a second in his only two starts on dirt. Juan Vargas not a good percentage jockey but has ridden this horse in every race.
#2 Touchdown Joe- Won last race to break his maiden at Fairgrounds and it was the first time Colby Hernandez was aboard. Can show some speed maybe this is the one to track the ML favorite.
Plays: $20 win #3 $5 Ex 3/2,6 $1 Tribox 2,3,6
Fair Grounds Race 6
PACE PROJECTION: I see two horses going for the early lead here #2 Go Speed Racer Go and #8 Clear Humor with the #8 most likely to get it.
#8 Clear Humor- Will be trying turf for only the second time. Might have more success this time with more speed from the gate. Trainer Brittany Russel hits at 33% in claiming races. Gets James Graham for the first time.
#7 Smokey Harbor- Second race after a layoff an angle the trainer wins at 25%. Finished second in his comeback and had a nice workout in between races. Has finished in the trifecta in half of his career turf races 4 of 8 winning 2 of them.
#9 East Lex- Has put back to back good races together. Moves up in class but can definitely add value if he performs well again. Has been in the trifecta in 4 of 6 career races at Fairgrounds.
Plays: $20 win 8 $1 exb 7,8,9 $1 Tribox 7,8,9
Fair Grounds Race 7
PACE PROJECTION: The three inside horses look to be the speed of the race.
#3 Hombrazo- Tries Fairgrounds for the 2nd straight race at the same distance and gets Deshawn Parker again. This time might be able to clear for the lead as the other speed of the race is on the inside of him. Had a really good workout after last race.
#4 Scarlet Fusion- Will be there as he has finished in the trifecta in 8 of 11 career races. Hard to take as the favorite as he has only won one of those races and that was on the turf. Could benefit from a speed duel with the horses to the inside of him.
#2 Editor in Chief- The least experienced horse in the field with only 5 career starts. Is dropping in class and returning to dirt. Has been off for 9 months with just ok workouts so would be hard to take at a low price.
Plays: $20 Win 3 $6 ex 3/2,4
22 to 1 Tom’s Tips
Fair Grounds Race 5
3 – Creole Charlie
Comes off a front running win at 12,5k vs state-breds by 8L+
Claimed and places in this 6F allowance state-bred event
Last 2 speed numbers at impressive vs this field
Trainers numbers of first of the claim is 42% from 7 starters
Favorite so little value here
6 – Chrompton
All 3 efforts have been good overall with last race adding blinkers and ran 2nd with a strong 86 speed rating
Better trip, not 3 wide he would benefit from
Negative: trainer has no wins at the meeting and when the jockey/trainer pair up in last 60 days 11 starters, no wins
In the money but win? Maybe this time?
5 – Janets Jay Jay
1st start off layoff with good effort running wide and did enough for 2nd
Looks like the trainer hasn’t found the type of horse he has, sprinter or router running
Distances of 5 1/2F to 1 mile 70 yards
With 1 win and 7 placings, it hard for me to see a breakthrough unless he matures from last season
Fair Grounds Race 6
8 – Clear Humor
There appears to be one speed horse on the inside who may want the lead but with good position from the outside, this should be the front runner
Winner of NY bred race (MC4000) at Saratoga in front running style then one bad effort, moved to Laurel with better results
For me, the key here is get the lead and let them come running, James Graham will have to use this horse a bit at the beginning because this is the first time from an outside post
4 – Duke of Carhania
Drops from 40k effort at Woodbine coming from behind to miss by a nose
Speed number was good and 2nd off layoff will we see more improvement?
Some adventures in other races with starting gate problems to coming out wide off the turn
Has Mark Casse found a spot to win or did he drop the horse to get claimed and will slow little here?
In his last couple of races, at various tracks, the overall results are not good, so is this the spot for a win?
7 – Smokey Harbor
First start off layoff was interest, especially at the start but still able to overcome this and run a good second running a little wide as the favorite
Drops in distance and has won twice from 7 attempts at the 1 mile
He’s been ok on the move turf to dirt track with the 2 wins are at 71/2F and 1 mile (2 turns) off going
Overall, he really doesn’t run bad races and this 2nd start off layoff at this level maybe just what he needs to win
Fair Grounds Race 7
5 – Perfect Cut
Comes into this race for layoff from running 1 ¼ miles with a strangely run race moving a little too early
Works are acceptable coming into the race
Is the drop enough to get the win vs this field
Negative – never won around 2 turns (both wins at 1 mile, 1 turn)
4 – Scarlet Fusion
Morning line favorite but I don’t know why because of only 1 win (on the turf) and too many placings 7 times
He’s last 3 races are good, but he ran at this level last time and didn’t win
Distance is fine, 2 turns ok, in the money finish again…
I have to put him in because of his placing record with 11 starts
3 – Hombrazo
Claimed 2 back and new trainer changed this running style a bit, on the frontend did enough to place 3rd
He’s won at the distance (2 turns) once from 6 tries (placing 3 times)
The trainer now has a work before this race and running him back in the same type of race/conditions
So what are they going to do this time?
Rich’s Ranks
Fair Grounds Race 5
3 – Creole Charlie
6 – Chrompton
5 – Janet’s Jay Jay
2 – Touchdown Joe
Fair Grounds Race 6
4 – Duke of Carthania
7 – Smokey Harbor
8 – Clear Humor
1/1A – Empry Holster/Policy Option
Fair Grounds Race 7
6 – Luckenbacher
4 – Scarlet Fusion
3 – Hombrazo
